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随机场中的稀疏信号检测及其脑图谱应用AI 解读

Brain mapping data have been modeled as Gaussian random fields, and local increases in mean are detected by local maxima of a random field of test statistics derived from these data. Accurate p values for local maxima are readily available for isotropic data based on the expected Euler characteristic of the excursion set of the test statistic random field. In this article we give a simple method for dealing with nonisotropic data. Our approach has connections to the model of…

具有过度识别约束的工具变量回归敏感性分析AI 解读

Instrumental variables regression (IV regression) is a method for making causal inferences about the effect of a treatment based on an observational study in which there are unmeasured confounding variables. The method requires one or more valid instrumental variables (IVs); a valid IV is a variable that is associated with the treatment, is independent of unmeasured confounding variables, and has no direct effect on the outcome. Often there is uncertainty about the validity…

函数型主成分回归与函数型偏最小二乘AI 解读

Regression of a scalar response on signal predictors, such as near-infrared (NIR) spectra of chemical samples, presents a major challenge when, as is typically the case, the dimension of the signals far exceeds their number. Most solutions to this problem reduce the dimension of the predictors either by regressing on components [e.g., principal component regression (PCR) and partial least squares (PLS)] or by smoothing methods, which restrict the coefficient function to the…

广义线性模型类推断的稳健建模AI 解读

Generalized linear models (GLMs) are widely used for data analysis; however, their maximum likelihood estimators can be sensitive to outliers. We propose new statistical models that allow robust inferences from the GLM class of models, including Poisson and binomial GLMs, and their extension to generalized linear mixed models. The likelihood score equations from the new models give estimators with bounded influence, so that the resulting estimators are robust against…

多元时间序列间不相关性的最优检验AI 解读

The problem of testing noncorrelation between two multivariate time series is considered. Assuming that the global process admits a joint vector autoregressive (VAR) representation, noncorrelation between the two component series is equivalent to the hypothesis that all off-diagonal blocks in the matrix coefficients and the innovation covariance of the joint VAR representation are zero. We establish an adequate local asymptotic normality (LAN) property for this VAR model in…

利用 MCMC 实现基于估计函数的推断AI 解读

Under a semiparametric or nonparametric setting, inferences about the unknown parameter are often made based on a nonsmooth estimating function. Resampling methods are quite handy for obtaining good approximations to the distribution of the consistent estimator when the estimating equation and its resampled counterparts are not difficult to solve numerically. In this article we propose a simple, flexible procedure that provides such approximations through the standard Markov…

控制错误发现率的理想与自适应复合决策规则AI 解读

We develop a compound decision theory framework for multiple-testing problems and derive an oracle rule based on the z values that minimizes the false nondiscovery rate (FNR) subject to a constraint on the false discovery rate (FDR). We show that many commonly used multiple-testing procedures, which are p value–based, are inefficient, and propose an adaptive procedure based on the z values. The z value–based adaptive procedure asymptotically attains the performance of the z…

用于降维的方向回归AI 解读

We introduce directional regression (DR) as a method for dimension reduction. Like contour regression, DR is derived from empirical directions, but achieves higher accuracy and requires substantially less computation. DR naturally synthesizes the dimension reduction estimators based on conditional moments, such as sliced inverse regression and sliced average variance estimation, and in doing so combines the advantages of these methods. Under mild conditions, it provides…

通过最小二乘近似统一 LASSO 估计AI 解读

We propose a method of least squares approximation (LSA) for unified yet simple LASSO estimation. Our general theoretical framework includes ordinary least squares, generalized linear models, quantile regression, and many others as special cases. Specifically, LSA can transfer many different types of LASSO objective functions into their asymptotically equivalent least squares problems. Thereafter, the standard asymptotic theory can be established and the LARS algorithm can…

最优地统计模型选择AI 解读

In many fields of science, predicting variables of interest over a study region based on noisy data observed at some locations is an important problem. Two popular methods for the problem are kriging and smoothing splines. The former assumes that the underlying process is stochastic, whereas the latter assumes it is purely deterministic. Kriging performs better than smoothing splines in some situations, but is outperformed by smoothing splines in others. However, little is…

基于小波的贝叶斯曲线分类AI 解读

We propose classification models for binary and multicategory data where the predictor is a random function. We use Bayesian modeling with wavelet basis functions that have nice approximation properties over a large class of functional spaces and can accommodate a wide variety of functional forms observed in real life applications. We develop an unified hierarchical model to encompass both the adaptive wavelet-based function estimation model and the logistic classification…

