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密度与高维多项分布的假设检验：精确局部极小极大速率AI 解读

We consider the goodness-of-fit testing problem of distinguishing whether the data are drawn from a specified distribution, versus a composite alternative separated from the null in the total variation metric. In the discrete case, we consider goodness-of-fit testing when the null distribution has a possibly growing or unbounded number of categories. In the continuous case, we consider testing a Hölder density with exponent $0

非正态误差下变换线性回归的最大似然估计AI 解读

This paper discusses the transformed linear regression with non-normal error distributions, a problem that often occurs in many areas such as economics and social sciences as well as medical studies. The linear transformation model is an important tool in survival analysis partly due to its flexibility. In particular, it includes the Cox model and the proportional odds model as special cases when the error follows the extreme value distribution and the logistic distribution,…

贝叶斯 Probit 回归中 Albert–Chib 算法的收敛复杂度分析AI 解读

The use of MCMC algorithms in high dimensional Bayesian problems has become routine. This has spurred so-called convergence complexity analysis, the goal of which is to ascertain how the convergence rate of a Monte Carlo Markov chain scales with sample size, $n$, and/or number of covariates, $p$. This article provides a thorough convergence complexity analysis of Albert and Chib’s [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 88 (1993) 669–679] data augmentation algorithm for the Bayesian…

稀疏备择下的高维变点检测AI 解读

We consider the problem of detecting a change in mean in a sequence of high-dimensional Gaussian vectors. The change in mean may be occurring simultaneously in an unknown subset components. We propose a hypothesis test to detect the presence of a change-point and establish the detection boundary in different regimes under the assumption that the dimension tends to infinity and the length of the sequence grows with the dimension. A remarkable feature of the proposed test is…

回归不连续设计中分位数处理效应的稳健一致推断AI 解读

The practical importance of inference with robustness against large bandwidths for causal effects in regression discontinuity and kink designs is widely recognized. Existing robust methods cover many cases, but do not handle uniform inference for CDF and quantile processes in fuzzy designs. In this light, this paper extends the literature by developing a unified framework of inference with robustness against large bandwidths that applies to uniform inference for quantile…

双重差分平均处理效应推断：固定 b 方法AI 解读

This paper provides an analysis of the standard errors proposed by Driscoll and Kraay (1998) (DK) in linear Difference-in-Differences (DD) models with fixed effects and individual-specific time trends. The analysis is accomplished within the fixed-b asymptotic framework developed by Kiefer and Vogelsang (2005) for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) covariance matrix estimator based tests. For both the fixed-N, large-T, and large-N, large-T cases, it is…

使用高频数据检验因子数量的秩检验AI 解读

In the literature, consistency of the estimates of the number of factors for large-dimensional factor models had been extensively studied recently. But the second-order property of the estimator has long been unsolved due to lack of limiting distribution of the estimators. In this paper, we propose a rank test of the number of factors using large panel high-frequency data contaminated with microstructure noise. The rank test is realized by forming a fixed number of…

第一价格拍卖中基于 GPV 估计量的推断AI 解读

We consider inference on the probability density of valuations in the first-price sealed-bid auctions model within the independent private value paradigm. We show the asymptotic normality of the two-step nonparametric estimator of Guerre et al. (2000) (GPV), and propose an easily implementable and consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance. We prove the validity of the pointwise percentile bootstrap confidence intervals based on the GPV estimator. Lastly, we use the…

使用排序选择数据半参数估计随机效用模型AI 解读

We propose semiparametric methods for estimating random utility models using rank-ordered choice data. Our primary method is the generalized maximum score (GMS) estimator. With partially rank-ordered data, the GMS estimator allows for arbitrary forms of interpersonal heteroskedasticity. With fully rank-ordered data, the GMS estimator becomes considerably more flexible, allowing for random coefficients and alternative-specific heteroskedasticity and correlations. The GMS…

收入区间数据下离散选择的应用福利分析AI 解读

This paper concerns empirical measurement of Hicksian consumer welfare under interval-reported income. Bhattacharya (2015, 2018a) has shown that for discrete choice, welfare distributions resulting from a hypothetical price-change can be expressed as closed-form transformations of choice probabilities. However, when income is interval-reported, as is the case in many surveys, the choice probabilities, and hence welfare distributions are not point-identified. We derive bounds…

组合 p 值检验协整回归中的多重结构突变AI 解读

We propose a multiple hypothesis testing approach to assess structural stability in cointegrating regressions. Underlying tests are constructed via a Vector Error Correction Model and generalize the reduced rank regression procedures of Hansen (2003). We generalize the likelihood ratio test proposed in Hansen (2003) to accommodate unknown break dates through the specification of several scenarios regarding the number and the location of the breaks. We define a combined…

部分识别光滑凸模型的贝叶斯推断AI 解读

This paper proposes novel Bayesian procedures for partially identified models when the identified set is convex with a smooth boundary, whose support function is locally smooth with respect to the data distribution. Using the posterior of the identified set, we construct Bayesian credible sets for the identified set, the partially identified parameter and their scalar transformations. These constructions, based on the support function, benefit from several computationally…

