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利用局部极大值多重检验检测一维峰值AI 解读

A topological multiple testing scheme for one-dimensional domains is proposed where, rather than testing every spatial or temporal location for the presence of a signal, tests are performed only at the local maxima of the smoothed observed sequence. Assuming unimodal true peaks with finite support and Gaussian stationary ergodic noise, it is shown that the algorithm with Bonferroni or Benjamini-Hochberg correction provides asymptotic strong control of the family wise error…

病例对照抽样下序贯经验ROC、PPV与NPV曲线的渐近性质AI 解读

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the positive predictive value (PPV) curve and the negative predictive value (NPV) curve are three measures of performance for a continuous diagnostic biomarker. The ROC, PPV and NPV curves are often estimated empirically to avoid assumptions about the distributional form of the biomarkers. Recently, there has been a push to incorporate group sequential methods into the design of diagnostic biomarker studies. A thorough…

分数阶时间序列模型的高斯伪极大似然估计AI 解读

We consider the estimation of parametric fractional time series models in which not only is the memory parameter unknown, but one may not know whether it lies in the stationary/invertible region or the nonstationary or noninvertible regions. In these circumstances, a proof of consistency (which is a prerequisite for proving asymptotic normality) can be difficult owing to nonuniform convergence of the objective function over a large admissible parameter space. In particular,…

依赖下 Westfall–Young 多重检验置换程序的渐近最优性AI 解读

Test statistics are often strongly dependent in large-scale multiple testing applications. Most corrections for multiplicity are unduly conservative for correlated test statistics, resulting in a loss of power to detect true positives. We show that the Westfall–Young permutation method has asymptotically optimal power for a broad class of testing problems with a block-dependence and sparsity structure among the tests, when the number of tests tends to infinity.

近似因子模型中的高维协方差矩阵估计AI 解读

The variance covariance matrix plays a central role in the inferential theories of high dimensional factor models in finance and economics. Popular regularization methods of directly exploiting sparsity are not directly applicable to many financial problems. Classical methods of estimating the covariance matrices are based on the strict factor models, assuming independent idiosyncratic components. This assumption, however, is restrictive in practical applications. By…

高于一阶的移动平均模型中的单位根AI 解读

The asymptotic theory of various estimators based on Gaussian likelihood has been developed for the unit root and near unit root cases of a first-order moving average model. Previous studies of the MA(1) unit root problem rely on the special autocovariance structure of the MA(1) process, in which case, the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the covariance matrix of the data vector have known analytical forms. In this paper, we take a different approach to first consider the…

半参数模型中捆绑参数的筛 M 定理及其删失线性模型有效估计应用AI 解读

In many semiparametric models that are parameterized by two types of parameters - a Euclidean parameter of interest and an infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter, the two parameters are bundled together, i.e., the nuisance parameter is an unknown function that contains the parameter of interest as part of its argument. For example, in a linear regression model for censored survival data, the unspecified error distribution function involves the regression coefficients.…

稳健函数型主成分：投影寻踪方法AI 解读

In many situations, data are recorded over a period of time and may be regarded as realizations of a stochastic process. In this paper, robust estimators for the principal components are considered by adapting the projection pursuit approach to the functional data setting. Our approach combines robust projection-pursuit with different smoothing methods. Consistency of the estimators are shown under mild assumptions. The performance of the classical and robust procedures are…

扩散过程的近似最大似然估计AI 解读

The transition density of a diffusion process does not admit an explicit expression in general, which prevents the full maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on discretely observed sample paths. Aït-Sahalia [J. Finance 54 (1999) 1361–1395; Econometrica 70 (2002) 223–262] proposed asymptotic expansions to the transition densities of diffusion processes, which lead to an approximate maximum likelihood estimation (AMLE) for parameters. Built on Aït-Sahalia’s [Econometrica…

When using optimal linear prediction to interpolate point observations of a mean square continuous stationary spatial process, one often finds that the interpolant mostly depends on those observations located nearest to the predictand. This phenomenon is called the screening effect. However, there are situations in which a screening effect does not hold in a reasonable asymptotic sense, and theoretical support for the screening effect is limited to some rather specialized…

波动率的函数型数据分析AI 解读

We introduce a functional volatility process for modeling volatility trajectories for high frequency observations in financial markets and describe functional representations and data-based recovery of the process from repeated observations. A study of its asymptotic properties, as the frequency of observed trades increases, is complemented by simulations and an application to the analysis of intra-day volatility patterns of the S&P 500 index. The proposed volatility model…

时变协整模型的贝叶斯推断AI 解读

There are both theoretical and empirical reasons for believing that the parameters of macroeconomic models may vary over time. However, work with time-varying parameter models has largely involved vector autoregressions (VARs), ignoring cointegration. This is despite the fact that cointegration plays an important role in informing macroeconomists on a range of issues. In this paper, we develop a new time varying parameter model which permits cointegration. We use a…

总体分层份额已知时分层样本的 GMM 推断AI 解读

We show how to do efficient moment based inference using the generalized method of moments (GMM) when data is collected by stratified sampling and the maintained assumption is that the aggregate shares are known.

