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激励之外：学校是否有效使用问责奖励？AI 解读

We use a regression discontinuity design to analyze an understudied aspect of school accountability systems—how schools use financial rewards. For two years, California's accountability system financially rewarded schools based on a deterministic function of test scores. Qualifying schools received per-pupil awards amounting to about 1% of statewide per-pupil spending. Corroborating anecdotal evidence that awards were paid out as teacher bonuses, we find no evidence that…

评论：多预测期限制与预测理性检验AI 解读

Patton and Timmermann (2011) propose new and creative forecast rationality tests based on multi-horizon restrictions. The novelty is to consider the implications of forecast rationality jointly acr...

评论：多预测期固定目标预测的理性AI 解读

I enjoyed reading yet another article by Patton and Timmermann (PT hereafter) and feel that it has broken new ground in testing the rationality of a sequence of multi-horizon fixed-target forecasts...

基于多预测期限界限的预测理性检验AI 解读

Forecast rationality under squared error loss implies various bounds on second moments of the data across forecast horizons. For example, the mean squared forecast error should be increasing in the horizon, and the mean squared forecast should be decreasing in the horizon. We propose rationality tests based on these restrictions, including new ones that can be conducted without data on the target variable, and implement them via tests of inequality constraints in a…

嵌套预测模型的现实检验与比较AI 解读

This article develops a simple bootstrap method for simulating asymptotic critical values for tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing among many nested models. Our method combines elements of fixed regressor and wild bootstraps. We first derive the asymptotic distributions of tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing applied to forecasts from multiple models that nest the benchmark model—that is, reality check tests. We then prove the validity of the…

非零阈值 Tobit 模型中的聚焦信息准则、模型选择与模型平均AI 解读

Claeskens and Hjort (2003) have developed a focused information criterion (FIC) for model selection that selects different models based on different focused functions with those functions tailored to the parameters singled out for interest. Hjort and Claeskens (2003) also have presented model averaging as an alternative to model selection, and suggested a local misspecification framework for studying the limiting distributions and asymptotic risk properties of post-model…

一为众、众为一：多回归变量下的回归模型检验AI 解读

We develop a novel approach to building checks of parametric regression models when many regressors are present, based on a class of sufficiently rich semiparametric alternatives, namely single-index models. We propose an omnibus test based on the kernel method that performs against a sequence of directional nonparametric alternatives as if there was only one regressor whatever the number of regressors. This test can be viewed as a smooth version of the integrated…

非单调无应答面板数据中不可忽略缺失的影响评估AI 解读

SUMMARY The analysis of panel data with non‐monotone nonresponse often relies on the critical and untestable assumption of ignorable missingness. It is important to assess the consequences of departures from the ignorability assumption. Non‐monotone nonresponse, however, can often make such sensitivity analysis infeasible because the likelihood functions for alternative models involve high‐dimensional and difficult‐to‐evaluate integrals with respect to missing outcomes. We…

排除限制不确定时的工具变量回归：贝叶斯方法AI 解读

SUMMARY The identification of structural parameters in the linear instrumental variables (IV) model is typically achieved by imposing the prior identifying assumption that the error term in the structural equation of interest is orthogonal to the instruments. Since this exclusion restriction is fundamentally untestable, there are often legitimate doubts about the extent to which the exclusion restriction holds. In this paper I illustrate the effects of such prior uncertainty…

代际流动表中的随机单调性AI 解读

SUMMARY The aim of this paper is to test for stochastic monotonicity in intergenerational socio‐economic mobility tables. In other words, we question whether having a parent from a high socio‐economic status is never worse than having one with a lower status. Using existing inferential procedures for testing unconditional stochastic monotonicity, we first test a set of 149 intergenerational mobility tables in 35 different countries and find that monotonicity cannot be…

分数协整向量自回归模型的似然推断AI 解读

We consider model based inference in a fractionally cointegrated (or cofractional) vector autoregressive model with a restricted constant term, ¿, based on the Gaussian likelihood conditional on initial values. The model nests the I(d) VAR model. We give conditions on the parameters such that the process X_{t} is fractional of order d and cofractional of order d-b; that is, there exist vectors ß for which ß'X_{t} is fractional of order d-b, and no other fractionality order…

最优工具变量的稀疏模型与方法：征收权应用AI 解读

We develop results for the use of LASSO and Post-LASSO methods to form firststage predictions and estimate optimal instruments in linear instrumental variables (IV) models with many instruments, p, that apply even when p is much larger than the sample size, n.We rigorously develop asymptotic distribution and inference theory for the resulting IV estimators and provide conditions under which these estimators are asymptotically oracle-efficient.In simulation experiments, the…

