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动态空间自回归模型的推断与变点检测AI 解读

We analyze a varying-coefficient spatial autoregressive model with spatial fixed effects. One salient feature of the model is the incorporation of multiple spatial weight matrices through their linear combinations with varying coefficients, which help solve the problem of choosing the most “correct” one for applied econometricians who often face the availability of multiple expert spatial weight matrices. We estimate and make inferences on the model coefficients and…

条件分位数处理效应估计的深度正交学习器AI 解读

In recent years, orthogonal statistical learning has been widely recognized for its ability to reduce sensitivity with respect to nuisance parameters to estimate the target parameter, making it an important tool in causal inference, particularly in the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). However, its application on conditional quantile treatment effect (CQTE), which offers a more comprehensive perspective on treatment effects than CATE, has not yet…

重新考察多预测期的一致优越预测能力检验AI 解读

This paper examines the joint-hypothesis-testing problem that arises when comparing two competing forecast methods across multiple horizons. We focus on the concept of uniform Superior Predictive Ability (uSPA) and investigate the asymptotic properties of the corresponding test statistic. Under standard regularity conditions, the asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis is derived, ensuring that the test maintains the correct size and exhibits consistency. Monte…

含内生性的时变线性变换面板模型中的偏效应AI 解读

This article develops a new estimator for an average partial effect in nonlinear panel models, where outcomes are time-varying monotonic transformations of latent variables that include fixed effects and endogenous regressors. The partial effect can be time-varying and the counterfactual shift is scale invariant—key advantages over the linear model. We exploit a conditional moment restriction and address the ill-posed nature of recovering the transformation functions using…

将预测能力推断扩展至机器学习方法AI 解读

The use of machine learning methods for predictive purposes has exponentially increased over the past two decades, but uncertainty quantification for predictive comparisons remains challenging and underdeveloped. This article addresses this gap by extending the classic inference theory for predictive ability in time series to modern machine learners, such as Lasso or Deep Learning. We investigate under which conditions such extensions are possible. For standard out-of-sample…

二元结果与线性交互AI 解读

We consider general models of linear interactions in binary outcomes. We first characterize the conditions under which these models are coherent and complete. Next, we show that models of linear interactions admit sound microfoundations under assumptions of incomplete information and independence. To help guide practitioners, we discuss key modeling choices and testable restrictions. We then consider a specification that is linear in parameters, and propose a simple…

一般未知因子下共同相关效应回归的横截面自助法AI 解读

The Common Correlated Effects (CCE) approach enjoys considerable popularity for estimating factor-augmented panel data models. A key benefit is that by orthogonalizing the data on the available cross-section averages, the unobserved components are eliminated from the data, regardless of their order(s) of integration. This obviates the need for such knowledge, and makes CCE particularly attractive for macroeconomic applications, where the set of unobservables might contain…

重尾时间序列的变点检验：缩尾 CUSUM 方法AI 解读

It is well-known that the detection of change-points in heavy-tailed time series is an open problem since the traditional tests may not have a power. This article introduces a winsorized cumulative sum (CUSUM) approach to solve this problem. We begin by investigating the winsorized CUSUM process and then use it to construct the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test and the Self-normalized (SN) test. Under the null hypothesis, it is shown that each weakly converges to the maximum of a…

稳健且可复现的网络探索AI 解读

We propose a novel methodology for discovering the presence of relationships realized as binary time series between variables in high dimension. To make it visually intuitive, we regard the existence of a relationship as an edge connection, and call a collection of such edges a network. Our objective is thus rephrased as uncovering the network by selecting relevant edges, referred to as the network exploration. Our methodology is based on multiple testing for the presence or…

非平稳尾部依赖时间序列的时变高分位数估计AI 解读

We consider the problem of time-varying high quantile estimation for a general class of nonstationary tail dependent time series. Unlike the conventional quantile analysis in which the quantile level is typically assumed to be fixed, the current high quantile setting requires the quantile level to grow with the sample size to capture the tail phenomenon. In addition, for nonstationary time series data, the underlying data generating mechanism is expected to change over time,…

时间序列长期方差估计中的尾部后着色AI 解读

Prewhitening is a common approach to deal with strong autocorrelation. In this article, we propose a new approach called tail postcoloring, motivated by it. It uses parametric models to project, or color back, the neglected tail autocovariances in nonparametric estimators onto the final estimator. This approach bridges the non-parametric variance estimator and the parametric coloring model through a scaling factor. It automatically switches between these two arms using a…

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双参数泊松–狄利克雷隐马尔可夫模型的准共轭精确推断AI 解读

We introduce a nonparametric model for inferring time-evolving, unobserved probability distributions from discrete-time data consisting of unlabelled partitions. The latent process is a two-parameter Poisson–Dirichlet diffusion, and observations arise via exchangeable sampling. Applications include social and genetic data where only aggregate clustering summaries are observed.To address the intractable likelihood, we develop a tractable inferential framework that avoids…

