论文检索

信息大需求定律AI 解读

An unresolved problem in Bayesian decision theory is how to value and price information. This paper resolves both problems assuming inexpensive information. Building on Large Deviation Theory, we produce a generically complete asymptotic order on samples of i.i.d. signals in finite-state, finite-action models. Computing the marginal value of an additional signal, we find it is eventually exponentially falling in quantity, and higher for lower quality signals. We provide a…

博弈中人类学习的两种竞争模型AI 解读

Reinforcement learning and stochastic fictitious play are apparent rivals as models of humans learning. They embody quite different assumptions about the processing of information and optimisation. This paper compares their properties and finds that they are far more similar than were thought. In particular, the expected motion of stochastic fictitious play and reinforcement learning with experimentation can both be written as a perturbed form of the evolutionary replicator…

Self–selected migration presents one potential explanation for why observed returns to a college education in local labor markets vary widely even though U.S. workers are highly mobile. To assess the impact of self–selection on estimated returns, this paper first develops a Roy model of mobility and earnings where workers choose in which of the 50 states (plus the District of Columbia) to live and work. Available estimation methods are either infeasible for a selection model…

Reinforcement learning and stochastic fictitious play are apparent rivals as models of human learning. They embody quite different assumptions about the processing of information and optimization. This paper compares their properties and finds that they are far more similar than were thought. In particular, the expected motion of stochastic fictitious play and reinforcement learning with experimentation can both be written as a perturbed form of the evolutionary replicator…

This paper presents new identification results for models of first–price, second–price, ascending (English), and descending (Dutch) auctions. We consider a general specification of the latent demand and information structure, nesting both private values and common values models, and allowing correlated types as well as ex ante asymmetry. We address identification of a series of nested models and derive testable restrictions enabling discrimination between models on the basis…

Choice models with nonlinear budget sets provide a precise way of accounting for the nonlinear tax structures present in many applications. In this paper we propose a nonparametric approach to estimation of these models. The basic idea is to think of the choice, in our case hours of labor supply, as being a function of the entire budget set. Then we can do nonparametric regression where the variable in the regression is the budget set. We reduce the dimensionality of this…

平滑样条方差分析中的推断AI 解读

Summary Smoothing spline analysis of variance decomposes a multivariate function into additive components. This decomposition not only provides an efficient way to model a multivariate function but also leads to meaningful inference by testing whether a certain component equals 0. No formal procedure is yet available to test such a hypothesis. We propose an asymptotic method based on the likelihood ratio to test whether a functional component is 0. This test allows us to…

受噪声污染样本中密度导数平方积分的估计AI 解读

Summary We propose a kernel estimator of integrated squared density derivatives, from a sample that has been contaminated by random noise. We derive asymptotic expressions for the bias and the variance of the estimator and show that the squared bias term dominates the variance term. This coincides with results that are available for non-contaminated observations. We then discuss the selection of the bandwidth parameter when estimating integrated squared density derivatives…

微观数据的一种披露风险度量AI 解读

Summary Protection against disclosure is important for statistical agencies releasing microdata files from sample surveys. Simple measures of disclosure risk can provide useful evidence to support decisions about release. We propose a new measure of disclosure risk: the probability that a unique match between a microdata record and a population unit is correct. We argue that this measure has at least two advantages. First, we suggest that it may be a more realistic measure…

利用空间子抽样进行最小二乘变差函数拟合AI 解读

Summary Least squares methods are popular for fitting valid variogram models to spatial data. The paper proposes a new least squares method based on spatial subsampling for variogram model fitting. We show that the method proposed is statistically efficient among a class of least squares methods, including the generalized least squares method. Further, it is computationally much simpler than the generalized least squares method. The method produces valid variogram estimators…

局部线性回归平滑器的带宽选择AI 解读

Summary The paper presents a general strategy for selecting the bandwidth of nonparametric regression estimators and specializes it to local linear regression smoothers. The procedure requires the sample to be divided into a training sample and a testing sample. Using the training sample we first compute a family of regression smoothers indexed by their bandwidths. Next we select the bandwidth by minimizing the empirical quadratic prediction error on the testing sample. The…

