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博弈中的稳定结果与信息：一个实证框架AI 解读

Empirically, many strategic settings are characterized by stable outcomes in which players’ decisions are publicly observed, yet no player takes the opportunity to deviate. To analyze such situations in the presence of incomplete information, we build an empirical framework by introducing a novel solution concept that we call Bayes stable equilibrium and computationally tractable approaches for estimation and inference. Our framework allows the researcher to be agnostic…

随机实验中溢出效应的识别与估计AI 解读

I study identification, estimation and inference for spillover effects in experiments where units’ outcomes may depend on the treatment assignments of other units within a group. I show that the commonly-used reduced-form linear-in-means regression identifies a weighted sum of spillover effects with some negative weights, and that the difference in means between treated and controls identifies a combination of direct and spillover effects entering with different signs. I…

对《两个数据集的故事：网络样本推断的代表性与可推广性》的讨论AI 解读

I congratulate the authors on their timely and insightful article. Since the advent of network analysis, there has been the question of the meaning of sample size in a network setting, which in the...

小型网络中的检验功效与多重共线性：关于网络样本推断的评论AI 解读

The recent work by Krivitsky, Coletti & Hens [KCH] provides an important new contribution to the Exponential-Family Random Graph Models [ERGMs], a start-to-finish approach to dealing with multi-network ERGMs. Although multi-network ERGMs have been around for a while (mostly in the form of block-diagonal models and multi-level ERGMs, see Duxbury and Wertsching (2023), Wang et al. (2013), Slaughter and Koehly (2016)), not much care has been given to the estimation and…

两个数据集的故事：网络样本推断的代表性与可推广性AI 解读

The last two decades have seen considerable progress in foundational aspects of statistical network analysis, but the path from theory to application is not straightforward.Two large, heterogeneous samples of small networks of within-household contacts in Belgium were collected using two different but complementary sampling designs: one smaller but with all contacts in each household observed, the other larger and more representative but recording contacts of only one person…

利用贝叶斯非参数共同原子回归构建临床试验合成对照AI 解读

The availability of electronic health records (EHR) has opened opportunities to supplement increasingly expensive and difficult to carry out randomized controlled trials (RCT) with evidence from readily available real world data. In this paper, we use EHR data to construct synthetic control arms for treatment-only single arm trials. We propose a novel nonparametric Bayesian common atoms mixture model that allows us to find equivalent population strata in the EHR and the…

关于《两个数据集的故事：网络样本推断的代表性与可推广性》的讨论AI 解读

The notions of sample and population have been at the heart of statistics since R.A. Fisher and others distinguished sample quantities from population quantities. While sample-to-population inferen...

容纳风险估计中的时变异质性：Cox 模型下的迁移学习AI 解读

Transfer learning has attracted increasing attention in recent years for adaptively borrowing information across different data cohorts in various settings. Cancer registries have been widely used in clinical research because of their easy accessibility and large sample size. Our method is motivated by the question of how to utilize cancer registry data as a complement to improve the estimation precision of individual risks of death for inflammatory breast cancer (IBC)…

大型电子健康记录分析：稀有事件下的最优 Cox 回归子抽样AI 解读

Massive sized survival datasets become increasingly prevalent with the development of the healthcare industry, and pose computational challenges unprecedented in traditional survival analysis use cases. In this work we analyze the UK-biobank colorectal cancer data with genetic and environmental risk factors, including a time-dependent coefficient, which transforms the dataset into “pseudo-observation” form, thus, critically inflating its size. A popular way for coping with…

什么是随机化检验？AI 解读

The meaning of randomization tests has become obscure in statistics education and practice over the last century.This article makes a fresh attempt at rectifying this core concept of statistics.A new term-"quasirandomization test"-is introduced to define significance tests based on theoretical models and distinguish these tests from the "randomization tests" based on the physical act of randomization.The practical importance of this distinction is illustrated through a real…

用于变量选择的可逆跳跃分段确定性马尔可夫过程采样器AI 解读

A new class of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, based on simulating piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs), has recently shown great promise: they are nonreversible, can mix better than standard MCMC algorithms, and can use subsampling ideas to speed up computation in big data scenarios. However, current PDMP samplers can only sample from posterior densities that are differentiable almost everywhere, which precludes their use for model choice. Motivated…

结构化秩相关矩阵的假设检验AI 解读

Joint modeling of a large number of variables often requires dimension reduction strategies that lead to structural assumptions of the underlying correlation matrix, such as equal pair-wise correlations within subsets of variables. The underlying correlation matrix is thus of interest for both model specification and model validation. In this article, we develop tests of the hypothesis that the entries of the Kendall rank correlation matrix are linear combinations of a…

