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固定效应面板模型中参数回归函数形式的一致非参数检验AI 解读

We propose a consistent test for a linear functional form against a nonparametric alternative in a fixed effects panel data model. We show that the test has a limiting standard normal distribution under the null hypothesis, and show that the test is a consistent test. We also establish the asymptotic validity of a bootstrap procedure which is used to better approximate the finite sample null distribution of the test statistic. Simulation results show that the proposed test…

应用经济学中的稳健性检查与稳健性检验AI 解读

A common exercise in empirical studies is a “robustness check”, where the researcher examines how certain “core” regression coefficient estimates behave when the regression specification is modified by adding or removing regressors. If the coefficients are plausible and robust, this is commonly interpreted as evidence of structural validity. Here, we study when and how one can infer structural validity from coefficient robustness and plausibility. As we show, there are…

波动率活动度：模型设定与估计AI 解读

The paper examines volatility activity and its asymmetry and undertakes further specification analysis of volatility models based on it. We develop new nonparametric statistics using high-frequency option-based VIX data to test for asymmetry in volatility jumps. We also develop methods for estimating and evaluating, using price data alone, a general encompassing model for volatility dynamics where volatility activity is unrestricted. The nonparametric application to VIX…

矩条件模型中被忽略的参数异质性AI 解读

The central concern of this paper is parameter heterogeneity in models specified by a number of unconditional or conditional moment conditions and thereby the provision of a framework for the development of apposite optimal m-tests against its potential presence. We initially consider the unconditional moment restrictions framework. Optimal m-tests against moment condition parameter heterogeneity are derived with the relevant Jacobian matrix obtained in terms of the second…

无需估计极限过程特征对的平滑检验构造AI 解读

Based on the well known Karhunen–Loève expansion, it can be shown that many omnibus tests lack power against “high frequency” alternatives. The smooth tests of Neyman (1937) may be employed to circumvent this power deficiency problem. Yet, such tests may be difficult to compute in many applications. In this paper, we propose a more operational approach to constructing smooth tests. This approach hinges on a Fourier representation of the postulated empirical process with…

模型可能误设时的替代拟似然、贝叶斯分析与模型设定推断AI 解读

This paper studies an alternative quasi likelihood approach under possible model misspecification. We derive a filtered likelihood from a given quasi likelihood (QL), called a limited information quasi likelihood (LI-QL), that contains relevant but limited information on the data generation process. Our LI-QL approach, in one hand, extends robustness of the QL approach to inference problems for which the existing approach does not apply. Our study in this paper, on the other…

相关但不协整变量的模型设定检验AI 解读

Many macroeconomic and financial variables show highly persistent and correlated patterns but are not necessarily cointegrated. Recently, Sun et al. (2011) propose using a semiparametric varying coefficient approach to capture correlations between integrated but non cointegrated variables. Due to the complication arising from the integrated disturbance term and the semiparametric functional form, consistent estimation of such a semiparametric model requires stronger…

统一验证单变量与多变量时间序列条件分布模型AI 解读

Modeling conditional distributions in time series has attracted increasing attention in economics and finance. We develop a new class of generalized Cramer–von Mises (GCM) specification tests for time series conditional distribution models using a novel approach, which embeds the empirical distribution function in a spectral framework. Our tests check a large number of lags and are therefore expected to be powerful against neglected dynamics at higher order lags, which is…

半参数变系数模型中的协整关系检验AI 解读

In this paper, we develop two cointegration tests for two varying coefficient cointegration regression models, respectively. Our test statistics are residual based. We derive the asymptotic distributions of test statistics under the null hypothesis of cointegration and show that they are consistent against the alternative hypotheses. We also propose a wild bootstrap procedure companioned with the continuous moving block bootstrap method proposed in Paparoditis and Politis…

反事实均值的非参数推断：偏差修正、置信集与弱工具变量AI 解读

This paper supplements Manski (1990) and Manski and Pepper (2000) and contributes to the literature by introducing the concept of weak IV for the partially identified mean counterfactual outcomes when an instrumental variable (IV) or a monotone instrumental variable (MIV) is available (IV or MIV assumption respectively); developing asymptotically uniformly valid confidence sets for the counterfactual mean outcomes and average treatment effects under the assumptions;…

交互效应分位数回归模型的估计与检验AI 解读

This paper proposes a quantile regression estimator for a model with interactive effects potentially correlated with covariates. We provide conditions under which the estimator is asymptotically Gaussian and we investigate the finite sample performance of the method. An approach to testing the specification against a competing fixed effects specification is introduced. The paper presents an application to study the effect of class size and composition on educational…

含非平稳解释变量的预测回归模型检验AI 解读

Due to nonstationary (nearly integrated or integrated) regressors and the embedded endogeneity, a linear predictive regression model produces biased coefficient estimates, which consequentially leads to the conventional t-test to over-reject the misspecification test. In this paper, our aim is to find an appropriate and easily implemented method for estimating and testing coefficients in predictive regression models. We apply a projection method to remove the embedded…