线性工具变量回归中子集 AR 与 LM 检验的渐近尺寸AI 解读

We consider tests of a simple null hypothesis on a subset of the coefficients of the exogenous and endogenous regressors in a single-equation linear instrumental variables regression model with potentially weak identification. Existing methods of subset inference (i) rely on the assumption that the parameters not under test are strongly identified, or (ii) are based on projection-type arguments. We show that, under homoskedasticity, the subset Anderson and Rubin (1949) test…

矩不等式定义参数的推断：一种推荐的矩选择程序AI 解读

This paper is concerned with tests and confidence intervals for parameters that are not necessarily point identified and are defined by moment inequalities. In the literature, different test statistics, critical-value methods, and implementation methods (i.e., the asymptotic distribution versus the bootstrap) have been proposed. In this paper, we compare these methods. We provide a recommended test statistic, moment selection critical value, and implementation method. We…

“非正则”相关随机系数面板模型中平均偏效应的识别与估计AI 解读

In this paper we study identification and estimation of a correlated random coefficients (CRC) panel data model. The outcome of interest varies linearly with a vector of endogenous regressors. The coefficients on these regressors are heterogenous across units and may covary with them. We consider the average partial effect (APE) of a small change in the regressor vector on the outcome (cf. Chamberlain (1984), Wooldridge (2005a)). Chamberlain (1992) calculated the…

单位根假设的近有效似然比检验AI 解读

Seemingly absent from the arsenal of currently available "nearly e¢ cient" testing procedures for the unit root hypothesis, i.e. tests whose asymptotic local power functions are virtually indistinguishable from the Gaussian power envelope, is a test admitting a (quasi-)likelihood ratio interpretation.We study the large sample properties of a quasi-likelihood ratio unit root test based on a Gaussian likelihood and show that this test is nearly e¢ cient.

部分分布政策效应AI 解读

In this paper, we propose a method to evaluate the effect of a counterfactual change in the unconditional distribution of a single covariate on the unconditional distribution of an outcome variable of interest. Both fixed and infinitesimal changes are considered. We show that such effects are point identified under general conditions if the covariate affected by the counterfactual change is continuously distributed, but are typically only partially identified if its…

弱、半强与强识别下的估计和推断AI 解读

This paper analyzes the properties of standard estimators, tests, and confidence sets (CS's) for parameters that are unidentified or weakly identified in some parts of the parameter space. The paper also introduces methods to make the tests and CS's robust to such identification problems. The results apply to a class of extremum estimators and corresponding tests and CS's that are based on criterion functions that satisfy certain asymptotic stochastic quadratic expansions…

结构分位数效应的非参数工具变量估计AI 解读

We study the asymptotic distribution of Tikhonov Regularized estimation of quantile structural effects implied by a nonseparable model. The nonparametric instrumental variable estimator is based on a minimum distance principle. We show that the minimum distance problem without regularization is locally ill-posed, and consider penalization by the norms of the parameter and its derivatives. We derive pointwise asymptotic normality and develop a consistent estimator of the…

不可微泛函的不可能性结果AI 解读

We examine challenges to estimation and inference when the objects of interest are nondifferentiable functionals of the underlying data distribution. This situation arises in a number of applications of bounds analysis and moment inequality models, and in recent work on estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes. Drawing on earlier work relating differentiability to the existence of unbiased and regular estimators, we show that if the target object is not differentiable in…

局部误设矩不等式模型中渐近置信水平的失真AI 解读

This paper studies the behavior, under local misspecification, of several confidence sets (CSs) commonly used in the literature on inference in moment (in)equality models. We propose the amount of asymptotic confidence size distortion as a criterion to choose among competing inference methods. This criterion is then applied to compare across test statistics and critical values employed in the construction of CSs. We find two important results under weak assumptions. First,…

向量自回归模型中协整秩的自助法确定AI 解读

This paper discusses a consistent bootstrap implementation of the likelihood ratio (LR) co-integration rank test and associated sequential rank determination procedure of Johansen (1996). The bootstrap samples are constructed using the restricted parameter estimates of the underlying vector autoregressive (VAR) model that obtain under the reduced rank null hypothesis. A full asymptotic theory is provided that shows that, unlike the bootstrap procedure in Swensen (2006) where…

《区制转换检验》评论AI 解读

For such a model, we show that consistency of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator for the population parameter values, on which consistency of the test is based, does not hold. We describe a condition that ensures consistency of the estimator and discuss the consistency of the test in the absence of consistency of the estimator. In Cho and White (2007), Testing for Regime Switching, the authors stud ied the asymptotic behavior of a statistic that tests the null hypothesis…

波动率的已实现拉普拉斯变换AI 解读

We introduce and derive the asymptotic behavior of a new measure constructed from high-frequency data which we call the realized Laplace transform of volatility. The statistic provides a nonparametric estimate for the empirical Laplace transform function of the latent stochastic volatility process over a given interval of time and is robust to the presence of jumps in the price process. With a long span of data, that is, under joint long-span and infill asymptotics, the…