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大学中的学业与非学业投入：预期、偏好和约束的作用AI 解读

This paper estimates a discrete choice model of time allocation decisions made by university students. We consider investments in academic and non-academic activities, such as job placements or volunteering. Identification is achieved using data collected through a recent survey of UK university students on subjective expectations about the returns to these activities, and the enjoyment students derive from them. Unobserved heterogeneity in the choice set is addressed using…

无需估计非可忽略缺失机制的通用估计程序AI 解读

We consider the estimation problem in a regression setting where the outcome variable is subject to nonignorable missingness and identifiability is ensured by the shadow variable approach. We propose a versatile estimation procedure where modeling of missingness mechanism is completely bypassed. We show that our estimator is easy to implement and we derive the asymptotic theory of the proposed estimator. We also investigate some alternative estimators under different…

利用参数化决策分析实现快速、最优与目标导向预测AI 解读

Prediction is critical for decision-making under uncertainty and lends validity to statistical inference. With targeted prediction, the goal is to optimize predictions for specific decision tasks of interest, which we represent via functionals. Although classical decision analysis extracts predictions from a Bayesian model, these predictions are often difficult to interpret and slow to compute. Instead, we design a class of parameterized actions for Bayesian decision…

含协变量的双成分混合模型AI 解读

In this article, we study a generalization of the two-groups model in the presence of covariates—a problem that has recently received much attention in the statistical literature due to its applicability in multiple hypotheses testing problems. The model we consider allows for infinite dimensional parameters and offers flexibility in modeling the dependence of the response on the covariates. We discuss the identifiability issues arising in this model and systematically study…

叙事限制与代理变量AI 解读

We compare two approaches to using information about the signs of structural shocks at specific dates within a structural vector autoregression (SVAR): imposing "narrative restrictions" (NR) on the shock signs in an otherwise set-identified SVAR; and casting the information about the shock signs as a discrete-valued "narrative proxy" (NP) to point-identify the impulse responses. The NP is likely to be "weak" given that the sign of the shock is typically known in a small…

评 Giacomini、Kitagawa 与 Read 的《叙事限制与代理变量》AI 解读

In a series of recent studies, Raffaella Giacomini and Toru Kitagawa have developed an innovative methodological approach to estimating sign-identified structural VAR models that seeks to build a bridge between Bayesian and frequentist approaches in the literature. Their latest papers with Matthew Read contain thought-provoking new insights about modeling narrative restrictions in sign-identified structural VAR models. My discussion puts their contribution into the context…

对《叙事限制与代理变量》的讨论AI 解读

I am grateful for the chance to discuss this characteristically insightful paper by Giacomini, Kitagawa, and Read (hence-forth GKR). Since the seminal contribution of Antolín-Díaz and Rubio-Ramírez (2018), narrative restrictions have rapidly become one of the go-to tools for sharpening causal inference in SVAR analysis. Giacomini, Kitagawa, and Read (2021) con-tributed greatly to our understanding of the role of subjective prior beliefs and the appropriate form of the…

代理变量 SVAR 中渐近有效的自助法推断AI 解读

Proxy structural vector autoregressions identify structural shocks in vector autoregressions with external variables that are correlated with the structural shocks of interest but uncorrelated with all other structural shocks. We provide asymptotic theory for this identification approach under mild α-mixing conditions that cover a large class of uncorrelated, but possibly dependent innovation processes. We prove consistency of a residual-based moving block bootstrap (MBB)…

连续处理效应模型设定检验的统一框架AI 解读

We propose a general framework for the specification testing of continuous treatment effect models. We assume a general residual function, which includes the average and quantile treatment effect models as special cases. The null models are identified under the unconfoundedness condition and contain a nonparametric weighting function. We propose a test statistic for the null model in which the weighting function is estimated by solving an expanding set of moment equations.…

不施加均衡限制的博弈推断：餐厅营业时间竞争应用AI 解读

This article relaxes the Bayesian Nash equilibrium assumption in the estimation of discrete choice games with incomplete information. Instead of assuming unbiased/correct expectations, the model specifies a player’s belief about the behaviors of other players as an unrestricted unknown function. I then study the joint identification of belief and payoff functions in a game where players have different numbers of actions (e.g., 3 × 2 game). This asymmetry in action sets…

工具变量下局部平均处理效应的高维模型辅助推断AI 解读

Consider the problem of estimating the local average treatment effect with an instrument variable, where the instrument unconfoundedness holds after adjusting for a set of measured covariates. Several unknown functions of the covariates need to be estimated through regression models, such as instrument propensity score and treatment and outcome regression models. We develop a computationally tractable method in high-dimensional settings where the numbers of regression terms…

局部平均处理效应的高效协变量平衡AI 解读

This article develops an empirical balancing approach for the estimation of treatment effects under two-sided noncompliance using a binary instrumental variable. The method weighs both treatment and outcome information with inverse probabilities to impose exact finite sample balance across instrument level groups. It is free of functional form assumptions on the outcome or the treatment selection step. By tailoring the loss function for the instrument propensity scores, the…

