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弱可分随机前沿模型的非参数估计AI 解读

We propose a robust and versatile approach to estimate the stochastic frontier model which avoids parametric assumptions. Our approach requires a single continuous covariate which monotonically influences the conditional mean of inefficiency. Subject to these conditions, the frontier and the conditional mean of inefficiency can be estimated nonparametrically. The estimator we propose uses local least squares and marginal integration making it easy to implement across…

多重均衡下不完全信息序贯博弈的识别与估计AI 解读

This paper discusses the identification and estimation of game-theoretic models, mainly focusing on sequential games of incomplete information. In most empirical games, researchers cannot observe the exact order of actions played in the game and rely on the assumption of simultaneous actions. My structural modeling generalizes an empirical game to encompass simultaneous and sequential actions as special cases. I specify a sequential game allowing for multiple players in each…

大规模网络空间自回归模型的分布式估计与推断AI 解读

The rapid growth of online network platforms generates large-scale network data and it poses great challenges for statistical analysis using the spatial autoregression (SAR) model. In this work, we develop a novel distributed estimation and statistical inference framework for the SAR model on a distributed system. We first propose a distributed network least squares approximation (DNLSA) method. This enables us to obtain a one-step estimator by taking a weighted average of…

自回归条件贝塔模型AI 解读

This paper introduces an autoregressive conditional beta (ACB) model that allows regressions with dynamic betas (or slope coefficients) and residuals with GARCH conditional volatility. The model fits in the (quasi) score-driven approach recently proposed in the literature, and it is semi-parametric in the sense that the distributions of the innovations are not necessarily specified. The time-varying betas are allowed to depend on past shocks and exogenous variables. We…

高维工具变量协整估计与推断AI 解读

A semiparametric triangular systems approach shows how multicointegrating linkages occur naturally in an I(1) cointegrated regression model when the long run error variance matrix in the system is singular. Under such singularity, cointegrated I(1) systems embody a multicointegrated structure that makes them useful in many empirical settings. Earlier work shows that such systems may be analyzed and estimated without appealing to the associated I(2) system but with suboptimal…

强依赖误差下爆炸性行为的稳健检验AI 解读

A heteroskedasticity-autocorrelation robust (HAR) test statistic is proposed to test for the presence of explosive roots in financial or real asset prices when the equation errors are strongly dependent. Limit theory for the test statistic is developed and extended to heteroskedastic models. The new test has stable size properties unlike conventional test statistics that typically lead to size distortion and inconsistency in the presence of strongly dependent equation…

非平稳条件下 HAR 检验的 fixed-b 极限分布与拒绝概率误差AI 解读

We show that the limiting distribution of HAR test statistics under fixed-b asymptotics is not pivotal when the data are nonstationary (i.e., time-varying autocovariance structure). It takes the form of a complicated function of Gaussian processes and depends on the second moments of the relevant series (e.g., of the regressors and errors for the case of the linear regression model). Hence, fixed-b inference methods based on stationarity are not theoretically valid in…

ACD 模型的尾部行为及其对似然估计的影响AI 解读

We establish new results for estimation and inference in financial durations models, where events are observed over a given time span, such as a trading day, or a week. For the classical autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models by Engle and Russell (1998), we show that the large sample behavior of likelihood estimators is highly sensitive to the tail behavior of the financial durations. In particular, even under stationarity, asymptotic normality breaks down for tail…

弱代理变量下代理 SVAR 的识别与检验策略AI 解读

When proxies (external instruments) used to identify target structural shocks are weak, inference in proxy-SVARs (SVAR-IVs) is nonstandard and the construction of asymptotically valid confidence sets for the impulse responses of interest requires weak-instrument robust methods. In the presence of multiple target shocks, test inversion techniques require extra restrictions on the proxy-SVAR parameters other than those implied by the proxies that may be difficult to interpret…

利用二元工具变量估计服从者预期短缺处理效应AI 解读

Estimating the causal effect of a treatment or exposure for a subpopulation is of great interest in many biomedical and economical studies. Expected shortfall, also referred to as the super-quantile, is an attractive effect-size measure that can accommodate data heterogeneity and aggregate local information of effect over a certain region of interest of the outcome distribution. In this article, we propose the ComplieRExpected Shortfall Treatment Effect (CRESTE) model under…

一般政策干预的无条件效应AI 解读

This paper studies the unconditional effects of a general policy intervention, which includes location-scale shifts and simultaneous shifts as special cases. The location-scale shift is intended to study a counterfactual policy aimed at changing not only the mean or location of a covariate but also its dispersion or scale. The simultaneous shift refers to the situation where shifts in two or more covariates take place simultaneously. For example, a shift in one covariate is…

连续时间动态离散博弈的嵌套伪似然估计AI 解读

We introduce a sequential estimator for continuous time dynamic discrete choice models (single-agent models and games) by adapting the nested pseudo likelihood (NPL) estimator of Aguirregabiria and Mira (2002, 2007), developed for discrete time models with discrete time data, to the continuous time case with data sampled either discretely (i.e., uniformly-spaced snapshot data) or continuously. We establish conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator,…

