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面板数据均值与方差的共同断点AI 解读

This paper establishes the consistency of the estimated common break point in panel data. Consistency is obtainable even when a regime contains a single observation, making it possible to quickly identify the onset of a new regime. We also propose a new framework for developing the limiting distribution for the estimated break point, and show how to construct confidence intervals. The least squares method is used for estimating breaks in means and the quasi-maximum…

一般删失下半参数多元生存函数的估计与模型选择AI 解读

We study estimation and model selection of semiparametric models of multivariate survival functions for censored data, which are characterized by possibly misspecified parametric copulas and nonparametric marginal survivals. We obtain the consistency and root-n asymptotic normality of a two-step copula estimator to the pseudo-true copula parameter value according to KLIC, and provide a simple consistent estimator of its asymptotic variance, allowing for a first-step…

结构计量模型中的间接推断AI 解读

This paper considers parametric inference in a wide range of structural econometric models. It illustrates how the indirect inference principle can be used in the inference of these models. Specifically, we show that an ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation can be used as an auxiliary model, which leads to a method that is similar in spirit to a two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimator. Monte Carlo studies and an empirical analysis of timber sale auctions held in Oregon…

一类新的金融传染检验及其应用AI 解读

A new class of tests of contagion is proposed identifying transmission channels of financial market crises through changes in higher order moments of the distribution of returns such as coskewness. Applying the framework to test for contagion in real estate and equity markets following the Hong Kong crisis in 1997–1998 and the U.S. subprime crisis in 2007 shows that the coskewness-based tests of contagion detect additional channels not identified by the correlation-based…

分位数回归推断的贝叶斯非参数方法AI 解读

We develop a Bayesian method for nonparametric model–based quantile regression. The approach involves flexible Dirichlet process mixture models for the joint distribution of the response and the covariates, with posterior inference for different quantile curves emerging from the conditional response distribution given the covariates. An extension to allow for partially observed responses leads to a novel Tobit quantile regression framework. We use simulated data sets and two…

大规模数据近似因子模型中确定因子数量的检验程序AI 解读

The paradigm of a factor model is very appealing and has been used extensively in economic analyses. Underlying the factor model is the idea that a large number of economic variables can be adequately modeled by a small number of indicator variables. Throughout this extensive research activity on large dimensional factor models a major preoccupation has been the development of tools for determining the number of factors needed for modeling. This article provides an…

大麻非刑罪化与吸食率：来自澳大利亚的证据AI 解读

This article uses the 2001 National Drug Strategy Household Survey to assess the impact of marijuana decriminalization policy on marijuana smoking prevalence in Australia. Both parametric and nonparametric methods are used. The parametric approach includes endogenous probit switching, two-part, sample selection, and standard dummy variable models, while the nonparametric approach uses propensity score stratification matching. Specification analyses are also conducted. A…

双峰t统计量：厚尾对统计推断的影响AI 解读

This paper studies the distribution of the classical t-ratio with data generated from distributions with no finite moments and shows how classical testing is affected by bimodality. A key condition in generating bimodality is independence of the observations in the underlying data-generating process (DGP). The paper highlights the strikingly different implications of lack of correlation versus statistical independence in DGPs with infinite moments and shows how standard…

改进动态模型的稳健模型选择检验AI 解读

We propose an improved model selection test for dynamic models using a new asymptotic approximation to the sampling distribution of a new test statistic. The model selection test is applicable to dynamic models with very general selection criteria and estimation methods. Since our test statistic does not assume the exact form of a true model, the test is essentially non-parametric once competing models are estimated. For the unknown serial correlation in data, we use a…

检验 GMM 中常规渐近近似的适用性AI 解读

but under the alternative, the robust confidence set has high probability of being unbounded. Copyright The Author(s). Journal compilation Royal Economic Society 2010.

具有网络结构的社会互动模型：设定与估计AI 解读

This paper considers the specification and estimation of social interaction models with network structures and the presence of endogenous, contextual and correlated effects. With macro group settings, group-specific fixed effects are also incorporated in the model. The network structure provides information on the identification of the various interaction effects. We propose a quasi-maximum likelihood approach for the estimation of the model. We derive the asymptotic…

马尔可夫切换 GARCH 模型的理论与推断AI 解读

We develop a Markov-switching GARCH model (MS-GARCH) wherein the conditional mean and variance switch in time from one GARCH process to another. The switching is governed by a hidden Markov chain. We provide sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity and existence of moments of the process. Because of path dependence, maximum likelihood estimation is not feasible. By enlarging the parameter space to include the state variables, Bayesian estimation using a Gibbs sampling…

