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惩罚样条估计的同时置信带AI 解读

In this article we construct simultaneous confidence bands for a smooth curve using penalized spline estimators. We consider three types of estimation methods: (a) as a standard (fixed effect) nonparametric model, (b) using the mixed-model framework with the spline coefficients as random effects, and (c) a full Bayesian approach. The volume-of-tube formula is applied for the first two methods and compared with Bayesian simultaneous confidence bands from a frequentist…

三维列联表的似然比检验AI 解读

Likelihood ratio (LR) tests for association and for interaction are examined for three-way contingency tables, particularly the widely used 2 × 2 × K table. Mutual information identities are used to characterize the information decomposition and the logical relationship between the omnibus LR test for conditional independence across K strata and its two independent components, LR tests for interaction and for uniform association. The latter two tests are logically connected…

部分问卷设计与非单调缺失下半参数回归模型的推断AI 解读

In epidemiologic studies, partial questionnaire design (PQD) can reduce cost, time, and other practical burdens associated with lengthy questionnaires by assigning different subsets of the questionnaire to different, but overlapping, subsets of the study participants. In this article, we describe methods for semiparametric inference for regression model under PQD and other study settings that can generate nonmonotone missing data in covariates. In particular, motivated from…

扩散过程的无穷小稳健性AI 解读

We develop infinitesimally robust statistical procedures for the general diffusion processes. We first prove the existence and uniqueness of the times-series influence function of conditionally unbiased M-estimators for ergodic and stationary diffusions, under weak conditions on the (martingale) estimating function used. We then characterize the robustness of M-estimators for diffusions and derive a class of conditionally unbiased optimal robust estimators. To compute these…

不完整多项数据的贝叶斯推断：病原体多样性问题AI 解读

With recent advances in genetic analysis, it has become feasible to classify a pathogen into genetically distinct variants even though they apparently cause an infected subject similar symptoms. The availability of such data opens up the interesting problem of studying the spatiotemporal variation in the diversity of variants of a pathogen. Data on pathogen variants often suffer the problems of (i) low cell counts, (ii) incomplete classification due to laboratory problems…

利用动态统计模型分析总硝酸盐浓度的时空变化AI 解读

Atmospheric concentrations of total nitrate (TNO3), defined here as gas-phase nitric acid plus particle-phase nitrate, are difficult to simulate in numerical air quality models due to the presence of a variety of formation pathways and loss mechanisms, some of which are highly uncertain. The goal of this study is to estimate the relative importance of these different pathways across the Eastern United States by identifying empirical relationships that exist between TNO3…

扩散张量特征值与特征向量的组间比较AI 解读

Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) data differ from most medical images in that values at each voxel are not scalars, but 3 × 3 symmetric positive definite matrices called diffusion tensors (DTs). The anatomic characteristics of the tissue at each voxel are reflected by the DT eigenvalues and eigenvectors. In this article we consider the problem of testing whether the means of two groups of DT images are equal at each voxel in terms of the DT's eigenvalues, eigenvectors, or…

观察性研究中的设计敏感度与效率AI 解读

An observational study attempts to draw inferences about the effects caused by a treatment when subjects are not randomly assigned to treatment or control as they would be in a randomized trial. After adjustments have been made for imbalances in measured covariates, the key source of uncertainty in an observational study is the possibility that subjects were not comparable prior to treatment in terms of some unmeasured covariate, so that differing outcomes in treated and…

高维协方差矩阵的检验AI 解读

We propose tests for sphericity and identity of high-dimensional covariance matrices. The tests are nonparametric without assuming a specific parametric distribution for the data. They can accommodate situations where the data dimension is much larger than the sample size, namely the “large p, small n” situations. We demonstrate by both theoretical and empirical studies that the tests have good properties for a wide range of dimensions and sample sizes. We applied the…

非参数比例风险模型的全局偏似然AI 解读

As an alternative to the local partial likelihood method of Tibshirani and Hastie and Fan, Gijbels, and King, a global partial likelihood method is proposed to estimate the covariate effect in a nonparametric proportional hazards model, λ(t|x) = exp{ψ(x)}λ(0)(t). The estimator, ψ̂(x), reduces to the Cox partial likelihood estimator if the covariate is discrete. The estimator is shown to be consistent and semiparametrically efficient for linear functionals of ψ(x). Moreover,…

聚类多元数据的非参数分析AI 解读

There is wide interest in extending univariate and multivariate nonparametric procedures to clustered and hierarchical data. Traditionally, parametric mixed models have been used to account for the correlation structures among the dependent observational units. In this work we extend multivariate nonparametric procedures for one-sample and several-sample location problems to clustered data settings. The results are given for a general score function, but with an emphasis on…

利用滚动局部周期图检验时间序列平稳性假设AI 解读

We propose a simple and powerful procedure to validate the assumption of weak stationarity in time series analysis. Our focus is on processes with a slowly varying autocovariance structure. The procedure evaluates the supremum over time of the L2-distance between the local sample spectral density (local periodogram) calculated using a segment of observations falling within a rolling window and an estimator of the spectral density obtained using the entire time series at…