高维混频工具变量回归AI 解读

This article introduces a high-dimensional linear IV regression for the data sampled at mixed frequencies. We show that the high-dimensional slope parameter of a high-frequency covariate can be identified and accurately estimated leveraging on a low-frequency instrumental variable. The distinguishing feature of the model is that it allows handing high-dimensional datasets without imposing the approximate sparsity restrictions. We propose a Tikhonov-regularized estimator and…

含记录特定不一致概率参数的快速贝叶斯记录链接AI 解读

Researchers are often interested in linking individuals between two datasets that lack a common unique identifier. Matching procedures often struggle to match records with common names, birthplaces, or other field values. Computational feasibility is also a challenge, particularly when linking large datasets. We develop a Bayesian method for automated probabilistic record linkage and show it recovers more than 50% more true matches, holding accuracy constant, than comparable…

对潜在非平稳性稳健的结构 VAR 工具变量估计AI 解读

This paper considers the estimation of dynamic causal effects using a proxy structural vector-autoregressive model with possibly nonstationary regressors. We provide general conditions under which the asymptotic normal approximation remains valid. In this case, the asymptotic variance depends on the persistence property of each series. We further provide a consistent asymptotic covariance matrix estimator that requires neither knowledge of the presistence properties of the…

因果面板数据模型的双重稳健识别AI 解读

Summary We study identification and estimation of causal effects in settings with panel data. Traditionally, researchers follow model-based identification strategies relying on assumptions governing the relation between the potential outcomes and the observed and unobserved confounders. We focus on a different, complementary approach to identification, where assumptions are made about the connection between the treatment assignment and the unobserved confounders. Such…

基于处理状态抽样设计下的处理效应估计与推断AI 解读

Summary Causal inference in a programme evaluation setting faces the problem of external validity when the treatment effect in the target population is different from the treatment effect identified from the population of which the sample is representative. This paper focuses on a situation where such discrepancy arises by a stratified sampling design based on the individual treatment status and other characteristics. In such settings, the design probability is known from…

Summary I develop algorithms to facilitate Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions that are set-identified with sign and zero restrictions by showing that the system of restrictions is equivalent to a system of sign restrictions in a lower-dimensional space. Consequently, algorithms applicable under sign restrictions can be extended to allow for zero restrictions. Specifically, I extend algorithms proposed in Amir-Ahmadi and Drautzburg (2021) to check whether…

众多弱工具变量下的统计推断AI 解读

Abstract We develop a concept of weak identification in linear instrumental variable models in which the number of instruments can grow at the same rate or slower than the sample size. We propose a jackknifed version of the classical weak identification-robust Anderson–Rubin (AR) test statistic. Large-sample inference based on the jackknifed AR is valid under heteroscedasticity and weak identification. The feasible version of this statistic uses a novel variance estimator.…

谱嵌入的统计解释：广义随机点积图AI 解读

Abstract Spectral embedding is a procedure which can be used to obtain vector representations of the nodes of a graph. This paper proposes a generalisation of the latent position network model known as the random dot product graph, to allow interpretation of those vector representations as latent position estimates. The generalisation is needed to model heterophilic connectivity (e.g. ‘opposites attract’) and to cope with negative eigenvalues more generally. We show that,…

主分层可忽略性下因果效应的多重稳健估计AI 解读

Abstract Causal inference concerns not only the average effect of the treatment on the outcome but also the underlying mechanism through an intermediate variable of interest. Principal stratification characterizes such a mechanism by targeting subgroup causal effects within principal strata, which are defined by the joint potential values of an intermediate variable. Due to the fundamental problem of causal inference, principal strata are inherently latent, rendering it…

仿射无套利收益率网络模型及欧债危机应用AI 解读

We develop a parsimonious class of affine arbitrage-free yield net models for consistent bond pricing across maturities and issuers of different risk levels. Containing a core curve and multiple peripheral curves, the yield net is spanned by three layers of factors: base factors spanning all curves, and common and individual spread factors. Under the arbitrage-free assumption, we prove a parsimonious solution to the risk-neutral process that guarantees joint identification…

具有有限混合结构的计数 Roy 模型AI 解读

Summary This paper develops the Finite Mixture Roy model for count variables and uses this semiparametric model to analyze the effect of supplemental Medigap private insurance on the demand for prescription drugs for the U.S. elderly unemployed Medicare population. The model is an extension of the Count Roy model, which produces unrealistic treatment effects when observed count patterns are consistent with finite mixtures. To estimate the numbers of components in the…

含双向固定效应的指数回归工具变量估计及引力方程应用AI 解读

Summary This paper introduces instrumental‐variable estimators for exponential‐regression models that feature two‐way fixed effects. These techniques allow us to develop a theory‐consistent approach to the estimation of cross‐sectional gravity equations that can accommodate the endogeneity of policy variables. We apply this approach to a dataset in which the policy decision of interest is the engagement in a free‐trade agreement. We explore ways to exploit the transitivity…