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线性工具变量回归中更有功效的子向量 Anderson–Rubin 检验AI 解读

We study subvector inference in the linear instrumental variables model assuming homoskedasticity but allowing for weak instruments. The subvector Anderson and Rubin (1949) test that uses chi square critical values with degrees of freedom reduced by the number of parameters not under test, proposed by Guggenberger, Kleibergen, Mavroeidis, and Chen (2012), controls size but is generally conservative. We propose a conditional subvector Anderson and Rubin test that uses…

大横截面中的跳跃因子模型AI 解读

We develop tests for deciding whether a large cross‐section of asset prices obey an exact factor structure at the times of factor jumps. Such jump dependence is implied by standard linear factor models. Our inference is based on a panel of asset returns with asymptotically increasing cross‐sectional dimension and sampling frequency, and essentially no restriction on the relative magnitude of these two dimensions of the panel. The test is formed from the high‐frequency…

结构脉冲响应函数的贝叶斯推断AI 解读

I propose to estimate structural impulse responses from macroeconomic time series by doing Bayesian inference on the Structural Vector Moving Average representation of the data. This approach has two advantages over Structural Vector Autoregressions. First, it imposes prior information directly on the impulse responses in a flexible and transparent manner. Second, it can handle noninvertible impulse response functions, which are often encountered in applications. Rapid…

局部误设下动态离散选择问题的推断AI 解读

Single‐agent dynamic discrete choice models are typically estimated using heavily parametrized econometric frameworks, making them susceptible to model misspecification. This paper investigates how misspecification affects the results of inference in these models. Specifically, we consider a local misspecification framework in which specification errors are assumed to vanish at an arbitrary and unknown rate with the sample size. Relative to global misspecification, the local…

基于函数型瓮模型的非参数协变量调整响应自适应设计AI 解读

In this paper, we propose a general class of covariate-adjusted response-adaptive (CARA) designs based on a new functional urn model. We prove strong consistency concerning the functional urn proportion and the proportion of subjects assigned to the treatment groups, in the whole study and for each covariate profile, allowing the distribution of the responses conditioned on covariates to be estimated nonparametrically. In addition, we establish joint central limit theorems…

极端分位数处理效应AI 解读

This paper establishes an asymptotic theory and inference method for quantile treatment effect estimators when the quantile index is close to or equal to zero. Such quantile treatment effects are of interest in many applications, such as the effect of maternal smoking on an infant’s adverse birth outcomes. When the quantile index is close to zero, the sparsity of data jeopardizes conventional asymptotic theory and bootstrap inference. When the quantile index is zero, there…

纯态系综与量子高斯白噪声的局部渐近等价性AI 解读

Quantum technology is increasingly relying on specialised statistical inference methods for analysing quantum measurement data. This motivates the development of “quantum statistics”, a field that is shaping up at the overlap of quantum physics and “classical” statistics. One of the less investigated topics to date is that of statistical inference for infinite dimensional quantum systems, which can be seen as quantum counterpart of nonparametric statistics. In this paper, we…

逆问题中的多尺度扫描AI 解读

In this paper, we propose a multiscale scanning method to determine active components of a quantity $f$ w.r.t. a dictionary $\mathcal{U}$ from observations $Y$ in an inverse regression model $Y=Tf+\xi$ with linear operator $T$ and general random error $\xi$. To this end, we provide uniform confidence statements for the coefficients $\langle\varphi,f\rangle$, $\varphi\in\mathcal{U}$, under the assumption that $(T^{*})^{-1}(\mathcal{U})$ is of wavelet-type. Based on this, we…

函数型时间序列的筛自助法AI 解读

A bootstrap procedure for functional time series is proposed which exploits a general vector autoregressive representation of the time series of Fourier coefficients appearing in the Karhunen–Loève expansion of the functional process. A double sieve-type bootstrap method is developed, which avoids the estimation of process operators and generates functional pseudo-time series that appropriately mimics the dependence structure of the functional time series at hand. The method…

稳健低秩矩阵估计AI 解读

Many results have been proved for various nuclear norm penalized estimators of the uniform sampling matrix completion problem. However, most of these estimators are not robust: in most of the cases the quadratic loss function and its modifications are used. We consider robust nuclear norm penalized estimators using two well-known robust loss functions: the absolute value loss and the Huber loss. Under several conditions on the sparsity of the problem (i.e., the rank of the…

ROCKET：利用肯德尔相关系数为变换椭圆图模型构造稳健置信区间AI 解读

Understanding complex relationships between random variables is of fundamental importance in high-dimensional statistics, with numerous applications in biological and social sciences. Undirected graphical models are often used to represent dependencies between random variables, where an edge between two random variables is drawn if they are conditionally dependent given all the other measured variables. A large body of literature exists on methods that estimate the structure…

多类别分类、信息、散度与替代风险AI 解读

We provide a unifying view of statistical information measures, multiway Bayesian hypothesis testing, loss functions for multiclass classification problems and multidistribution $f$-divergences, elaborating equivalence results between all of these objects, and extending existing results for binary outcome spaces to more general ones. We consider a generalization of $f$-divergences to multiple distributions, and we provide a constructive equivalence between divergences,…

流形设定下的全局思考与局部拟合：局部线性嵌入的渐近分析AI 解读

Since its introduction in 2000, Locally Linear Embedding (LLE) has been widely applied in data science. We provide an asymptotical analysis of LLE under the manifold setup. We show that for a general manifold, asymptotically we may not obtain the Laplace–Beltrami operator, and the result may depend on nonuniform sampling unless a correct regularization is chosen. We also derive the corresponding kernel function, which indicates that LLE is not a Markov process. A comparison…