混合成员模型中混合概率与排序的统计推断AI 解读

Network data is prevalent in numerous big data applications, including economics and health networks, where understanding the latent structure of the network is of prime importance. In this paper, we model the network using the Degree-Corrected Mixed Membership (DCMM) model. In the DCMM model, for each node i, there exists a membership vector πi=(πi(1),πi(2),…,πi(K)), where πi(k) denotes the weight that node i puts in community k. We derive a novel finite-sample expansion…

稳健切片逆回归：高维重尾数据的最优估计AI 解读

Sliced inverse regression (SIR) is a flexible modeling tool that effectively reduces dimensions to reveal the complicated mechanism behind data. In recent years, SIR has been generalized to high dimensions in a variety of ways. However, all existing methods rely on the light-tailed assumption for predictors, which is frequently violated in real life. To tackle ubiquitous heavy-tailed data, we propose a novel robust SIR method, referred to as ROSE, that scales well with high…

面向政策制定者的处理效应同质性非参数检验AI 解读

Recent work has focused on nonparametric estimation of conditional treatment effects, but inference has remained relatively unexplored. We propose a class of nonparametric tests for both quantitative and qualitative treatment effect heterogeneity. The tests can incorporate a variety of structured assumptions on the conditional average treatment effect, allow for both continuous and discrete covariates, and do not require sample splitting to obtain a tractable asymptotic null…

有效无先验可能性统计推断的高效蒙特卡洛方法AI 解读

Inferential models (IMs) offer prior-free, Bayesian-like posterior degrees of belief designed for statistical inference, which feature a frequentist-like calibration property that ensures reliability of said inferences. The catch is that IMs’ degrees of belief are possibilistic rather than probabilistic and, since the familiar Monte Carlo methods approximate probabilistic quantities, there are significant computational challenges associated with putting this framework into…

通过选择后推断稳健发现微生物组成特征AI 解读

Identifying taxa associated with host phenotypes is crucial for understanding host-microbe interactions and their underlying molecular mechanisms. However, analyzing microbiome data presents unique challenges, as the observed abundances of taxa are high-dimensional, compositional, and subject to both sample-specific and taxon-specific biases. Many existing methods for differential abundance testing struggle to balance false discovery rate control with statistical power. In…

竞争风险的估计与预测：贝叶斯非参数方法AI 解读

Competing risks occur in survival analysis when multiple causes of death are present. They play a prominent role in several domains extending beyond biostatistics to encompass epidemiology, actuarial sciences, and reliability theory. This paper adopts a multi–state modeling framework to competing risks. We introduce a class of flexible nonparametric priors, defined through hierarchical completely random measures, to model the transition probabilities, and identify the…

时间维度较小时异质性面板分位数回归的 CCE 估计AI 解读

We consider a common correlated effects estimator for panel quantile regression models featuring heterogeneous slope coefficients and interactive fixed effects. Using convolution smoothing to facilitate the derivation of asymptotic properties, our method allows the number of time periods (T) to grow at a much slower rate than the number of cross-sectional units (N). We establish that the mean group estimator converges to a limiting normal distribution, which may have a…

对消费者搜索具有稳健性的离散选择模型估计方法AI 解读

We state conditions under which choice data suffice to identify preferences when consumers may not be fully informed about attributes of goods. Our approach can be used to test for full information, forecast how consumers will respond to information, and conduct welfare analysis when consumers are imperfectly informed. In a lab experiment, we successfully forecast the average response to new information when consumers engage in costly search. In data from Expedia, our method…

Cox 模型的半参数 Fiducial 推断AI 解读

Abstract R.A. Fisher introduced the fiducial distribution as a potential replacement for the Bayesian posterior distribution in the 1930s. During the past century, fiducial approaches have been explored in various parametric and nonparametric settings. However, to the best of our knowledge, no fiducial inference has been developed in the realm of semiparametric statistics. In this paper, we propose a novel fiducial approach for semiparametric models. In memory of Sir David…

时变内生随机系数面板模型的识别与估计AI 解读

This paper proposes a correlated random coefficient linear panel data model, where regressors can be correlated with time-varying and individual-specific random coefficients through both a fixed effect and a time-varying random shock. I develop a new panel data-based method to identify the average partial effect and the local average response function. The identification strategy employs a sufficient statistic to control for the fixed effect and a control variable for the…

经济与金融中的贝叶斯方法：统一综述与分类AI 解读

This special issue brings together 21 papers that reflect the expanding scope and methodological evolution of Bayesian econometrics. We introduce a new organizing taxonomy that distinguishes between Traditional Bayesian Approaches - rooted in conjugate priors, standard likelihood-based estimation, and established Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques - and Contemporary Bayesian Frontiers, characterized by nonparametric methods, variational inference, high-dimensional…

多解释变量异方差回归的 AICAI 解读

The original and corrected Akaike information criteria (AIC) have been routinely used for model selection for ages. The penalty terms in these criteria are tied to the classical normal linear regression, characterized by conditional homoskedasticity and a small number of regressors relative to the sample size. We derive, from the same principles, a general version that takes account of conditional heteroskedasticity and regressor numerosity. The new AICm penalty takes a form…