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自回归根与预测回归的置信区间AI 解读

Local to unity limit theory is used in applications to construct confidence intervals (CIs) for autoregressive roots through inversion of a unit root test (Stock (1991)). Such CIs are asymptotically valid when the true model has an autoregressive root that is local to unity (ρ = 1 + c/n), but are shown here to be invalid at the limits of the domain of definition of the localizing coefficient c because of a failure in tightness and the escape of probability mass. Failure at…

动态金融约束：区分机制设计与外生不完备制度AI 解读

We formulate and solve a range of dynamic models of constrained credit/insurance that allow for moral hazard and limited commitment. We compare them to full insurance and exogenously incomplete financial regimes (autarky, saving only, borrowing and lending in a single asset). We develop computational methods based on mechanism design, linear programming, and maximum likelihood to estimate, compare, and statistically test these alternative dynamic models with…

马尔可夫切换参数的最优检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a class of optimal tests for the constancy of parameters in random coefficients models. Our testing procedure covers the class of Hamilton's models, where the parameters vary according to an unobservable Markov chain, but also applies to nonlinear models where the random coefficients need not be Markov. We show that the contiguous alternatives converge to the null hypothesis at a rate that is slower than the standard rate. Therefore, standard approaches…

凸矩不等式模型的渐近有效估计AI 解读

This paper examines the efficient estimation of partially identified models defined by moment inequalities that are convex in the parameter of interest. In such a setting, the identified set is itself convex and hence fully characterized by its support function. We provide conditions under which, despite being an infinite dimensional parameter, the support function admits √n‐consistent regular estimators. A semiparametric efficiency bound is then derived for its estimation,…

基于模拟的熵式潜变量积分AI 解读

This paper introduces a general method to convert a model defined by moment conditions that involve both observed and unobserved variables into equivalent moment conditions that involve only observable variables. This task can be accomplished without introducing infinite‐dimensional nuisance parameters using a least favorable entropy‐maximizing distribution. We demonstrate, through examples and simulations, that this approach covers a wide class of latent variables models,…

精英幻象：波士顿与纽约考试选拔学校的学业效果AI 解读

Parents gauge school quality in part by the level of student achievement and a school's racial and socioeconomic mix. The importance of school characteristics in the housing market can be seen in the jump in house prices at school district boundaries where peer characteristics change. The question of whether schools with more attractive peers are really better in a value‐added sense remains open, however. This paper uses a fuzzy regression‐discontinuity design to evaluate…

回归模型中随机效应的简单检验AI 解读

Testing that random effects are zero is difficult, because the null hypothesis restricts the corresponding variance parameter to the edge of the feasible parameter space. In the context of generalized linear mixed models, this paper exploits the link between random effects and penalized regression to develop a simple test for a zero effect. The idea is to treat the variance components not being tested as fixed at their estimates and then to express the likelihood ratio as a…

自适应设计中与闭合检验相容的同时置信区间AI 解读

We describe a general method for finding a confidence region for a parameter vector that is compatible with the decisions of a two-stage closed test procedure in an adaptive experiment. The closed test procedure is characterized by the fact that rejection or nonrejection of a null hypothesis may depend on the decisions for other hypotheses and the compatible confidence region will, in general, have a complex, nonrectangular shape. We find the smallest cross-product of…

通过自适应核范数惩罚进行降秩回归AI 解读

We propose an adaptive nuclear norm penalization approach for low-rank matrix approximation, and use it to develop a new reduced rank estimation method for high-dimensional multivariate regression. The adaptive nuclear norm is defined as the weighted sum of the singular values of the matrix, and it is generally non-convex under the natural restriction that the weight decreases with the singular value. However, we show that the proposed non-convex penalized regression method…

具有变化平滑参数的平滑样条AI 解读

This paper considers the development of spatially adaptive smoothing splines for the estimation of a regression function with nonhomogeneous smoothness across the domain. Two challenging issues arising in this context are the evaluation of the equivalent kernel and the determination of a local penalty. The penalty is a function of the design points in order to accommodate local behaviour of the regression function. We show that the spatially adaptive smoothing spline…

利用数据依赖自由度处理边界约束的似然比检验AI 解读

When the null hypothesis constrains parameters to the boundary of the parameter space, the asymptotic null distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic is often a mixture of chi-squared distributions, giving rise to the so-called chi-bar test, where weights can depend on the true unknown parameter and be difficult to calculate. We consider the test that conditions on the observed number of null hypothesis parameters in the interior of the parameter space. This approach…

控制稳健小区域估计量的偏差AI 解读

Sinha & Rao (2009) proposed estimation procedures designed for small-area means, based on robustified maximum likelihood estimators and robust empirical best linear unbiased predictors. Their methods are of the plug-in type and may be biased. Bias-corrected estimators have been proposed by Chambers et al. (2013). Here, we investigate two new approaches: one relying on the work of Chambers (1986), and the second using the concept of conditional bias to measure the influence…

收缩先验下线性模型的后验一致性AI 解读

We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of posterior distributions of regression coefficients in high-dimensional linear models as the number of dimensions grows with the number of observations. We show that the posterior distribution concentrates in neighbourhoods of the true parameter under simple sufficient conditions. These conditions hold under popular shrinkage priors given some sparsity assumptions.

