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离散观测数据的函数主成分分析理论AI 解读

Functional data analysis is an important research field in statistics which treats data as random functions drawn from some infinite-dimensional functional space, and functional principal component analysis (FPCA) based on eigen-decomposition plays a central role for data reduction and representation. After nearly three decades of research, there remains a key problem unsolved, namely, the perturbation analysis of covariance operator for diverging number of eigencomponents…

Plackett–Luce 模型中似然估计量的统一分析AI 解读

The Plackett–Luce model has been extensively used for rank aggregation in social choice theory. A central statistical question in this model concerns estimating the utility vector that governs the model’s likelihood. In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic theory of utility vector estimation by maximizing different types of likelihood, such as full, marginal, and quasi-likelihood. Starting from interpreting the estimating equations of these estimators to gain some…

高维广义线性模型的贝叶斯模型选择一致性进展AI 解读

Uncovering genuine relationships between a response variable and a large collection of covariates is a fundamental and practically important problem. In the context of Gaussian linear models, both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian literature is well-developed and there are no substantial differences in the model selection consistency results available from the two schools. For generalized linear models (GLMs), however, Bayesian model selection consistency results are lacking in…

分布式强化学习中的估计与统计推断AI 解读

In this paper, we study distributional reinforcement learning from the perspective of statistical efficiency. We investigate distributional policy evaluation, aiming to estimate the complete return distribution (denoted $η^π$) attained by a given policy $π$. We use the certainty-equivalence method to construct our estimator $\hatη^π$, given a generative model is available. In this circumstance we need a dataset of size $\widetilde O\left(\frac{|\mathcal{S}||\mathcal{A}|}{\varepsilon^{2p}(1-γ)^{2p+2}}\right)$…

矩阵情境在线决策中的统计推断AI 解读

The study of online decision-making problems that leverage contextual information has drawn notable attention due to their significant applications in fields ranging from healthcare to autonomous systems. In modern applications, contextual information can be rich and is often represented as a matrix. Moreover, while existing online decision algorithms mainly focus on reward maximization, less attention has been devoted to statistical inference. To address these gaps, in this…

连锁不平衡评分回归及跨祖源扩展的高维统计推断AI 解读

Linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSC) has emerged as an essential tool for genetic and genomic analyses of complex traits, utilizing high-dimensional data derived from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). LDSC computes the linkage disequilibrium (LD) scores using an external reference panel, and integrates the LD scores with only summary data from the original GWAS. In this paper, we investigate LDSC within a fixed-effect data integration framework, underscoring…

深层马蹄高斯过程AI 解读

Deep Gaussian processes have recently been proposed as natural objects to fit, similarly to deep neural networks, possibly complex features present in modern data samples, such as compositional structures. Adopting a Bayesian nonparametric approach, it is natural to use deep Gaussian processes as prior distributions, and use the corresponding posterior distributions for statistical inference. We introduce the deep Horseshoe Gaussian process Deep–HGP, a new simple prior based…

协变量依赖转移概率的隐马尔可夫状态下，混合模型的稳健性AI 解读

This article studies the robustness of quasi-maximum-likelihood estimation in hidden Markov models when the regime-switching structure is misspecified. Specifically, we examine the case where the data-generating process features a hidden Markov regime sequence with covariate-dependent transition probabilities, but estimation proceeds under a simplified mixture model that assumes regimes are independent and identically distributed. We show that the parameters governing the…

空间自回归模型中的异方差稳健设定检验AI 解读

Spatial autoregressive (SAR) and related models offer flexible yet parsimonious ways to model spatial and network interactions. SAR specifications typically rely on a particular parametric functional form and an exogenous choice of the so-called spatial weight matrix with only limited guidance from theory in making these specifications. Also, the choice of a SAR model over other alternatives, such as spatial Durbin (SD) or spatial lagged X (SLX) models, is often arbitrary,…

有限重叠的检验AI 解读

Extreme propensity scores arise in observational studies when treated and control units have very different characteristics. This is commonly referred to as limited overlap . In this paper, we propose a formal statistical test that helps assess the degree of limited overlap. Rejecting the null hypothesis in our test indicates either no or very mild degree of limited overlap and hence reassures that standard treatment effect estimators will be well behaved. One distinguishing…

空间相关数据模型的Moran’s I lasso估计AI 解读

Summary This paper proposes a lasso-based estimator which uses information embedded in the Moran statistic to develop a selection procedure called Moran’s I lasso (Mi-lasso) to solve the eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) eigenvector selection problem. ESF uses a subset of eigenvectors from a spatial weights matrix to efficiently account for any omitted spatially correlated terms in a classical linear regression framework, thus eliminating the need for the researcher to…

对序列依赖稳健的横截面相关自助法检验AI 解读

Summary We propose a novel bootstrap-based test for cross-sectional dependence (CD) in panel models, maintaining robustness against serial dependence. While serial dependence is common in panel data, existing tests often assume serial independence. Our cluster wild bootstrap CD test procedure mirrors Pesaran’s original CD test and is very simple to implement. This procedure preserves serial dependence while testing for cross-sectional independence. Theoretical validity is…