强化学习策略评估的在线自助法推断AI 解读

The recent emergence of reinforcement learning (RL) has created a demand for robust statistical inference methods for the parameter estimates computed using these algorithms. Existing methods for inference in online learning are restricted to settings involving independently sampled observations, while inference methods in RL have so far been limited to the batch setting. The bootstrap is a flexible and efficient approach for statistical inference in online learning…

适用于非参数收敛速度的置换检验AI 解读

Classical two-sample permutation tests for equality of distributions have exact size in finite samples, but they fail to control size for testing equality of parameters that summarize each distribution. This paper proposes permutation tests for equality of parameters that are estimated at root-$n$ or slower rates. Our general framework applies to both parametric and nonparametric models, with two samples or one sample split into two subsamples. Our tests have correct size…

合成似然贝叶斯推断：渐近性质与调整AI 解读

Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in complex models, especially when calculating the likelihood is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference when the likelihood is intractable, but it is straightforward to simulate from the model. The method constructs an approximate likelihood by taking a vector summary statistic as being multivariate normal, with the unknown mean and covariance estimated by simulation.…

条件可分离效应AI 解读

Researchers are often interested in treatment effects on outcomes that are only defined conditional on posttreatment events. For example, in a study of the effect of different cancer treatments on quality of life at end of follow-up, the quality of life of individuals who die during the study is undefined. In these settings, naive contrasts of outcomes conditional on posttreatment events are not average causal effects, even in randomized experiments. Therefore, the effect in…

高维生存数据的秩驱动贪心模型平均AI 解读

Model averaging is an effective way to enhance prediction accuracy. However, most previous works focus on low-dimensional settings with completely observed responses. To attain an accurate prediction for the risk effect of survival data with high-dimensional predictors, we propose a novel method: rank-based greedy (RG) model averaging. Specifically, adopting the transformation model with splitting predictors as working models, we doubly use the smooth concordance index…

基于最大似然的近似选择后推断AI 解读

Several strategies have been developed recently to ensure valid inference after model selection; some of these are easy to compute, while others fare better in terms of inferential power. In this article, we consider a selective inference framework for Gaussian data. We propose a new method for inference through approximate maximum likelihood estimation. Our goal is to: (a) achieve better inferential power with the aid of randomization, (b) bypass expensive MCMC sampling…

通过折中回归权重改进小域估计AI 解读

Shrinkage estimates of small domain parameters typically use a combination of a noisy “direct” estimate that only uses data from a specific small domain and a more stable regression estimate. When the regression model is misspecified, estimation performance for the noisier domains can suffer due to substantial shrinkage toward a poorly estimated regression surface. In this article, we introduce a new class of robust, empirically-driven regression weights that target…

事件时间结局下最优个体化决策规则的变换不变学习AI 解读

In many important applications of precision medicine, the outcome of interest is time to an event (e.g., death, relapse of disease) and the primary goal is to identify the optimal individualized decision rule (IDR) to prolong survival time. Existing work in this area have been mostly focused on estimating the optimal IDR to maximize the restricted mean survival time in the population. We propose a new robust framework for estimating an optimal static or dynamic IDR with…

删失分位数回归的高效估计AI 解读

Censored quantile regression (CQR) has received growing attention in survival analysis because of its flexibility in modeling heterogeneous effect of covariates. Advances have been made in developing various inferential procedures under different assumptions and settings. Under the conditional independence assumption, many existing CQR methods can be characterized either by stochastic integral-based estimating equations (see, e.g., Peng and Huang) or by locally weighted…

高维广义线性模型下的迁移学习AI 解读

In this work, we study the transfer learning problem under high-dimensional generalized linear models (GLMs), which aim to improve the fit on target data by borrowing information from useful source data. Given which sources to transfer, we propose a transfer learning algorithm on GLM, and derive its l1/l2-estimation error bounds as well as a bound for a prediction error measure. The theoretical analysis shows that when the target and sources are sufficiently close to each…

凸性约束模型中局部参数的统计推断AI 解读

In this article, we develop automated inference methods for “local” parameters in a collection of convexity constrained models based on the natural constrained tuning-free estimators. A canonical example is given by the univariate convex regression model, in which automated inference is drawn for the function value, the function derivative at a fixed interior point, and the anti-mode of the convex regression function, based on the widely used tuning-free, piecewise linear…

多输出分位数回归的贝叶斯方法AI 解读

This paper presents a Bayesian approach to multiple-output quantile regression. The unconditional model is proven to be consistent and asymptotically correct frequentist confidence intervals can be obtained. The prior for the unconditional model can be elicited as the ex-ante knowledge of the distance of the tau-Tukey depth contour to the Tukey median, the first prior of its kind. A proposal for conditional regression is also presented. The model is applied to the Tennessee…