缩放包络：多元线性回归中的尺度不变与高效估计AI 解读

Efficient estimation of the regression coefficients is a fundamental problem in multivariate linear regression. The envelope model proposed by Cook et al. (2010) was shown to have the potential to achieve substantial efficiency gains by accounting for linear combinations of the response vector that are essentially immaterial to coefficient estimation. This requires in part that the distribution of those linear combinations be invariant to changes in the nonstochastic…

复杂抽样下的两样本秩检验AI 解读

Rank tests are widely used for exploratory and formal inference in the health and social sciences. With the widespread use of data from complex survey samples in medical and social research, there is increasing demand for versions of rank tests that account for the sampling design. We propose a general approach to constructing design-based rank tests when comparing groups within a complex sample and when using a national survey as a reference distribution, and illustrate…

接收者操作特征曲线的复合分位数回归AI 解读

The covariate-specific receiver operating characteristic curve is frequently used to evaluate the classification accuracy of a diagnostic test when it is associated with certain covariates. In this paper, we propose a new procedure for estimating this curve based on a reformulation of the conventional location-scale model and the idea of composite quantile regression. Asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators is established, both for the regression parameters and for…

关于离散分布无分布检验的注记AI 解读

The paper proposes one-to-one transformation of the vector of components $\{Y_{in}\}_{i=1}^{m}$ of Pearson’s chi-square statistic, \[Y_{in}=\frac{\nu_{in}-np_{i}}{\sqrt{np_{i}}},\qquad i=1,\ldots,m,\] into another vector $\{Z_{in}\}_{i=1}^{m}$, which, therefore, contains the same “statistical information,” but is asymptotically distribution free. Hence any functional/test statistic based on $\{Z_{in}\}_{i=1}^{m}$ is also asymptotically distribution free. Natural examples of…

时间序列的一种非标准经验似然AI 解读

Standard blockwise empirical likelihood (BEL) for stationary, weakly dependent time series requires specifying a fixed block length as a tuning parameter for setting confidence regions. This aspect can be difficult and impacts coverage accuracy. As an alternative, this paper proposes a new version of BEL based on a simple, though nonstandard, data-blocking rule which uses a data block of every possible length. Consequently, the method does not involve the usual block…

控制错误发现率的高斯图模型估计AI 解读

This paper studies the estimation of a high-dimensional Gaussian graphical model (GGM). Typically, the existing methods depend on regularization techniques. As a result, it is necessary to choose the regularized parameter. However, the precise relationship between the regularized parameter and the number of false edges in GGM estimation is unclear. In this paper we propose an alternative method by a multiple testing procedure. Based on our new test statistics for conditional…

高维时间序列的协方差与精度矩阵估计AI 解读

We consider estimation of covariance matrices and their inverses (a.k.a. precision matrices) for high-dimensional stationary and locally stationary time series. In the latter case the covariance matrices evolve smoothly in time, thus forming a covariance matrix function. Using the functional dependence measure of Wu [Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 102 (2005) 14150–14154 (electronic)], we obtain the rate of convergence for the thresholded estimate and illustrate how the…

隐马尔可夫模型粒子滤波的一般理论及应用AI 解读

By making use of martingale representations, we derive the asymptotic normality of particle filters in hidden Markov models and a relatively simple formula for their asymptotic variances. Although repeated resamplings result in complicated dependence among the sample paths, the asymptotic variance formula and martingale representations lead to consistent estimates of the standard errors of the particle filter estimates of the hidden states.

稀疏回归中的置信集AI 解读

The problem of constructing confidence sets in the high-dimensional linear model with $n$ response variables and $p$ parameters, possibly $p\ge n$, is considered. Full honest adaptive inference is possible if the rate of sparse estimation does not exceed $n^{-1/4}$, otherwise sparse adaptive confidence sets exist only over strict subsets of the parameter spaces for which sparse estimators exist. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of confidence sets that…

稀疏与列间依赖下高维均值检验的 Higher Criticism 替代方法AI 解读

We consider two alternative tests to the Higher Criticism test of Donoho and Jin [Ann. Statist. 32 (2004) 962–994] for high-dimensional means under the sparsity of the nonzero means for sub-Gaussian distributed data with unknown column-wise dependence. The two alternative test statistics are constructed by first thresholding $L_{1}$ and $L_{2}$ statistics based on the sample means, respectively, followed by maximizing over a range of thresholding levels to make the tests…

构造函数型数据分类器时离散数据平滑带宽的意外性质AI 解读

The data functions that are studied in the course of functional data analysis are assembled from discrete data, and the level of smoothing that is used is generally that which is appropriate for accurate approximation of the conceptually smooth functions that were not actually observed. Existing literature shows that this approach is effective, and even optimal, when using functional data methods for prediction or hypothesis testing. However, in the present paper we show…