重新审视 ρ 估计量：一般理论与应用AI 解读

Following Baraud, Birgé and Sart [Invent. Math. 207 (2017) 425–517], we pursue our attempt to design a robust universal estimator of the joint distribution of $n$ independent (but not necessarily i.i.d.) observations for an Hellinger-type loss. Given such observations with an unknown joint distribution $\mathbf{P}$ and a dominated model $\mathscr{Q}$ for $\mathbf{P}$, we build an estimator $\widehat{\mathbf{P}}$ based on $\mathscr{Q}$ (a $\rho$-estimator) and measure its…

Z 估计框架下多函数参数的正则化后一致有效置信区域AI 解读

In this paper, we develop procedures to construct simultaneous confidence bands for ${\tilde{p}}$ potentially infinite-dimensional parameters after model selection for general moment condition models where ${\tilde{p}}$ is potentially much larger than the sample size of available data, $n$. This allows us to cover settings with functional response data where each of the ${\tilde{p}}$ parameters is a function. The procedure is based on the construction of score functions that…

黎曼流形与球面上函数型数据的主成分分析AI 解读

Functional data analysis on nonlinear manifolds has drawn recent interest. Sphere-valued functional data, which are encountered, for example, as movement trajectories on the surface of the earth are an important special case. We consider an intrinsic principal component analysis for smooth Riemannian manifold-valued functional data and study its asymptotic properties. Riemannian functional principal component analysis (RFPCA) is carried out by first mapping the…

多层张量分解及其在推荐系统中的应用AI 解读

Recommender systems have been widely adopted by electronic commerce and entertainment industries for individualized prediction and recommendation, which benefit consumers and improve business intelligence. In this article, we propose an innovative method, namely the recommendation engine of multilayers (REM), for tensor recommender systems. The proposed method utilizes the structure of a tensor response to integrate information from multiple modes, and creates an additional…

散布、精度与形状矩阵的半空间深度AI 解读

We propose halfspace depth concepts for scatter, concentration and shape matrices. For scatter matrices, our concept is similar to those from Chen, Gao and Ren [Robust covariance and scatter matrix estimation under Huber’s contamination model (2018)] and Zhang [J. Multivariate Anal. 82 (2002) 134–165]. Rather than focusing, as in these earlier works, on deepest scatter matrices, we thoroughly investigate the properties of the proposed depth and of the corresponding depth…

统计稀疏性AI 解读

The main contribution of this paper is a mathematical definition of statistical sparsity, which is expressed as a limiting property of a sequence of probability distributions. The limit is characterized by an exceedance measure |$H$| and a rate parameter |$\rho > 0$|⁠, both of which are unrelated to sample size. The definition encompasses all sparsity models that have been suggested in the signal-detection literature. Sparsity implies that |$\rho$| is small, and a sparse…

累积风险估计的尺度变换AI 解读

Time-to-event outcomes are often evaluated on the hazard scale, but interpreting hazards may be difficult. Recently in the causal inference literature concerns have been raised that hazards actually have a built-in selection bias that prevents simple causal interpretations. This is a problem even in randomized controlled trials, where hazard ratios have become a standard measure of treatment effects. Modelling on the hazard scale is nevertheless convenient, for example to…

异方差误差下惩罚分位数回归的野生残差自助推断AI 解读

We consider a heteroscedastic regression model in which some of the regression coefficients are zero but it is not known which ones. Penalized quantile regression is a useful approach for analysing such data. By allowing different covariates to be relevant for modelling conditional quantile functions at different quantile levels, it provides a more complete picture of the conditional distribution of a response variable than mean regression. Existing work on penalized…

利用未观测混杂因素的代理变量识别因果效应AI 解读

We consider a causal effect that is confounded by an unobserved variable, but with observed proxy variables of the confounder. We show that, with at least two independent proxy variables satisfying a certain rank condition, the causal effect is nonparametrically identified, even if the measurement error mechanism, i.e., the conditional distribution of the proxies given the confounder, may not be identified. Our result generalizes the identification strategy of Kuroki & Pearl…

配对实验中平均处理效应的回归辅助推断AI 解读

In paired randomized experiments individuals in a given matched pair may differ on prognostically important covariates despite the best efforts of practitioners. We examine the use of regression adjustment as a way to correct for persistent covariate imbalances after randomization, and present two regression assisted estimators for the sample average treatment effect in paired experiments. Using the potential outcomes framework, we prove that these estimators are consistent…

通过正则化方法的高阶分析克服相变分析的局限AI 解读

We study the problem of estimating a sparse vector $\beta\in\mathbb{R}^{p}$ from the response variables $y=X\beta+w$, where $w\sim N(0,\sigma_{w}^{2}I_{n\times n})$, under the following high-dimensional asymptotic regime: given a fixed number $\delta$, $p\rightarrow\infty$, while $n/p\rightarrow\delta$. We consider the popular class of $\ell_{q}$-regularized least squares (LQLS), a.k.a. bridge estimators, given by the optimization problem \begin{equation*}\hat{\beta}(\lambda,q)\in\arg\min_{\beta}\frac{1}{2}\|y-X\beta\|_{2}^{2}+\lambda\|\beta\|_{q}^{q},\end{equation*}…