基于动物线粒体基因组排列的贝叶斯系统发育推断AI 解读

Summary The determination of evolutionary relationships is a fundamental problem in evolutionary biology. Genome arrangement data are potentially more informative than deoxyribonucleic acid sequence data for inferring evolutionary relationships between distantly related taxa. We describe a Bayesian framework for phylogenetic inference from mitochondrial genome arrangement data using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We apply the method to assess evolutionary relationships…

实验杂交中数量性状基因座识别的模型选择方法AI 解读

Summary We consider the problem of identifying the genetic loci (called quantitative trait loci (QTLs)) contributing to variation in a quantitative trait, with data on an experimental cross. A large number of different statistical approaches to this problem have been described; most make use of multiple tests of hypotheses, and many consider models allowing only a single QTL. We feel that the problem is best viewed as one of model selection. We discuss the use of model…

通过混合模型刻画空间相关数据：贝叶斯方法AI 解读

Summary The paper develops mixture models for spatially indexed data. We confine attention to the case of finite, typically irregular, patterns of points or regions with prescribed spatial relationships, and to problems where it is only the weights in the mixture that vary from one location to another. Our specific focus is on Poisson-distributed data, and applications in disease mapping. We work in a Bayesian framework, with the Poisson parameters drawn from gamma priors,…

局部重组率估计的近似似然方法AI 解读

Summary There is currently great interest in understanding the way in which recombination rates vary, over short scales, across the human genome. Aside from inherent interest, an understanding of this local variation is essential for the sensible design and analysis of many studies aimed at elucidating the genetic basis of common diseases or of human population histories. Standard pedigree-based approaches do not have the fine scale resolution that is needed to address this…

局部似然密度估计AI 解读

This paper considers a class of local likelihood methods introduced by Eguchi and Copas. Unified asymptotic results are presented in the usual smoothing context of the bandwidth, h, tending to zero as the sample size tends to infinity. We present our results pointwise in the univariate case, but then go on to extend them to global properties and to indicate how to cope with the multivariate case. Specific members of the class due to Copas, and Hjort and Jones are seen to be…

端点与边界估计的平移偏差校正新方法AI 解读

We suggest two new, translation-based methods for estimating and correcting for bias when estimating the edge of a distribution. The first uses an empirical translation applied to the argument of the kernel, in order to remove the main effects of the asymmetries that are inherent when constructing estimators at boundaries. Placing the translation inside the kernel is in marked contrast to traditional approaches, such as the use of high-order kernels, which are related to the…

线性过程的核密度估计AI 解读

In this paper we provide a detailed characterization of the asymptotic behavior of kernel density estimators for one-sided linear processes. The conjecture that asymptotic normality for the kernel density estimator holds under short-range dependence is proved under minimal assumptions on bandwidths. We also depict the dichotomous and trichotomous phenomena for various choices of bandwidths when the process is long-range dependent.

单观测无偏先验AI 解读

This paper studies a class of default priors, which we call single observation unbiased priors (SOUP). A prior for a parameter is a SOUP if the corresponding posterior mean of the parameter based on a single observation is an unbiased estimator of the parameter. We prove that, under mild regularity conditions, a default prior for a convolution parameter is "noninformative" in the sense of yielding a posterior inference invariant under amalgamation only if it is a SOUP.…

半空间后验概率的小相对误差渐近正态近似AI 解读

Let $\Theta$ be a parameter space included in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space and let $A$ be a half-space. Suppose that the maximum likelihood estimate $\theta_n$ of $\theta$ is not in $A$ (otherwise, replace $A$ by its complement) and let $\Delta$ be the maximum log likelihood (at $\theta_n$) minus the maximum log likelihood over the boundary $\partial A$. It is shown that under some conditions, uniformly over all half-spaces $A$, either the posterior probability of $A$…

什么是统计模型？AI 解读

This paper addresses two closely related questions, "What is a statistical model?" and "What is a parameter?" The notions that a model must "make sense," and that a parameter must "have a well-defined meaning" are deeply ingrained in applied statistical work, reasonably well understood at an instinctive level, but absent from most formal theories of modelling and inference. In this paper, these concepts are defined in algebraic terms, using morphisms, functors and natural…

摘要暂缺

摘要暂缺

摘要暂缺