样本选择模型的贝叶斯推断AI 解读

This paper develops methods of Bayesian inference in a sample selection model. The main feature of this model is that the outcome variable is only partially observed. We first present a Gibbs sampling algorithm for a model in which the selection and outcome errors are normally distributed. The algorithm is then extended to analyze models that are characterized by nonnormality. Specifically, we use a Dirichlet process prior and model the distribution of the unobservables as a…

GARCH 模型的两阶段非高斯 QML 估计与高斯 QMLE 效率检验AI 解读

In generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) models, the standard identifiability assumption that the variance of the iid process is equal to 1 can be replaced by an alternative moment assumption. We show that, for estimating the original specification based on the standard identifiability assumption, efficiency gains can be expected from using a quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator based on a non Gaussian density and a reparameterization based on an…

用于连续似然计算与最大化的粒子滤波方法AI 解读

In this paper, a method is introduced for approximating the likelihood for the unknown parameters of a state space model. The approximation converges to the true likelihood as the simulation size goes to infinity. In addition, the approximating likelihood is continuous as a function of the unknown parameters under rather general conditions. The approach advocated is fast and robust, and it avoids many of the pitfalls associated with current techniques based upon importance…

摘要暂缺

含平稳变量的 VAR 模型中协整秩检验的自助法算法AI 解读

In this paper, a bootstrap algorithm for a reduced rank vector autoregressive (VAR) model which also includes stationary regressors, is analyzed. It is shown that the bootstrap distribution for estimating the rank converges to the distribution derived from the usual asymptotic framework. Because the asymptotic distribution will typically depend on unknown parameters, bootstrap distributions are of considerable interest in this context. The result of an application and some…

使用聚类协方差估计量对依赖数据进行推断AI 解读

This paper presents an inference approach for dependent data in time series, spatial, and panel data applications. The method involves constructing t and Wald statistics using a cluster covariance matrix estimator (CCE). We use an approximation that takes the number of clusters/groups as fixed and the number of observations per group to be large. The resulting limiting distributions of the t and Wald statistics are standard t and F distributions where the number of groups…

稀疏线性判别分析的直接估计方法AI 解读

This article considers sparse linear discriminant analysis of high-dimensional data. In contrast to the existing methods which are based on separate estimation of the precision matrix Ω and the difference δ of the mean vectors, we introduce a simple and effective classifier by estimating the product Ωδ directly through constrained ℓ1 minimization. The estimator can be implemented efficiently using linear programming and the resulting classifier is called the linear…

一种新的干扰参数消除方法及其在无序同源染色体对问题中的应用AI 解读

Motivated by applications of the case–control model or exponential tilting model in the unordered homologous chromosome pairs problem in genetic studies and in the interim analysis in double-blinded clinical trials, we develop a new nuisance-parameter elimination method based on the empirical Shannon’s mutual information. The asymptotic behaviors of the maximum empirical Shannon’s mutual information estimation and the empirical Shannon’s mutual information test are similar…

基于非二部匹配的非参数同质性检验AI 解读

Given a sequence of observations, has a change occurred in the underlying probability distribution with respect to observation order? This problem of detecting change points arises in a variety of applications including health prognostics for mechanical systems, syndromic disease surveillance in geographically dispersed populations, anomaly detection in information networks, and multivariate process control in general. Detecting change points in high-dimensional settings is…

评估有序与连续测量间广义一致性的框架AI 解读

Conventional agreement studies have been confined to addressing the sense of reproducibility, and therefore are limited to assessing measurements on the same scale. In this work, we propose a new concept, called "broad sense agreement," which extends the classical framework of agreement to evaluate the capability of interpreting a continuous measurement in an ordinal scale. We present a natural measure for broad sense agreement. Nonparametric estimation and inference…

一般高斯图模型的贝叶斯推断及其在多变量格点数据中的应用AI 解读

We introduce efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for inference and model determination in multivariate and matrix-variate Gaussian graphical models. Our framework is based on the G-Wishart prior for the precision matrix associated with graphs that can be decomposable or non-decomposable. We extend our sampling algorithms to a novel class of conditionally autoregressive models for sparse estimation in multivariate lattice data, with a special emphasis on the analysis…