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极端事件的时空建模AI 解读

Summary Max-stable processes are the natural analogues of the generalized extreme value distribution when modelling extreme events in space and time. Under suitable conditions, these processes are asymptotically justified models for maxima of independent replications of random fields, and they are also suitable for the modelling of extreme measurements over high thresholds. The paper shows how a pairwise censored likelihood can be used for consistent estimation of the…

变量相关情形下高维均值的两样本检验AI 解读

Summary The paper considers in the high dimensional setting a canonical testing problem in multivariate analysis, namely testing the equality of two mean vectors. We introduce a new test statistic that is based on a linear transformation of the data by the precision matrix which incorporates the correlations between the variables. The limiting null distribution of the test statistic and the power of the test are analysed. It is shown that the test is particularly powerful…

函数型时间序列的平稳性检验AI 解读

Economic and financial data often take the form of a collection of curves observed consecutively over time. Examples include, intraday price curves, yield and term structure curves, and intraday volatility curves. Such curves can be viewed as a time series of functions. A fundamental issue that must be addressed, before an attempt is made to statistically model such data, is whether these curves, perhaps suitably transformed, form a stationary functional time series. This…

随机时变系数模型的统计推断AI 解读

Recently, there has been considerable work on stochastic time-varying coefficient models as vehicles for modelling structural change in the macroeconomy with a focus on the estimation of the unobserved paths of random coefficient processes. The dominant estimation methods, in this context, are based on various filters, such as the Kalman filter, that are applicable when the models are cast in state space representations. This paper introduces a new class of autoregressive…

多元旋转 ARCH 模型AI 解读

This paper introduces a new class of multivariate volatility models which is easy to estimate using covariance targeting, even with rich dynamics. We call them rotated ARCH (RARCH) models. The basic structure is to rotate the returns and then to fit them using a BEKK-type parameterization of the time-varying covariance whose long-run covariance is the identity matrix. This yields the rotated BEKK (RBEKK) model. The extension to DCC-type parameterizations is given,…

基于条件矩不等式的非参数推断AI 解读

This paper develops methods of inference for nonparametric and semiparametric parameters defined by conditional moment inequalities and/or equalities. The parameters need not be identified. Confidence sets and tests are introduced. The correct uniform asymptotic size of these procedures is established. The false coverage probabilities and power of the CS’s and tests are established for fixed alternatives and some local alternatives. Finite-sample simulation results are given…

存在平滑趋势时周期序列的非参数估计AI 解读

We investigate a nonparametric regression model including a periodic component, a smooth trend function, and a stochastic error term. We propose a procedure to estimate the unknown period and the function values of the periodic component as well as the nonparametric trend function. The theoretical part of the paper establishes the asymptotic properties of our estimators. In particular, we show that our estimator of the period is consistent. In addition, we derive the…

联合 L1 与凹惩罚正则化的渐近性质AI 解读

Two important goals of high-dimensional modelling are prediction and variable selection. In this article, we consider regularization with combined L1 and concave penalties, and study the sampling properties of the global optimum of the suggested method in ultrahigh-dimensional settings. The L1 penalty provides the minimum regularization needed for removing noise variables in order to achieve oracle prediction risk, while a concave penalty imposes additional regularization to…

基于多元符号的高维球形性检验AI 解读

This article concerns tests for sphericity in cases where the data dimension is larger than the sample size. The existing multivariate sign-based procedure (Hallin & Paindaveine, 2006) for sphericity is not robust with respect to high dimensionality, producing tests with Type I error rates that are much larger than the nominal levels. This is mainly due to bias from estimating the location parameter. We develop a correction that makes the existing test statistic robust with…

等误差方差高斯结构方程模型的可识别性AI 解读

We consider structural equation models in which variables can be written as a function of their parents and noise terms, which are assumed to be jointly independent. Corresponding to each structural equation model is a directed acyclic graph describing the relationships between the variables. In Gaussian structural equation models with linear functions, the graph can be identified from the joint distribution only up to Markov equivalence classes, assuming faithfulness. In…

SUMMARY crs is a library for R written by Jeffrey S. Racine (Maintainer) and Zhenghua Nie. This add‐on package provides a collection of functions for spline‐based nonparametric estimation of regression functions with both continuous and categorical regressors. Currently, the crs package integrates data‐driven methods for selecting the spline degree, the number of knots and the necessary bandwidths for nonparametric conditional mean, IV and quantile regression. A function for…

计量经济模型中有限混合分布的部分识别AI 解读

We consider partial identification of finite mixture models in the presence of an observable source of variation in the mixture weights that leaves component distributions unchanged, as is the case in large classes of econometric models. We first show that when the number J of component distributions is known a priori, the family of mixture models compatible with the data is a subset of a J(J−1)-dimensional space. When the outcome variable is continuous, this subset is…