局部协调闭合检验程序的计算捷径AI 解读

The closed testing principle provides a general and simple framework to construct powerful multiple test procedures for k elementary null hypotheses while controlling the familywise error rate in the strong sense. However, the closed testing principle has the disadvantage of leading to the evaluation of O(2k) intersection hypotheses. Multiple test procedures based on the closed testing principle may thus require substantial computational efforts. Consonant closed test…

大型多性状遗传试验的分层空间过程模型AI 解读

This article expands upon recent interest in Bayesian hierarchical models in quantitative genetics by developing spatial process models for inference on additive and dominance genetic variance within the context of large spatially referenced trial datasets of multiple traits of interest. Direct application of such multivariate models to large spatial datasets is often computationally infeasible because of cubic order matrix algorithms involved in estimation. The situation is…

用于音乐分析的动态非参数贝叶斯模型AI 解读

The dynamic hierarchical Dirichlet process (dHDP) is developed to model complex sequential data, with a focus on audio signals from music. The music is represented in terms of a sequence of discrete observations, and the sequence is modeled using a hidden Markov model (HMM) with time-evolving parameters. The dHDP imposes the belief that observations that are temporally proximate are more likely to be drawn from HMMs with similar parameters, while also allowing for…

基于广义Kendall’s Tau的多性状关联检验AI 解读

In many genetics studies, especially in the investigation of mental illness and behavioral disorders, it is common for researchers to collect multiple phenotypes to characterize the complex disease of interest. It may be advantageous to analyze those phenotypic measurements simultaneously if they share a similar genetic mechanism. In this study, we present a nonparametric approach to studying multiple traits together rather than examining each trait separately. Through…

比较多维结局的秩检验AI 解读

For comparison of multiple outcomes commonly encountered in biomedical research, Huang et al. (2005) improved O'Brien's (1984) rank-sum tests through the replacement of the ad hoc variance by the asymptotic variance of the test statistics. The improved tests control the Type I error rate at the desired level and gain power when the differences between the two comparison groups in each outcome variable fall into the same direction. However, they may lose power when the…

比较案例研究的合成控制方法：估计加州控烟计划的效果AI 解读

Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investigates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the effects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that California implemented in 1988. We demonstrate that, following Proposition 99, tobacco consumption fell markedly in California relative to a comparable synthetic control region. We…

随机系数模型的非参数分析AI 解读

Linearity in a causal relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors is a common assumption throughout economics. In this paper we consider the case when the coefficients in this relationship are random and distributed independently from the regressors. Our aim is to identify and estimate the distribution of the coefficients nonparametrically. We propose a kernel-based estimator for the joint probability density of the coefficients. Although this estimator…

非受限 ECCC-GARCH 模型中的负向波动溢出AI 解读

This paper considers a formulation of the extended constant or time-varying conditional correlation GARCH model that allows for volatility feedback of either the positive or negative sign. In the previous literature, negative volatility spillovers were ruled out by the assumption that all the parameters of the model are nonnegative, which is a sufficient condition for ensuring the positive definiteness of the conditional covariance matrix. In order to allow for negative…

异方差时间序列模型的渐近分布无关诊断检验AI 解读

This article investigates model checks for a class of possibly nonlinear heteroskedastic time series models, including but not restricted to ARMA-GARCH models. We propose omnibus tests based on functionals of certain weighted standardized residual empirical processes. The new tests are asymptotically distribution-free, suitable when the conditioning set is infinite-dimensional, and consistent against a class of Pitman’s local alternatives converging at the parametric rate n…

协方差估计的两阶段代入带宽选择及其实施AI 解读

The two most popular bandwidth choice rules for kernel HAC estimation have been proposed by Andrews (1991) and Newey and West (1994). This paper suggests an alternative approach that estimates an unknown quantity in the optimal bandwidth for the HAC estimator (called normalized curvature ) using a general class of kernels, and derives the optimal bandwidth that minimizes the asymptotic mean squared error of the estimator of normalized curvature. It is shown that the optimal…

条件误差修正模型中的协整筛式 bootstrap 检验AI 解读

In this paper we propose a bootstrap version of the Wald test for cointegration in a single-equation conditional error correction model. The multivariate sieve bootstrap is used to deal with dependence in the series. We show that the introduced bootstrap test is asymptotically valid. We also analyze the small sample properties of our test by simulation and compare it with the asymptotic test and several alternative bootstrap tests. The bootstrap test offers significant…

无限阶非平稳自回归的预测误差AI 解读

Assume that observations are generated from nonstationary autoregressive (AR) processes of infinite order. We adopt a finite-order approximation model to predict future observations and obtain an asymptotic expression for the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of the least squares predictor. This expression provides the first exact assessment of the impacts of nonstationarity, model complexity, and model misspecification on the corresponding MSPE. It not only provides a…