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样本选择下的分布差异分解与性别工资差距AI 解读

I address the decomposition of the differences between the distribution of outcomes of two groups when individuals self-select themselves into participation. I differentiate between the decomposition for participants and the entire population, highlighting how the primitive components of the model affect each of the distributions of outcomes. Additionally, I introduce two ancillary decompositions that help uncover the sources of differences in the distribution of…

高维协变量下对异方差稳健的过度识别约束检验AI 解读

This paper proposes an overidentifying restriction test for high-dimensional linear instrumental variable models. The novelty of the proposed test is that it allows the number of covariates and instruments to be larger than the sample size. The test is scale-invariant and robust to heteroskedastic errors. To construct the final test statistic, we first introduce a test based on the maximum norm of multiple parameters that could be high-dimensional. The theoretical power…

已处理者分位数处理效应的双重差分估计量AI 解读

We propose a new difference-in-differences (DID) estimator of the quantile treatment effect on the treated (QTT). The model assumes a common time effect on the cumulative distribution functions of untreated potential outcomes, allowing for covariates. This condition holds if and only if the net change in the untreated outcome densities is common across treated and control groups. Unlike the Changes-in-Changes model proposed by Athey and Imbens (2006), our model is compatible…

独立冲击的核最大似然统计识别及全球原油市场应用AI 解读

Independent component analysis has emerged as a promising approach for revealing structural relationships in multivariate dynamic systems, particularly in scenarios with limited knowledge of causal patterns. This article introduces a robust kernel-based maximum likelihood (KML) estimation method that accommodates the distributional characteristics of the structural sources of data variation. Our Monte Carlo study demonstrates the superior performance of the KML estimator…

样本选择下的因果发生概率：重新分析 Jóvenes en Acción 对正规就业的影响AI 解读

This paper identifies the probability of causation when there is sample selection. We show that the probability of causation is partially identified for individuals who are always observed regardless of treatment status and derive sharp bounds under three increasingly restrictive sets of assumptions. The first set imposes an exogenous treatment and a monotone sample selection mechanism. To tighten these bounds, the second set also imposes the monotone treatment response…

融合不同信息来源的贝叶斯最优投资组合选择AI 解读

This article introduces Bayesian inference procedures for tangency portfolios, with a primary focus on deriving a new conjugate prior for portfolio weights. This approach not only enables direct inference about the weights but also seamlessly integrates additional information into the prior specification. Specifically, it automatically incorporates high-frequency returns and a market condition metric (MCM), exemplified by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and Economic Policy…

Shapley 曲线：平滑估计视角AI 解读

This article fills the limited statistical understanding of Shapley values as a variable importance measure from a nonparametric (or smoothing) perspective.We introduce population-level Shapley curves to measure the true variable importance, determined by the conditional expectation function and the distribution of covariates.Having defined the estimand, we derive minimax convergence rates and asymptotic normality under general conditions for the two leading estimation…

近似随机占优检验AI 解读

We introduce a two-dimensional stochastic dominance (2DSD) index to characterize both strict and almost stochastic dominance. Based on this index, we derive an estimator for the minimum violation ratio (MVR), also known as the critical parameter, of the almost stochastic ordering condition between two variables. We determine the asymptotic properties of the empirical 2DSD index and MVR for the most frequently used stochastic orders. We also provide conditions under which the…

利用参数扩展 SEM 方法估计潜变量面板数据模型AI 解读

This article presents new estimation algorithms for three types of dynamic panel data models with latent variables: factor models, discrete choice models, and persistent-transitory quantile processes. The new methods combine the parameter expansion (PX) ideas of Liu, Rubin, and Wu with the stochastic expectation-maximization (SEM) algorithm in likelihood and moment-based contexts. The goal is to facilitate convergence in models with a large space of latent variables by…

大型偏斜 t Copula 模型与日内股票收益的非对称依赖AI 解读

Skew-t copula models are attractive for the modeling of financial data because they allow for asymmetric and extreme tail dependence.We show that the copula implicit in the skew-t distribution of Azzalini and Capitanio allows for a higher level of pairwise asymmetric dependence than two popular alternative skew-t copulas.Estimation of this copula in high dimensions is challenging, and we propose a fast and accurate Bayesian variational inference (VI) approach to do so.The…

适应趋势与方差变化的贝叶斯变点分析及局部异常值评分AI 解读

We adaptively estimate both changepoints and local outlier processes in a Bayesian dynamic linear model with global-local shrinkage priors in a novel model we call Adaptive Bayesian Changepoints with Outliers (ABCO). We use a state-space approach to identify a dynamic signal in the presence of outliers and measurement error with stochastic volatility. We find that global state equation parameters are inadequate for most real applications and we include local parameters to…

局部平稳过程与二维高斯白噪声的渐近等价性AI 解读

We consider a general class of statistical experiments, in which an n-dimensional centered Gaussian random variable is observed and its covariance matrix is the parameter of interest. The covariance matrix is assumed to be well-approximable in a linear space of lower dimension Kn with eigenvalues uniformly bounded away from zero and infinity. We prove asymptotic equivalence of this experiment and a class of Kn-dimensional Gaussian models with informative expectation in Le…

