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时间序列分析在天文学和气象学中的应用AI 解读

Part 1 Time series - theory and methodology: A short history of time series, M.B. Priestley Frequency estimation, E.J. Hannan et al Asymptotic expansion of estimators for diffusions with small noises, N. Yoshida Spatial-temporal spectral analysis with random sampling, I-Shang Chow, Ken-Shin Lii Detection of periodicities, M.B. Priestley Spectral and multivariate probability density estimation of continuous time stationary processes from randomly sampled data, Elias Masry…

弱依赖数据下的筛极值估计AI 解读

Many non/semiparametric time series estimates may be regarded as different forms of sieve extremum estimates. For stationary absolute regular mixing observations, the authors obtain convergence rates of sieve extremurn estimates and root-n asymptotic normality of 'plug-in' sieve extremum estimates of smooth functionals. As applications to time series models, they give convergence rates for nonparametric ARX(p,q) regression via neural networks, splines, wavelets; root-n…

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人工神经网络的预测区间AI 解读

The artificial neural network (ANN) is becoming a very popular model for engineering and scientific applications. Inspired by brain architecture, artificial neural networks represent a class of nonlinear models capable of learning from data. Neural networks have been applied in many areas, including pattern matching, classification, prediction, and process control. This article focuses on the construction of prediction intervals. Previous statistical theory for constructing…

回归与分类中的估计组合AI 解读

We consider the problem of how to combine a collection of general regression fit vectors to obtain a better predictive model. The individual fits may be from subset linear regression, ridge regression, or something more complex like a neural network. We develop a general framework for this problem and examine a cross-validation—based proposal called “model mix” or “stacking” in this context. We also derive combination methods based on the bootstrap and analytic methods and…

基于数据依赖分区的直方图回归估计AI 解读

We establish general sufficient conditions for the $L_2$-consistency of multivariate histogram regression estimates based on data-dependent partitions. These same conditions insure the consistency of partitioning regression estimates based on local polynomial fits, and, with an additional regularity assumption, the consistency of histogram estimates for conditional medians. Our conditions require shrinking cells, subexponential growth of a combinatorial complexity measure…

使用前馈与循环神经网络预测汇率AI 解读

Abstract In this paper we investigate the out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of feedforward and recurrent neural networks based on empirical foreign exchange rate data. A two‐step procedure is proposed to construct suitable networks, in which networks are selected based on the predictive stochastic complexity (PSC) criterion, and the selected networks are estimated using both recursive Newton algorithms and the method of nonlinear least squares. Our results show that PSC is a…

利用线性模型与人工神经网络评估期限结构信息的模型选择方法AI 解读

We take a model selection approach to the question of whether forward interest rates are useful in predicting future spot rates, using a variety of out-of-sample forecast-based model selection criteria: forecast mean squared error, forecast direction accuracy, and forecast-based trading system profitability. We also examine the usefulness of a class of novel prediction models called 'artificial neural networks,' and investigate the issue of appropriate window sizes for…

回归中的删除影响与掩蔽AI 解读

SUMMARY The paper is concerned with masking of Cook's distance, the popular deletion measure of influence of individual data cases in linear regression. Masking is broadly concerned with the limitations imposed by the use of individual cases. Two specific views are drawn from quotations: the first is associated with the established idea of joint influence, i.e. the deletion of two or more cases simultaneously, and the second is conditional influence, i.e. the calculation of…

时间序列模型中遗漏非线性的检验AI 解读

In this paper a new test, the neural network test for neglected nonlinearity, is compared with the Keenan test, the Tsay test, the White dynamic information matrix test, the McLeod-Li test, the Ramsey RESET test, the Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman test, and the Bispectrum test. The neural network test is based on the approximating ability of neural network modeling techniques recently developed by cognitive scientists. This test is a Lagrange multiplier test that statistically…

Hilbert空间贪婪逼近引理及投影寻踪回归与神经网络训练的收敛率AI 解读

A general convergence criterion for certain iterative sequences in Hilbert space is presented. For an important subclass of these sequences, estimates of the rate of convergence are given. Under very mild assumptions these results establish an $O(1/ \sqrt n)$ nonsampling convergence rate for projection pursuit regression and neural network training; where $n$ represents the number of ridge functions, neurons or coefficients in a greedy basis expansion.

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