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The Best Test of Exponentiality against Singly Truncated Normal Alternatives

针对单侧截断正态备择的指数分布最优检验

We show that the likelihood ratio test of exponentiality against singly truncated normal alternatives is the uniformly most powerful unbiased test and can be expressed in terms of the sampling coefficient of variation. This test is closely related to Greenwood's statistic for testing departures from the uniform distribution. We provide a way to approximate the critical points of the test, using saddlepoint methods, that gives a high degree of accuracy.

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Invariant Exponential Models Applied to Reliability Theory and Survival Analysis

可靠性理论与生存分析中的不变指数模型

For a two-parameter exponential model with increasing failure rate (IFR) or decreasing failure rate (DFR) distributions necessary and sufficient conditions of the existence of a solution of the likelihood equations are given. Also, all of the scale-invariant two-parameter statistical models closed by raising to a power and by exponential tilting are introduced. The conditions of existence of a solution of the likelihood equations are studied for these invariant models, and…

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A General Theory on Stochastic Curtailment for Censored Survival Data

删失生存数据随机提前终止的一般理论

Stochastic curtailment is a valuable tool in monitoring long-term medical studies. Under this approach, one calculates the conditional power, which is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis at the scheduled end of the study given the existing data at the interim analysis, along with certain speculation about the future data. The conditional power may be used to aid the decision to terminate a study prematurely or to extend a study beyond its originally planned…

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A Proportional Hazards Model for the Subdistribution of a Competing Risk

竞争风险子分布的比例风险模型

With explanatory covariates, the standard analysis for competing risks data involves modeling the cause-specific hazard functions via a proportional hazards assumption. Unfortunately, the cause-specific hazard function does not have a direct interpretation in terms of survival probabilities for the particular failure type. In recent years many clinicians have begun using the cumulative incidence function, the marginal failure probabilities for a particular cause, which is…

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Exact Confidence Bounds for all Contrasts of Three or More Regression Lines

三条及以上回归直线所有对比的精确置信界

It is desired to compare κ ≥ 3 treatments. Under the assumption of iid normal errors, it is well known that the Scheffé method produces exact simultaneous confidence bounds for all contrasts of the treatment means. Furthermore, it is known that the Scheffé method is conservative when one desires confidence bounds for a specific subset of contrasts of means. Exact methods, such as those due to Tukey and Dunnett, yield tighter bounds than the Scheffé method for specific…

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Self-Consistency and Principal Component Analysis

自洽性与主成分分析

I examine the self-consistency of a principal component axis; that is, when a distribution is centered about a principal component axis. A principal component axis of a random vector X is self-consistent if each point on the axis corresponds to the mean of X given that X projects orthogonally onto that point. A large class of symmetric multivariate distributions are examined in terms of self-consistency of principal component subspaces. Elliptical distributions are…

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Prediction Intervals, Factor Analysis Models, and High-Dimensional Empirical Linear Prediction

预测区间、因子分析模型与高维经验线性预测

We discuss a technique that provides prediction intervals based on a model called an empirical linear model. The technique, high-dimensional empirical linear prediction (HELP), involves principal component analysis, factor analysis and model selection. In fact, a special case of the empirical model is the factor analysis model. A factor analysis model does not generally aim at prediction, however. Therefore, HELP can be viewed as a technique that provides prediction (and…

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A Fast Procedure for Outlier Diagnostics in Large Regression Problems

大型回归问题中的快速离群诊断程序

We propose a procedure for computing a fast approximation to regression estimates based on the minimization of a robust scale. The procedure can be applied with a large number of independent variables where the usual algorithms require an unfeasible or extremely costly computer time. Also, it can be incorporated in any high-breakdown estimation method and may improve it with just little additional computer time. The procedure minimizes the robust scale over a set of…

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Regression Depth

回归深度

In this article we introduce a notion of depth in the regression setting. It provides the “rank” of any line (plane), rather than ranks of observations or residuals. In simple regression we can compute the depth of any line by a fast algorithm. For any bivariate dataset Z n of size n there exists a line with depth at least n/3. The largest depth in Z n can be used as a measure of linearity versus convexity. In both simple and multiple regression we introduce the deepest…

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Evaluation and Comparison of EEG Traces: Latent Structure in Nonstationary Time Series

脑电轨迹的评估与比较:非平稳时间序列中的潜在结构

We explore and illustrate the use of time series decomposition methods for evaluating and comparing latent structure in nonstationary electroencephalographic (EEG) traces obtained from depressed patients during brain seizures induced as part of electroconvulsive therapy (ECT). Analysis of the patterns of change over time in the frequency structure of such EEG data provides insight into the neurophysiological mechanisms of action of this effective but poorly understood…

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Quality Improvement through Statistical Methods

通过统计方法改进质量

Process description, 62 6.2.2 Model formulation and fitting, 63 6.3 EPC Component: Developing the Control Rule, 63 6.3.1 The Minimum Mean Square Error Controller (MMSEC),64 6.3.2The Two-Step Ahead Forecasting Controller (TSAFC),64 6.3.3Clarke's Constrained Controller (CCC(r)), 65 6.4 Comparison of Control Strategies, 66 6.5 Robustness Properties of the Controllers, 67 6.6 EPC Component: Performance Under Assignable Causes, 69 6.7 SPC Component: Developing Monitoring…