计算高效检验的精确错误率AI 解读

We revisit the fundamental question of simple-versus-simple hypothesis testing with an eye toward computational complexity, as the statistically optimal likelihood ratio test is often computationally intractable in high-dimensional settings. In the classical spiked Wigner model with a general i.i.d. spike prior, we show (conditional on a conjecture) that an existing test based on linear spectral statistics achieves the best possible trade-off curve between type-I and type-II…

回归系数检验的残差置换方法AI 解读

We consider the problem of testing whether a single coefficient is equal to zero in linear models when the dimension of covariates p can be up to a constant fraction of sample size n. In this regime, an important topic is to propose tests with finite-sample valid size control without requiring the noise to follow strong distributional assumptions. In this paper, we propose a new method, called the residual permutation test (RPT), which is constructed by projecting the…

跨参照总体的稀疏异常检测：基于秩的高阶批判方法AI 解读

Detecting anomalies in large sets of observations is crucial in various applications, such as epidemiological studies, gene expression studies, and systems monitoring. We consider settings where the units of interest result in multiple independent observations from potentially distinct referentials. Scan statistics and related methods are commonly used in such settings, but rely on stringent modeling assumptions for proper calibration. We instead propose a rank-based variant…

Estimation of the average treatment effect (ATE) is a central problem in causal inference. In recent times, inference for the ATE in the presence of high-dimensional covariates has been extensively studied. Among the diverse approaches that have been proposed, augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) with cross-fitting has emerged a popular choice in practice. In this work, we study this cross-fit AIPW estimator under well-specified outcome regression and propensity…

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随机几何对象时间序列的形状分析统计框架AI 解读

We introduce a new framework to analyze shape descriptors that capture the geometric features of an ensemble of point clouds. At the core of our approach is the point of view that the data arises as sampled recordings from a metric space-valued stochastic process, possibly of nonstationary nature, thereby integrating geometric data analysis into the realm of functional time series analysis. Our framework allows for natural incorporation of spatial-temporal dynamics,…

p/n 有界时单指标模型中正则化 M 估计的可观测调整AI 解读

We consider observations (X,y) from single index models with unknown link function, Gaussian covariates and a regularized M-estimator βˆ constructed from convex loss function and regularizer. In the regime where sample size n and dimension p are both increasing such that p/n has a finite limit, the behavior of the empirical distribution of βˆ and the predicted values Xβˆ has been previously characterized in a number of models: The empirical distributions are known to…

析因设计中的前向选择与选择后推断AI 解读

Ever since the seminal work of R. A. Fisher and F. Yates, factorial designs have been an important experimental tool to simultaneously estimate the effects of multiple treatment factors. In factorial designs, the number of treatment combinations grows exponentially with the number of treatment factors, which motivates the forward selection strategy based on the sparsity, hierarchy and heredity principles for factorial effects. Although this strategy is intuitive and has been…

限制条件局部奇异时的 Wald 检验AI 解读

This paper provides an exhaustive characterization of the asymptotic null distribution of Wald-type statistics for testing restrictions given by polynomial functions—which may involve singularities—when the limiting distribution of the parameter estimator is absolutely continuous (e.g., Gaussian). In addition to the well-known finite-sample noninvariance, there is also an asymptotic noninvariance (nonpivotality): with standard critical values, the test may either…

ARK：通过耦合实现稳健的 knockoffs 推断AI 解读

We investigate the robustness of the model-X knockoffs framework with respect to the misspecified or estimated feature distribution. We achieve such a goal by theoretically studying the feature selection performance of a practically implemented knockoffs algorithm, which we name as the approximate knockoffs (ARK) procedure, under the measures of the false discovery rate (FDR) and k-familywise error rate (k-FWER). The approximate knockoffs procedure differs from the model-X…

学生化独立性检验：随机提升方法AI 解读

The exploration of associations between random objects with complex geometric structures has catalyzed the development of various novel statistical tests encompassing distance-based and kernel-based statistics. These methods have various strengths and limitations. One problem is that their test statistics tend to converge to asymptotic null distributions involving second-order Wiener chaos, which are hard to compute and need approximation or permutation techniques that use…

高维独立成分分析：统计最优性与计算可行性AI 解读

In this paper, we investigate the optimal statistical performance and the impact of computational constraints for independent component analysis (ICA). Our goal is twofold. On the one hand, we characterize the precise role of dimensionality on sample complexity and statistical accuracy, and how computational consideration may affect them. In particular, we show that the optimal sample complexity is linear in dimensionality, and interestingly, the commonly used sample…

可能误设的 GMM 模型中的收敛速度自适应 BootstrapAI 解读

We consider inference for possibly misspecified GMM models based on possibly nonsmooth moment conditions. While it is well known that misspecified GMM estimators with smooth moments remain $\sqrt {n}$ consistent and asymptotically normal, globally misspecified nonsmooth GMM estimators are $n^{1/3}$ consistent when either the weighting matrix is fixed or when the weighting matrix is estimated at the $n^{1/3}$ rate or faster. Because the estimator’s nonstandard asymptotic…