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多类别 ψ 学习AI 解读

In binary classification, margin-based techniques usually deliver high performance. As a result, a multicategory problem is often treated as a sequence of binary classifications. In the absence of a dominating class, this treatment may be suboptimal and may yield poor performance, such as for support vector machines (SVMs). We propose a novel multicategory generalization of ψ-learning that treats all classes simultaneously. The new generalization eliminates this potential…

线性与非线性时间序列模型的拟合优度检验AI 解读

In this article we study a general class of goodness-of-fit tests for a parametric conditional mean of a linear or nonlinear time series model. Among the properties of the proposed tests are that they are suitable when the conditioning set is infinite-dimensional; that they are consistent against a broad class of alternatives, including Pitman's local alternatives converging at the parametric rate n−1/2, with n the sample size; and that they do not need to choose a lag order…

参照样本集合对频率学推断的影响AI 解读

We employ second-order likelihood asymptotics to investigate how ideal frequentist inferences depend on the probability model for the data through more than the likelihood function, referring to this as the effect of the reference set. There are two aspects of higherorder corrections to first-order likelihood methods, namely (i) that involving effects of fitting nuisance parameters and leading to the modified profile likelihood, and (ii) another part pertaining to limitation…

病例增补样本下的二元回归模型拟合AI 解读

In a case-augmented study, measurements on a random sample from a population are augmented by information from an independent sample of cases, that is units with some characteristic of interest. We show that inferences about the effect of the covariates on the probability of being a case can be made by fitting a modified prospective likelihood. We also show that this procedure is fully efficient.

随机删失下风险率函数的置信带AI 解读

We suggest a completely empirical approach to the construction of confidence bands for hazard functions, based on smoothing the Nelsen-Aalen estimator. In particular, we introduce a local bandwidth-choice method. Our approach uses empirical information about both the survival rate and the censoring rate, and employs undersmoothing to alleviate difficulties caused by bias. We use both Edgeworth expansion and numerical simulation, the former to develop a basic formula and the…

删失下连续事件生活质量调整间隔时间分布的估计AI 解读

When treatment effects are studied in the context of successive or recurrent life events, separate analyses of the quality-of-life scores and of the inter-event, gap, times might lead to possibly contradictory conclusions. In an attempt to reconcile this, we propose a unitary and more comprehensive nonparametric analysis that combines the two separate analyses by introducing the quality-of-life-adjusted gap time concept. Inverse probability of censoring estimators of the…

现状及区间删失数据的加速失效时间模型AI 解读

This paper introduces a novel approach to making inference about the regression parameters in the accelerated failure time model for current status and interval censored data. The estimator is constructed by inverting a Wald-type test for testing a null proportional hazards model. A numerically efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo based resampling method is proposed for obtaining simultaneously the point estimator and a consistent estimator of its variance-covariance matrix.…

用于小区域估计的 M 分位数模型AI 解读

Small area estimation techniques typically rely on regression models that use both covariates and random effects to explain variation between the areas. However, such models also depend on strong distributional assumptions, require a formal specification of the random part of the model and do not easily allow for outlier-robust inference. We describe a new approach to small area estimation that is based on modelling quantilelike parameters of the conditional distribution of…

重复测量分析中的秩回归AI 解读

We consider rank-based regression models for repeated measures. To account for possible withinsubject correlations, we decompose the total ranks into between- and within-subject ranks and obtain two different estimators based on between- and within-subject ranks. A simple perturbation method is then introduced to generate bootstrap replicates of the estimating functions and the parameter estimates. This provides a convenient way for combining the corresponding two types of…

多元时间序列图模型的检验统计量AI 解读

A graphical model for multivariate time series is a concept extended by Dahlhaus (2000) from that for a random vector to a multivariate time series. We propose a test statistic for identifying the model based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence between two graphical models. The null distribution is shown to be asymptotically normal with mean and variance which depend just on the dimensions of the graphs.

区间删失数据的多样本检验AI 解读

The problem of testing for the equality of k distribution functions under Case 2 interval censoring is studied and a supremum-type test statistic is proposed based on the differences between the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator and the so-called leveraged bootstrap estimator of the k underlying distributions. The proposed test is distributionfree and consistent against all alternatives. As the main results hold for a wide range of resampling sizes, a data-driven…

删失数据下的线性预期剩余寿命回归AI 解读

In the statistical literature, life expectancy is usually characterised by the mean residual life function. Regression models are thus needed to study the association between the mean residual life functions and their covariates. In this paper, we consider a linear mean residual life model and develop inference procedures in the presence of potential censoring. The new model and inference procedures are applied to the Stanford heart transplant data. Semiparametric efficiency…