收入—闲暇偏好的识别与所得税政策评估AI 解读

The merits of alternative income tax policies depend on the population distribution of preferences for income and leisure. Standard theory, which supposes that persons want more income and more leisure, does not predict how they resolve the tension between these desires. Empirical studies of labor supply have imposed strong preference assumptions that lack foundation. This paper examines anew the problem of inference on income–leisure preferences and considers the…

村庄经济中的异质性与风险分担AI 解读

We show how to use panel data on household consumption to directly estimate households' risk preferences. Specifically, we measure heterogeneity in risk aversion among households in Thai villages using a full risk-sharing model, which we then test allowing for this heterogeneity. There is substantial, statistically significant heterogeneity in estimated risk preferences. Full insurance cannot be rejected. As the risk-sharing as-if-complete-markets theory might predict,…

通过趋势滤波进行自适应分段多项式估计AI 解读

We study trend filtering, a recently proposed tool of Kim et al. [SIAM Rev. 51 (2009) 339–360] for nonparametric regression. The trend filtering estimate is defined as the minimizer of a penalized least squares criterion, in which the penalty term sums the absolute $k$th order discrete derivatives over the input points. Perhaps not surprisingly, trend filtering estimates appear to have the structure of $k$th degree spline functions, with adaptively chosen knot points (we say…

高维信号检测：多尖峰情形AI 解读

This paper applies Le Cam’s asymptotic theory of statistical experiments to the signal detection problem in high dimension. We consider the problem of testing the null hypothesis of sphericity of a high-dimensional covariance matrix against an alternative of (unspecified) multiple symmetry-breaking directions (multispiked alternatives). Simple analytical expressions for the Gaussian asymptotic power envelope and the asymptotic powers of previously proposed tests are derived.…

自适应稳健变量选择AI 解读

Heavy-tailed high-dimensional data are commonly encountered in various scientific fields and pose great challenges to modern statistical analysis. A natural procedure to address this problem is to use penalized quantile regression with weighted $L_1$-penalty, called weighted robust Lasso (WR-Lasso), in which weights are introduced to ameliorate the bias problem induced by the $L_1$-penalty. In the ultra-high dimensional setting, where the dimensionality can grow…

基于稳健低秩数据矩阵近似的统计推断AI 解读

The singular value decomposition is widely used to approximate data matrices with lower rank matrices. Feng and He [Ann. Appl. Stat. 3 (2009) 1634–1654] developed tests on dimensionality of the mean structure of a data matrix based on the singular value decomposition. However, the first singular values and vectors can be driven by a small number of outlying measurements. In this paper, we consider a robust alternative that moderates the effect of outliers in low-rank…

In the asymptotic theory of quantum hypothesis testing, the minimal error probability of the first kind jumps sharply from zero to one when the error exponent of the second kind passes by the point of the relative entropy of the two states in an increasing way. This is well known as the direct part and strong converse of quantum Stein’s lemma. Here we look into the behavior of this sudden change and have make it clear how the error of first kind grows smoothly according to a…

扭曲粒子滤波器AI 解读

We investigate sampling laws for particle algorithms and the influence of these laws on the efficiency of particle approximations of marginal likelihoods in hidden Markov models. Among a broad class of candidates we characterize the essentially unique family of particle system transition kernels which is optimal with respect to an asymptotic-in-time variance growth rate criterion. The sampling structure of the algorithm defined by these optimal transitions turns out to be…

具有交互效应的面板数据模型：理论与方法AI 解读

This paper considers the maximum likelihood estimation of panel data models with interactive effects. Motivated by applications in economics and other social sciences, a notable feature of the model is that the explanatory variables are correlated with the unobserved effects. The usual within-group estimator is inconsistent. Existing methods for consistent estimation are either designed for panel data with short time periods or are less efficient. The maximum likelihood…

非平稳时间序列加权V统计量的推断及应用AI 解读

We investigate the behavior of Fourier transforms for a wide class of nonstationary nonlinear processes. Asymptotic central and noncentral limit theorems are established for a class of nondegenerate and degenerate weighted $V$-statistics through the angle of Fourier analysis. The established theory for $V$-statistics provides a unified treatment for many important time and spectral domain problems in the analysis of nonstationary time series, ranging from nonparametric…

Random fields play a central role in the analysis of spatially correlated data and, as a result, have a significant impact on a broad array of scientific applications. This paper studies the cepstral random field model, providing recursive formulas that connect the spatial cepstral coefficients to an equivalent moving-average random field, which facilitates easy computation of the autocovariance matrix. We also provide a comprehensive treatment of the asymptotic theory for…

非平衡协整中的长期参数估计AI 解读

This paper analyses the asymptotic properties of nonlinear least squares estimators of the long run parameters in a bivariate unbalanced cointegration framework. Unbalanced cointegration refers to the situation where the integration orders of the observables are different, but their corresponding balanced versions (with equal integration orders after filtering) are cointegrated in the usual sense. Within this setting, the long run linkage between the observables is driven by…