部分识别拍卖模型的信息论方法AI 解读

We consider a situation in which we have data from ascending auctions with symmetric bidders, independent private values, and exogenous entry in which the bidders’ value distribution is partially identified. Focusing on the case in which the seller intends to use a second price auction, we discuss how to determine an optimal reserve price. We justify the use of maximum entropy, explore the properties of the estimand, determine the asymptotic properties of our maximum entropy…

结构突变的 KS 型检验：基于调整极差的自归一化方法AI 解读

A popular self-normalization (SN) approach in time series analysis uses the variance of a partial sum as a self-normalizer. This is known to be sensitive to irregularities such as persistent autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, unit roots and outliers. We propose a novel SN approach based on the adjusted-range of a partial sum, which is robust to these aforementioned irregularities. We develop an adjusted-range based Kolmogorov–Smirnov type test for structural breaks for…

条件风险价值的残差自助法AI 解读

A fixed-design residual bootstrap method is proposed for the two-step estimator of Francq and Zakoïan(2015) associated with the conditional Value-at-Risk. The bootstrap’s consistency is proven for a general class of volatility models and intervals are constructed for the conditional Value-at-Risk. A simulation study reveals that the equal-tailed percentile bootstrap interval tends to fall short of its nominal value. In contrast, the reversed-tails bootstrap interval yields…

多弱工具变量下的条件线性组合检验AI 解读

We consider a linear combination of jackknife Anderson-Rubin (AR), jackknife Lagrangian multiplier (LM), and orthogonalized jackknife LM tests for inference in IV regressions with many weak instruments and heteroskedasticity. Following I.Andrews (2016), we choose the weights in the linear combination based on a decision-theoretic rule that is adaptive to the identification strength. Under both weak and strong identifications, the proposed test controls asymptotic size and is…

部分识别控制函数模型中的推断AI 解读

In multiple contributions to the literature, James L. Powell and coauthors have developed estimators for semiparametric models where sample selectivity and/or endogeneity can be handled through a “control function”. Their methods rely on pairwise comparisons of observations which match (asymptotically) the control functions. Conditional on this matching, a moment condition can identify the parameters of the model. However, there exist instances where the control functions…

存在误分类与社会互动的二元选择模型：态度同伴效应应用AI 解读

The interaction of economic agents is one of the most important elements in economic analyses. Social interactions on subjective outcomes, behavior, or decisions, are inherently difficult to identify and estimate because these variables are prone to misclassification errors. This paper puts forth a binary choice model with misclassification and social interactions to rectify the misclassification problems in social interactions studies. We achieve the identification of the…

混杂变量维度增长时利用神经网络推断一般处理效应AI 解读

Semiparametric efficient estimation of various multi-valued causal effects, including quantile treatment effects, is important in economic, biomedical, and other social sciences. Under the unconfoundedness condition, adjustment for confounders requires estimating the nuisance functions relating outcome or treatment to confounders nonparametrically. This paper considers a generalized optimization framework for efficient estimation of general treatment effects using artificial…

矩条件模型中识别失效的检测AI 解读

This paper develops an approach to detect identification failure in moment condition models. This is achieved by introducing a quasi-Jacobian matrix computed as the slope of a linear approximation of the moments on an estimate of the identified set. It is asymptotically singular when local and/or global identification fails, and equivalent to the usual Jacobian matrix which has full rank when the model is globally and locally identified. Building on this property, a simple…

正态混合误差下非平稳位置模型的极大似然估计AI 解读

We consider an observation-driven location model where the unobserved location variable is modeled as a random walk process and where the error variable is from a mixture of normal distributions. The time-varying location can be extended with a stationary process to account for cyclical and/or higher order autocorrelation. The mixed normal distribution can accurately approximate many continuous error distributions. We obtain a flexible modeling framework for the robust…

含协整解释变量的半参数单指数预测回归AI 解读

This paper considers the estimation of a semi-parametric single-index regression model that allows for nonlinear predictive relationships. This model is useful for predicting financial asset returns, whose observed behaviour resembles a stationary process, if the multiple nonstationary predictors are cointegrated. The presence of cointegrated regressors imposes a single-index structure in the model, and this structure not only balances the nonstationarity properties of the…

面板实验中的群体干扰AI 解读

The phenomenon of population interference, where a treatment assigned to one experimental unit affects another experimental unit’s outcome, has received considerable attention in standard randomized experiments. The complications produced by population interference in this setting are now readily recognized, and partial remedies are well known. Less understood is the impact of population interference in panel experiments where treatment is sequentially randomized in the…

高维随机向量相互独立性的秩最大值—求和检验AI 解读

We consider the problem of testing mutual independence of high-dimensional random vectors, and propose a series of high-dimensional rank-based max-sum tests, which are suitable for high-dimensional data and can be robust to distribution types of the variables, form of the dependence between variables and the sparsity of correlation coefficients. Further, we demonstrate the application of some representative members of the proposed tests on testing cross-sectional…