基于层级模型的贝叶斯配准及其蛋白质生物信息学应用AI 解读

An important problem in shape analysis is to match configurations of points in space after filtering out some geometrical transformation. In this paper we introduce hierarchical models for such tasks, in which the points in the configurations are either unlabelled or have at most a partial labelling constraining the matching, and in which some points may only appear in one of the configurations. We derive procedures for simultaneous inference about the matching and the…

部分线性单指标模型的经验似然置信区域AI 解读

Summary Empirical-likelihood-based inference for the parameters in a partially linear single-index model is investigated. Unlike existing empirical likelihood procedures for other simpler models, if there is no bias correction the limit distribution of the empirical likelihood ratio cannot be asymptotically tractable. To attack this difficulty we propose a bias correction to achieve the standard χ2-limit. The bias-corrected empirical likelihood ratio shares some of the…

离散观测扩散过程的精确且计算高效的似然估计（含讨论）AI 解读

Summary The objective of the paper is to present a novel methodology for likelihood-based inference for discretely observed diffusions. We propose Monte Carlo methods, which build on recent advances on the exact simulation of diffusions, for performing maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation.

序贯蒙特卡洛采样器AI 解读

Summary We propose a methodology to sample sequentially from a sequence of probability distributions that are defined on a common space, each distribution being known up to a normalizing constant. These probability distributions are approximated by a cloud of weighted random samples which are propagated over time by using sequential Monte Carlo methods. This methodology allows us to derive simple algorithms to make parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms interact to…

离散数据的改进似然推断AI 解读

Summary Discrete data, particularly count and contingency table data, are typically analysed by using methods that are accurate to first order, such as normal approximations for maximum likelihood estimators. By contrast continuous data can quite generally be analysed by using third-order procedures, with major improvements in accuracy and with intrinsic separation of information concerning parameter components. The paper extends these higher order results to discrete data,…

纵向数据中次序约束假设的检验AI 解读

Summary In many biomedical studies, we are interested in comparing treatment effects with an inherent ordering. We propose a quadratic score test (QST) based on a quadratic inference function for detecting an order in treatment effects for correlated data. The quadratic inference function is similar to the negative of a log-likelihood, and it provides test statistics in the spirit of a χ2-test for testing nested hypotheses as well as for assessing the goodness of fit of…

针对高维备择假设的检验AI 解读

Summary As the dimensionality of the alternative hypothesis increases, the power of classical tests tends to diminish quite rapidly. This is especially true for high dimensional data in which there are more parameters than observations. We discuss a score test on a hyperparameter in an empirical Bayesian model as an alternative to classical tests. It gives a general test statistic which can be used to test a point null hypothesis against a high dimensional alternative, even…

混合效应模型同质性的广义得分检验AI 解读

Many important problems in psychology and biomedical studies require testing for overdispersion, correlation and heterogeneity in mixed effects and latent variable models, and score tests are particularly useful for this purpose. But the existing testing procedures depend on restrictive assumptions. In this paper we propose a class of test statistics based on a general mixed effects model to test the homogeneity hypothesis that all of the variance components are zero. Under…

经验主成分函数极值的评估AI 解读

The difficulties of estimating and representing the distributions of functional data mean that principal component methods play a substantially greater role in functional data analysis than in more conventional finite-dimensional settings. Local maxima and minima in principal component functions are of direct importance; they indicate places in the domain of a random function where influence on the function value tends to be relatively strong but of opposite sign. We explore…

半参数空间回归中的估计AI 解读

Nonparametric methods have been very popular in the last couple of decades in time series and regression, but no such development has taken place for spatial models. A rather obvious reason for this is the curse of dimensionality. For spatial data on a grid evaluating the conditional mean given its closest neighbors requires a four-dimensional nonparametric regression. In this paper a semiparametric spatial regression approach is proposed to avoid this problem. An estimation…

贝叶斯样本量的闭式表达AI 解读

Sample size criteria are often expressed in terms of the concentration of the posterior density, as controlled by some sort of error bound. Since this is done pre-experimentally, one can regard the posterior density as a function of the data. Thus, when a sample size criterion is formalized in terms of a functional of the posterior, its value is a random variable. Generally, such functionals have means under the true distribution. We give asymptotic expressions for the…

We introduce a natural conjugate prior for the transition matrix of a reversible Markov chain. This allows estimation and testing. The prior arises from random walk with reinforcement in the same way the Dirichlet prior arises from Pólya’s urn. We give closed form normalizing constants, a simple method of simulation from the posterior and a characterization along the lines of W. E. Johnson’s characterization of the Dirichlet prior.