自回归模型中的一致有效推断AI 解读

The purpose of this paper is to provide theoretical justification for some existing methods for constructing confidence intervals for the sum of coefficients in autoregressive models. We show that the methods of Stock (1991), Andrews (1993), and Hansen (1999) provide asymptotically valid confidence intervals, whereas the subsampling method of Romano and Wolf (2001) does not. In addition, we generalize the three valid methods to a larger class of statistics. We also clarify…

不完全竞争动态模型的估计AI 解读

We describe a two-step algorithm for estimating dynamic games under the assumption that behavior is consistent with Markov perfect equilibrium. In the first step, the policy functions and the law of motion for the state variables are estimated. In the second step, the remaining structural parameters are estimated using the optimality conditions for equilibrium. The second step estimator is a simple simulated minimum distance estimator. The algorithm applies to a broad class…

计量经济模型中参数集合的估计与置信区域AI 解读

This paper develops a framework for performing estimation and inference in econometric models with partial identification, focusing particularly on models characterized by moment inequalities and equalities. Applications of this framework include the analysis of game-theoretic models, revealed preference restrictions, regressions with missing and corrupted data, auction models, structural quantile regressions, and asset pricing models. Copyright The Econometric Society 2007.

加州电力备用容量市场的效率AI 解读

Abstract We test the efficiency of the California electricity reserves market by examining systematic differences between its day‐ and hour‐ahead prices. We uncover significant day‐ahead premia, which we attribute to market design characteristics. On the demand side, the market design established a principal–agent relationship between the markets' buyers (principal) and their supervisory authority (agent). The agent had very limited incentives to shift reserve purchases to…

单位区间上的核型密度估计AI 解读

We consider kernel-type methods for the estimation of a density on 0,1 which eschew explicit boundary correction. We propose using kernels that are symmetric in their two arguments; these kernels are conditional densities of bivariate copulas. We give asymptotic theory for the version of the new estimator using Gaussian copula kernels and report on simulation comparisons of it with the beta-kernel density estimator of Chen ([1]). We also provide automatic bandwidth selection…

基于估计抽样分布的重要性抽样AI 解读

Monte Carlo importance sampling for evaluating numerical integration is discussed. We consider a parametric family of sampling distributions and propose the use of the sampling distribution estimated by maximum likelihood. The proposed method of importance sampling using the estimated sampling distribution is shown to improve the asymptotic variance of the ordinary method using the true sampling distribution. The argument is closely related to the discussion of the paradox…

广义空间狄利克雷过程模型AI 解读

In many applications, spatial data are assumed to be point referenced, e.g., ob-served at geo-coded locations. Modelling for this kind of data usually introduces spatial structure in the form of spatial random effects where a term capturing residual spatial association is explicitly introduced. This pure spatial effect is customarily modelled as a mean-zero stationary Gaussian process (GP). The SDP introduced by Gelfand et al. (2005) produces a random spatial process which…

纵向数据的经验似然半参数回归分析AI 解读

A semiparametric regression model for longitudinal data is considered. The empirical likelihood method is used to estimate the regression coefficients and the baseline function, and to construct confidence regions and intervals. It is proved that the maximum empirical likelihood estimator of the regression coefficients achieves asymptotic efficiency and the estimator of the baseline function attains asymptotic normality when a bias correction is made. Two calibrated…

利用层级似然处理缺失数据问题AI 解读

Most statistical solutions to the problem of statistical inference with missing data involve integration or expectation. This can be done in many ways: directly or indirectly, analytically or numerically, deterministically or stochastically. Missing-data problems can be formulated in terms of latent random variables, so that hierarchical likelihood methods of Lee & Nelder (1996) can be applied to missing-value problems to provide one solution to the problem of integration of…

基于种群的可逆跳跃马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛AI 解读

In this paper we present an extension of population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to the trans-dimensional case. One of the main challenges in MCMC-based inference is that of simulating from high and trans-dimensional target measures. In such cases, MCMC methods may not adequately traverse the support of the target; the simulation results will be unreliable. We develop population methods to deal with such problems, and give a result proving the uniform ergodicity of…

利用 Gibbs 抽样获得条件检验及其应用AI 解读

A random sample is drawn from a distribution which admits a minimal sufficient statistic for the parameters. The Gibbs sampler is proposed to generate samples, called conditionally sufficient or co-sufficient samples, from the conditional distribution of the sample given its value of the sufficient statistic. The procedure is illustrated for the gamma distribution. Co-sufficient samples may be used to give exact tests of fit; for the gamma distribution these are compared for…