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幂变换与门限 GARCH 模型的估计和检验AI 解读

Consider a class of power transformed and threshold GARCH(p,q) (PTTGRACH(p,q)) model, which is a natural generalization of power-transformed and threshold GARCH(1,1) model in Hwang and Basawa (2004) and includes the standard GARCH model and many other models as special cases. We first establish the asymptotic normality for quasi-maximum likelihood estimators (QMLE) of the parameters under the condition that the error distribution has finite fourth moment. For the case of…

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从非局部视角分析 CUSUM 及平方 CUSUM 结构变化检验的功效AI 解读

We consider the power properties of the CUSUM and CUSUM of squares tests in the presence of a one-time change in the parameters of a linear regression model. A result due to Ploberger and Krämer (1990) is that the CUSUM of squares test has only trivial asymptotic local power in this case, while the CUSUM test has non-trivial local asymptotic power unless the change is orthogonal to the mean regressor. The main theme of the paper is that such conclusions obtained from a local…

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非线性、非平稳性与伪预测AI 解读

Implications of nonlinearity, nonstationarity and misspeci...cation are considered from a forecasting perspective. My model allows for small departures from the martingale di¤erence sequence hypothesis by including a nonlinear component, formulated as a general, integrable transformation of the I(1) predictor. I assume that the true generating mechanism is unknown to the econometrician and he is therefore forced to use some approximating functions. I show that the linear…

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大规模面板中的斜率同质性检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a modified version of Swamy’s test of slope homogeneity for panel data models where the cross section dimension (N) could be large relative to the time series dimension (T). We exploit the cross section dispersion of individual slopes weighted by their relative precision. Using Monte Carlo experiments, we show that the test has the correct size and satisfactory power in panels with strictly exogenous regressors for various combinations of N and T. For…

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异方差与自相关稳健检验中的最优带宽选择AI 解读

In time series regressions with nonparametrically autocorrelated errors, it is now standard empirical practice to use kernel-based robust standard errors that involve some smoothing function over the sample autocorrelations. The underlying smoothing parameter b, which can be defined as the ratio of the bandwidth (or truncation lag) to the sample size, is a tuning parameter that plays a key role in determining the asymptotic properties of the standard errors and associated…

非经典测量误差模型的工具变量处理AI 解读

While the literature on nonclassical measurement error traditionally relies on the availability of an auxiliary data set containing correctly measured observations, we establish that the availability of instruments enables the identification of a large class of nonclassical nonlinear errors-in-variables models with continuously distributed variables. Our main identifying assumption is that, conditional on the value of the true regressors, some “measure of location” of the…

固定效应面板回归的异方差稳健标准误AI 解读

The conventional heteroskedasticity-robust (HR) variance matrix estimator for cross-sectional regression (with or without a degrees-of-freedom adjustment), applied to the fixed-effects estimator for panel data with serially uncorrelated errors, is inconsistent if the number of time periods T is fixed (and greater than 2) as the number of entities n increases. We provide a bias-adjusted HR estimator that is √nT-consistent under any sequences (n T ) in which n and/or T…

多重变点与混合创新模型的高效贝叶斯推断AI 解读

Time series subject to parameter shifts of random magnitude and timing are commonly modeled with a change-point approach using Chib's algorithm to draw the break dates. We outline some advantages of an alternative approach in which breaks come through mixture distributions in state innovations, and for which the sampler of Gerlach, Carter, and Kohn allows reliable and efficient inference. We show how the same sampler can be used to model shifts in variance that occur…

稳健非嵌套检验与货币需求AI 解读

Nonnested hypothesis testing procedures recently have been extended to dynamic nonnested models. We propose robust tests that generalize the J test and the F test for nonnested dynamic models with unknown serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity in errors and regressors. We investigate the finite-sample properties of our test statistics and propose to use bootstrap methods or the fixed-b asymptotics developed by Kiefer and Vogelsang to improve the asymptotic…

混合面板非平稳性的简单检验AI 解读

This article proposes a simple estimator that is consistent for the fraction of a panel that has an autoregressive unit root. Given such an estimate, , we can test the null hypothesis that θ = θ0 for any value of θ0 ϵ (0, 1]. The test is asymptotically standard normal and is valid whether or not the panel is cross-sectionally correlated. The main insight is that in a panel in which some units are stationary and some have unit roots, the cross-sectional variance of the mixed…

识别多重结构变化的潜在陷阱及其在购买力平价中的应用AI 解读

We investigate the empirical performance of the Bai and Perron multiple structural change tests and show that the use of their critical values may cause severe size distortions in persistent series. To correct these size distortions while maintaining a good power, we implement the Bai structural change test and extend it in two directions, developing a new procedure to choose the number of breaks and a restricted version that specifically models breaks that imply mean or…

国际动态风险分担AI 解读

Abstract In this paper we examine the implications of international risk sharing among a set of countries in the presence of market frictions which complicate the instantaneous adjustment to the first‐order conditions. We suggest approximating the consumption streams of countries belonging to the risk sharing coalition in terms of a disequilibrium dynamic model embodying forward‐looking adjustment. Econometric methods for estimating and testing the model are discussed.…

汇率波动率 GARCH 模型中的结构突变AI 解读

Abstract We investigate the empirical relevance of structural breaks for GARCH models of exchange rate volatility using both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample tests. We find significant evidence of structural breaks in the unconditional variance of seven of eight US dollar exchange rate return series over the 1980–2005 period—implying unstable GARCH processes for these exchange rates—and GARCH(1,1) parameter estimates often vary substantially across the subsamples defined by the…

GARCH 类模型标准化残差相关检验的统一方法AI 解读

Abstract In this paper, we propose a unified approach to generating standardized‐residuals‐based correlation tests for checking GARCH‐type models. This approach is valid in the presence of estimation uncertainty, is robust to various standardized error distributions, and is applicable to testing various types of misspecifications. By using this approach, we also propose a class of power‐transformed‐series (PTS) correlation tests that provides certain robustifications and…

异方差与自相关稳健检验的表现：蒙特卡洛研究及 Fama–French 三因子模型应用AI 解读

Abstract This paper illustrates the pitfalls of the conventional heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) Wald test and the advantages of new HAR tests developed by Kiefer and Vogelsang in 2005 and by Phillips, Sun and Jin in 2003 and 2006. The illustrations use the 1993 Fama–French three‐factor model. The null that the intercepts are zero is tested for 5‐year, 10‐year and longer sub‐periods. The conventional HAR test with asymptotic P ‐values rejects the null for…