通过离散化—期望估计实现充分降维AI 解读

In the context of sufficient dimension reduction, the goal is to parsimoniously recover the central subspace of a regression model. Many inverse regression methods use slicing estimation to recover the central subspace. The efficacy of slicing estimation depends heavily upon the number of slices. However, the selection of the number of slices is an open and long-standing problem. In this paper, we propose a discretization-expectation estimation method, which avoids selecting…

协变量自适应随机化下的假设检验理论AI 解读

The covariate-adaptive randomization method was proposed for clinical trials long ago but little theoretical work has been done for statistical inference associated with it. Practitioners often apply test procedures available for simple randomization, which is controversial since procedures valid under simple randomization may not be valid under other randomization schemes. In this paper, we provide some theoretical results for testing hypotheses after covariate-adaptive…

稀疏信号的马蹄估计量AI 解读

This paper proposes a new approach to sparsity, called the horseshoe estimator, which arises from a prior based on multivariate-normal scale mixtures. We describe the estimator’s advantages over existing approaches, including its robustness, adaptivity to different sparsity patterns and analytical tractability. We prove two theorems: one that characterizes the horseshoe estimator’s tail robustness and the other that demonstrates a super-efficient rate of convergence to the…

emax、对数线性与指数模型的最优设计AI 解读

We derive locally D- and EDp-optimal designs for the exponential, log-linear and three-parameter emax models. For each model the locally D- and EDp-optimal designs are supported at the same set of points, while the corresponding weights are different. This indicates that for a given model, D-optimal designs are efficient for estimating the smallest dose that achieves 100p% of the maximum effect in the observed dose range. Conversely, EDp-optimal designs also yield good…

基于积分似然的似然比统计量AI 解读

An integrated likelihood depends only on the parameter of interest and the data, so it can be used as a standard likelihood function for likelihood-based inference. In this paper, the higher-order asymptotic properties of the signed integrated likelihood ratio statistic for a scalar parameter of interest are considered. These results are used to construct a modified integrated likelihood ratio statistic and to suggest a class of prior densities to use in forming the…

响应缺失时边际均值的半参数降维估计AI 解读

Model misspecification can be a concern for high-dimensional data. Nonparametric regression obviates model specification but is impeded by the curse of dimensionality. This paper focuses on the estimation of the marginal mean response when there is missingness in the response and multiple covariates are available. We propose estimating the mean response through nonparametric functional estimation, where the dimension is reduced by a parametric working index. The proposed…

删失数据下的 Copula 推断AI 解读

This paper discusses copula model selection procedures and goodness-of-fit tests under censoring. The proposed methodology is based on a comparison of nonparametric and model-based estimators of the probability integral transformation, K. New weighted estimators for K are introduced. The resulting tests are compared to an existing approach by simulation and illustrated with an example involving bleeding changes in a woman’s reproductive history.

监测大量数据流的高效可扩展方案AI 解读

The sequential changepoint detection problem is studied in the context of global online monitoring of a large number of independent data streams. We are interested in detecting an occurring event as soon as possible, but we do not know when the event will occur, nor do we know which subset of data streams will be affected by the event. A family of scalable schemes is proposed based on the sum of the local cumulative sum, cusum, statistics from each individual data stream,…

元分析中汇总统计量与个体数据的相对效率AI 解读

Meta-analysis is widely used to synthesize the results of multiple studies. Although meta-analysis is traditionally carried out by combining the summary statistics of relevant studies, advances in technologies and communications have made it increasingly feasible to access the original data on individual participants. In the present paper, we investigate the relative efficiency of analyzing original data versus combining summary statistics. We show that, for all commonly…

指数族中的客观贝叶斯与条件推断AI 解读

Objective Bayes methodology is considered for conditional frequentist inference about a canonical parameter in a multi-parameter exponential family. A condition is derived under which posterior Bayes quantiles match the conditional frequentist coverage to a higher-order approximation in terms of the sample size. This condition is on the model, not on the prior, and it ensures that any first-order probability matching prior in the unconditional sense automatically yields…

淘汰劣势治疗设计的区间估计AI 解读

In the first stage of a two-stage, drop-the-losers design, a candidate for the best treatment is selected. At the second stage, additional observations are collected to decide whether the candidate is actually better than the control. The design also allows the investigator to stop the trial for ethical reasons at the end of the first stage if there is already strong evidence of futility or superiority. Two types of tests have recently been developed, one based on the…

格点数据空间线性模型的选择AI 解读

Summary Spatial linear models are popular for the analysis of data on a spatial lattice, but statistical techniques for selection of covariates and a neighbourhood structure are limited. Here we develop new methodology for simultaneous model selection and parameter estimation via penalized maximum likelihood under a spatial adaptive lasso. A computationally efficient algorithm is devised for obtaining approximate penalized maximum likelihood estimates. Asymptotic properties…