预期短缺与风险价值的动态半参数模型AI 解读

Expected Shortfall (ES) is the average return on a risky asset conditional on the return being below some quantile of its distribution, namely its Value-at-Risk (VaR). The Basel III Accord, which will be implemented in the years leading up to 2019, places new attention on ES, but unlike VaR, there is little existing work on modeling ES. We use recent results from statistical decision theory to overcome the problem of “elicitability” for ES by jointly modeling ES and VaR, and…

双重自回归模型的严格平稳性检验与 GLAD 估计AI 解读

In this article we develop a tractable procedure for testing strict stationarity in a double autoregressive model and formulate the problem as testing if the top Lyapunov exponent is negative. Without strict stationarity assumption, we construct a consistent estimator of the associated top Lyapunov exponent and employ a random weighting approach for its variance estimation, which in turn are used in a t-type test. We also propose a GLAD estimation for parameters of interest,…

以个股检验资产定价模型：处理风险溢价估计中的变量测量误差偏差AI 解读

To attenuate an inherent errors-in-variables bias, portfolios are widely employed to test asset pricing models; but portfolios might mask relevant risk- or return-related features of individual stocks. We propose an instrumental variables approach that allows the use of individual stocks as test assets, yet delivers consistent estimates of ex post risk premiums. This estimator also yields well-specified tests in small samples. The market risk premium under the capital asset…

计量经济模型中回归单调性的检验AI 解读

Monotonicity is a key qualitative prediction of a wide array of economic models derived via robust comparative statics. It is therefore important to design effective and practical econometric methods for testing this prediction in empirical analysis. This article develops a general nonparametric framework for testing monotonicity of a regression function. Using this framework, a broad class of new tests is introduced, which gives an empirical researcher a lot of flexibility…

线性回归模型平均后的推断AI 解读

This article considers the problem of inference for nested least squares averaging estimators. We study the asymptotic behavior of the Mallows model averaging estimator (MMA; Hansen, 2007) and the jackknife model averaging estimator (JMA; Hansen and Racine, 2012) under the standard asymptotics with fixed parameters setup. We find that both MMA and JMA estimators asymptotically assign zero weight to the under-fitted models, and MMA and JMA weights of just-fitted and…

尾部的故事：高维尾部相依性AI 解读

Summary We propose a simple and flexible framework that allows for a comprehensive analysis of tail interdependence in high dimensions. We use co‐exceedances to capture the structure of the dependence in the tails and, relying on the concept of multi‐information, define the coefficient of tail interdependence. Within this framework, we develop statistical tests of (i) independence in the tails, (ii) goodness‐of‐fit of the tail interdependence structure of a hypothesized…

固定时间维度面板中的共同相关效应估计AI 解读

Summary The presence of unobserved heterogeneity and its likely detrimental effect on inference has recently motivated the use of factor‐augmented panel regression models. The workhorse of this literature is based on first estimating the unknown factors using the cross‐section averages of the observables, and then applying ordinary least squares conditional on the first‐step factor estimates. This is the common correlated effects (CCE) approach, the existing asymptotic…

美国各州住房价格的共同变动与非对称尾部依赖：非参数方法AI 解读

Summary We reexamine the methods used in estimating comovements among US regional home prices and find that there are insufficient moments to ensure a normal limit necessary for employing the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator. Hence we propose applying the self‐weighted quasi‐maximum exponential likelihood estimator and a bootstrap method to test and account for the asymmetry of comovements as well as different magnitudes across state pairs. Our results reveal interstate…

合并还是不合并：面板回归参数估计与预测的策略AI 解读

Summary This paper considers estimating the slope parameters and forecasting in potentially heterogeneous panel data regressions with a long time dimension. We propose a novel optimal pooling averaging estimator that makes an explicit trade‐off between efficiency gains from pooling and bias due to heterogeneity. By theoretically and numerically comparing various estimators, we find that a uniformly best estimator does not exist and that our new estimator is superior in…

时变因子载荷下的资产定价检验AI 解读

Summary This paper proposes an empirical asset pricing test based on the homogeneity of the factor risk premia across risky assets. Factor loadings are considered to be dynamic and estimated from data at higher frequencies. The factor risk premia are obtained as estimates from time series regressions applied to each risky asset. We propose Swamy‐type tests robust to the presence of generated regressors and dependence between the pricing errors to assess the homogeneity of…

混合效应模型的渐近分析：理论、应用与开放问题AI 解读

Large sample theory plays a critical role in the development and application of statistical methodology. Asymptotic Analysis of Mixed Effects Models, by Jiming Jiang, provides a comprehensive accou...

删失分位数回归的适配损失函数AI 解读

In this article, we study a novel approach for the estimation of quantiles when facing potential right censoring of the responses. Contrary to the existing literature on the subject, the adopted strategy of this article is to tackle censoring at the very level of the loss function usually employed for the computation of quantiles, the so-called “check” function. For interpretation purposes, a simple comparison with the latter reveals how censoring is accounted for in the…