半参数模型中的交叉拟合经验似然AI 解读

Summary We propose a new cross-fitted empirical likelihood (CFEL) inference procedure for low-dimensional parameters in the presence of complex, infinite dimensional nuisance parameters that may be estimated by modern machine-learning methods. Relying on the Neyman orthogonal moment condition and cross-fitting as a sample-splitting procedure, we show that our CFEL statistic is asymptotically pivotal under weak conditions often invoked in Wald-type approaches. Three examples…

说服研究中的二元工具变量模型：刻画依从者的说服类型AI 解读

Summary In an empirical study of persuasion, researchers often use a binary instrument to encourage individuals to consume information and take some action. We show that, with a binary Imbens–Angrist instrumental variable model and the monotone treatment response assumption, it is possible to identify the joint distribution of potential outcomes among compliers. This is necessary to identify the percentage of mobilized voters and their statistical characteristic defined by…

使Lee界更稳健且更紧：随机单调性与对称性下的样本选择模型AI 解读

Summary In the presence of sample selection, Lee’s (2009, Review of Economic Studies 76, 1071–102) non-parametric bounds are a popular tool for estimating a treatment effect. However, the Lee bounds rely on the monotonicity assumption, the empirical validity of which is sometimes unclear. Furthermore, the bounds are often regarded to be wide and less informative even under monotonicity. To address these issues, this study introduces a stochastic version of the monotonicity…

聚焦对象的置信保障：具有选择条件覆盖率的保形预测AI 解读

Abstract Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific test unit(s) of interest, requiring uncertainty quantification tailored to these focal units. In such cases, marginally valid conformal prediction intervals may fail to provide valid coverage for the focal unit(s) due to selection…

海量数据线性分类的多分辨率子抽样AI 解读

Abstract Subsampling is one of the popular methods to balance statistical efficiency and computational efficiency in the big data era. Most approaches aim to select informative or representative sample points to achieve good overall information of the full data. The present work takes the view that sampling techniques are recommended for the region we focus on and summary measures are enough to collect the information for the rest according to a well-designed data…

凸性与统计关联度量AI 解读

Abstract Recent investigations on the measures of statistical association highlight essential properties such as zero-independence (the measure is zero if and only if the random variables are independent), monotonicity under information refinement, and max-functionality (the measure of association is maximal if and only if we are in the presence of a deterministic (noiseless) dependence). An open question concerns the reasons why measures of statistical associations satisfy…

通过下注构造序贯蒙特卡洛检验AI 解读

Abstract In a Monte Carlo test, the observed dataset is fixed, and several resampled or permuted versions of the dataset are generated in order to test a null hypothesis that the original dataset is exchangeable with the resampled/permuted ones. Sequential Monte Carlo tests aim to save computational resources by generating these additional datasets sequentially one by one and potentially stopping early. While earlier tests yield valid inference at a particular prespecified…

模块化贝叶斯推断中切断反馈的一般框架AI 解读

Abstract Standard Bayesian inference enables building models that combine information from various sources, but this inference may not be reliable if components of the model are misspecified. Cut inference, a particular type of modularized Bayesian inference, is an alternative that splits a model into modules and cuts the feedback from any suspect module. Previous studies have focused on a two module case, but a more general definition of a ‘module’ remains unclear. We…

高维广义线性模型部分惩罚检验的强 Oracle 保证AI 解读

Abstract Partial penalized tests provide flexible approaches to testing linear hypotheses in high-dimensional generalized linear models. However, because the estimators used in these tests are local minimizers of potentially nonconvex folded-concave penalized objectives, the solutions one computes in practice may not coincide with the unknown local minima for which we have nice theoretical guarantees. To close this gap between theory and computation, we introduce local…

贝叶斯惩罚经验似然与马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛抽样AI 解读

Abstract In this study, we introduce a novel methodological framework called Bayesian penalized empirical likelihood (BPEL), designed to address the computational challenges inherent in empirical likelihood (EL) approaches. Our approach has two primary objectives: (i) to enhance the inherent flexibility of EL in accommodating diverse model conditions, and (ii) to facilitate the use of well-established Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling schemes as a convenient alternative to…

具有条件覆盖保证的共形预测AI 解读

Abstract We consider the problem of constructing distribution-free prediction sets with finite-sample conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to provide exact conditional coverage universally in finite samples. Thus, most popular methods only guarantee marginal coverage over the covariates or are restricted to a limited set of conditional targets, e.g. coverage over a finite set of prespecified subgroups. This paper bridges this gap by defining a…

提高观察性区组设计敏感度的条件化策略AI 解读

Abstract In an observational block design, there are I blocks of J individuals, typically with one treated individual and J−1 controls; however, unlike a randomized block design, individuals were not randomly assigned to treatment or control. To be convincing, an observational block design must demonstrate that an ostensible treatment effect is not actually a consequence of small or moderate unmeasured biases of treatment assignment in the absence of a treatment effect. It…