非参数位置—尺度模型中的前沿估计AI 解读

Conditional efficiency captures efficiency of firms facing heterogeneous environmental conditions. Traditional approaches estimate nonparametrically conditional distribution requiring smoothing techniques. We rather use a flexible nonparametric location-scale model to eliminate the dependence of inputs/outputs on these factors. These “pre-whitened” inputs/outputs define the optimal frontier function and a “pure” measure of efficiency more reliable to produce rankings, since…

固定效应模型中的异方差检验AI 解读

We derive tests for heteroskedasticity after fixed effects estimation of linear panel models. The asymptotic results are based on a ‘large N–fixed T’ framework, where the incidental parameters problem is bypassed by utilizing a (pseudo) likelihood function conditional on the sufficient statistic for these parameters. A simple ‘studentization’ produces distribution free tests that can easily be implemented using an artificial regression based on residuals after fixed effects…

含单指标干扰参数的半参数模型AI 解读

In many semiparametric models, the parameter of interest is identified through conditional expectations, where the conditioning variable involves a single-index that is estimated in the first step. Among the examples are sample selection models and propensity score matching estimators. When the first-step estimator follows cube-root asymptotics, no method of analyzing the asymptotic variance of the second step estimator exists in the literature. This paper provides…

用于估计与检验的非参数及半参数残差加权和的一致收敛AI 解读

A new uniform expansion is introduced for sums of weighted kernel-based regression residuals from nonparametric or semiparametric models. This expansion is useful for deriving asymptotic properties of semiparametric estimators and test statistics with data-dependent bandwidths, random trimming, and estimated efficiency weights. Provided examples include a new estimator for a binary choice model with selection and an associated directional test for specification of this…

SUMMARY We consider the dynamic factor model and show how smoothness restrictions can be imposed on factor loadings by using cubic spline functions. We develop statistical procedures based on Wald, Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio tests for this purpose. The methodology is illustrated by analyzing a newly updated monthly time series panel of US term structure of interest rates. Dynamic factor models with and without smooth loadings are compared with dynamic models…

企业异质性、持续与暂时技术无效率：广义真实随机效应模型AI 解读

SUMMARY This paper considers a panel data stochastic frontier model that disentangles unobserved firm effects (firm heterogeneity) from persistent (time‐invariant/long‐term) and transient (time‐varying/short‐term) technical inefficiency. The model gives us a four‐way error component model, viz., persistent and time‐varying inefficiency, random firm effects and noise. We use Bayesian methods of inference to provide robust and efficient methods of estimating inefficiency…

分数阶单位根与协整检验的数值分布函数AI 解读

SUMMARY We calculate, by simulations, numerical asymptotic distribution functions of likelihood ratio tests for fractional unit roots and cointegration rank. Because these distributions depend on a real‐valued parameter b which must be estimated, simple tabulation is not feasible. Partly owing to the presence of this parameter, the choice of model specification for the response surface regressions used to obtain the numerical distribution functions is more involved than is…

SUMMARY We provide the first empirical application of a new approach proposed by Lee ( Journal of Econometrics 2007; 140 (2), 333–374) to estimate peer effects in a linear‐in‐means model when individuals interact in groups. Assumingsufficient group size variation, this approach allows to control for correlated effects at the group level and to solve the simultaneity (reflection) problem. We clarify the intuition behind identification of peer effects in the model. We…

利用稳定性限制进行识别AI 解读

This paper studies inference in models that are identified by moment restrictions. We show how instability of the moments can be used constructively to improve the identification of structural parameters that are stable over time. A leading example is macroeconomic models that are immune to the well‐known (Lucas (1976)) critique in the face of policy regime shifts. This insight is used to develop novel econometric methods that extend the widely used generalized method of…

检验矩不等式的实用两步法AI 解读

This paper considers the problem of testing a finite number of moment inequalities. We propose a two‐step approach. In the first step, a confidence region for the moments is constructed. In the second step, this set is used to provide information about which moments are “negative.” A Bonferonni‐type correction is used to account for the fact that, with some probability, the moments may not lie in the confidence region. It is shown that the test controls size uniformly over a…

利用市场层面数据识别差异化产品市场模型AI 解读

We present new identification results for nonparametric models of differentiated products markets, using only market level observables. We specify a nonparametric random utility discrete choice model of demand allowing rich preference heterogeneity, product/market unobservables, and endogenous prices. Our supply model posits nonparametric cost functions, allows latent cost shocks, and nests a range of standard oligopoly models. We consider identification of demand,…

level-0 行为能否跨博弈迁移？非中性框架下的 level-k 理论检验AI 解读

We test the portability of level-0 assumptions in level-k theory in an experimental investigation of behavior in Coordination, Discoordination, and Hide and Seek games with common, non-neutral frames. Assuming that level-0 behavior depends only on the frame, we derive hypotheses that are independent of prior assumptions about salience. Those hypotheses are not confirmed. Our findings contrast with previous research which has fitted parameterized level-k models to Hide and…