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A Practical Guide to Heavy Tails: Statistical Techniques and Applications

重尾实用指南:统计技术与应用

Part 1 Applications: heavy tailed probability distributions in the World Wide Web, M.E. Crovella et al self-similarity and heavy tails - structural modelling of network traffic, W. Willinger et al heavy tails in high-frequency financial data, U.A. Muller et al stable paretian modelling in finance - some empirical and theoretical aspects, S. Mittnik et al risk management and quantile estimation, F. Bassi et al. Part 2 Time series: analyzing stable time series, R.J. Adler et…

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Dynamic Nonlinear Econometric Models: Asymptotic Theory

动态非线性计量经济模型:渐近理论

1 Introduction.- 2 Models, Data Generating Processes, and Estimators.- 3 Basic Structure of the Classical Consistency Proof.- 4 Further Comments on Consistency Proofs.- 5 Uniform Laws of Large Numbers.- 6 Approximation Concepts and Limit Theorems.- 7 Consistency: Catalogues of Assumptions.- 8 Basic Structure of the Asymptotic Normality Proof.- 9 Asymptotic Normality under Nonstandard Conditions.- 10 Central Limit Theorems.- 11 Asymptotic Normality: Catalogues of…

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Geometrical Foundations of Asymptotic Inference

渐近推断的几何基础

Overview and Preliminaries. ONE-PARAMETER CURVED EXPONENTIAL FAMILIES. First-Order Asymptotics. Second-Order Asymptotics. MULTIPARAMETER CURVED EXPONENTIAL FAMILIES. Extensions of Results from the One-Parameter Case. Exponential Family Regression and Diagnostics. Curvature in Exponential Family Regression. DIFFERENTIAL-GEOMETRIC METHODS. Information-Metric Riemannian Geometry. Statistical Manifolds. Divergence Functions. Recent Developments. Appendices. References. Indexes.

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A General Theory on Stochastic Curtailment for Censored Survival Data

删失生存数据随机提前终止的一般理论

Stochastic curtailment is a valuable tool in monitoring long-term medical studies. Under this approach, one calculates the conditional power, which is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis at the scheduled end of the study given the existing data at the interim analysis, along with certain speculation about the future data. The conditional power may be used to aid the decision to terminate a study prematurely or to extend a study beyond its originally planned…

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Multiple Confidence Sets Based on Stagewise Tests

基于分阶段检验的多重置信集

Recent years have seen suggested constructions of multiple confidence sets related to stagewise multiple tests by some authors. These methods are a type of mixture between test and confidence interval methods, because confidence interval statements are made only for some parameters, whereas test statements for fixed parameter values are made for the other parameters. In this article I define a concept—confidence directional set—giving a confidence bound for one parameter,…

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Exact Confidence Bounds for All Contrasts of Three or More Regression Lines

三条及以上回归直线所有对比的精确置信界

It is desired to compare κ ≥ 3 treatments. Under the assumption of iid normal errors, it is well known that the Scheffé method produces exact simultaneous confidence bounds for all contrasts of the treatment means. Furthermore, it is known that the Scheffé method is conservative when one desires confidence bounds for a specific subset of contrasts of means. Exact methods, such as those due to Tukey and Dunnett, yield tighter bounds than the Scheffé method for specific…

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A Fast Procedure for Outlier Diagnostics in Large Regression Problems

大型回归问题中异常值诊断的快速程序

We propose a procedure for computing a fast approximation to regression estimates based on the minimization of a robust scale. The procedure can be applied with a large number of independent variables where the usual algorithms require an unfeasible or extremely costly computer time. Also, it can be incorporated in any high-breakdown estimation method and may improve it with just little additional computer time. The procedure minimizes the robust scale over a set of…

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Evaluation and Comparison of EEG Traces: Latent Structure in Nonstationary Time Series

脑电轨迹的评估与比较:非平稳时间序列中的潜在结构

We explore and illustrate the use of time series decomposition methods for evaluating and comparing latent structure in nonstationary electroencephalographic (EEG) traces obtained from depressed patients during brain seizures induced as part of electroconvulsive therapy (ECT). Analysis of the patterns of change over time in the frequency structure of such EEG data provides insight into the neurophysiological mechanisms of action of this effective but poorly understood…

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Asymptotic Theory of Nonlinear Regression

非线性回归的渐近理论

Introduction. 1. Consistency. 2. Approximation by a Normal Distribution. 3. Asymptotic Expansions Related to the Least Squares Estimator. 4. Geometric Properties of Asymptotic Expansions. Appendix: I: Subsidiary Facts. II: List of Principal Notations. Commentary. Bibliography. Index.

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Statistical Methods for Speech Recognition

语音识别的统计方法

The speech recognition problem hidden Markov models the acoustic model basic language modelling the Viterbi search hypothesis search on a tree and the fast match elements of information theory the complexity of tasks - the quality of language models the expectation - maximization algorithm and its consequences decision trees and tree language models phonetics from orthography - spelling-to-base from mappings triphones and allophones maximum entropy probability estimation and…

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