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用 SVAR 与高维动态因子模型验证 DSGE 模型AI 解读

A popular validation procedure for Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models consists in comparing the structural shocks and impulse-response functions obtained by estimation-calibration of the DSGE with those obtained in an Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVAR) identified by means of some of the DSGE restrictions. I show that this practice can be seriously misleading when the variables used in the SVAR contain measurement errors. If this is the case, for…

线性结构方程模型中的祖先回归AI 解读

Summary We present a new method for causal discovery in linear structural equation models. We propose a simple technique based on statistical testing in linear models that can distinguish between ancestors and non-ancestors of any given variable. Naturally, this approach can then be extended to estimating the causal order among all variables. We provide explicit error control for false causal discovery, at least asymptotically. This holds true even under Gaussianity, where…

近端中介分析AI 解读

Summary A common concern when trying to draw causal inferences from observational data is that the measured covariates are insufficiently rich to account for all sources of confounding. In practice, many of the covariates may only be proxies of the latent confounding mechanism. Recent work has shown that in certain settings where the standard no-unmeasured-confounding assumption fails, proxy variables can be leveraged to identify causal effects. Results currently exist for…

含无效工具变量的半参数有效G估计AI 解读

Summary The instrumental variable method is widely used in the health and social sciences for identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of potential unmeasured confounding. To improve efficiency, multiple instruments are routinely used, raising concerns about bias due to possible violation of the instrumental variable assumptions. To address such concerns, we introduce a new class of G-estimators that are guaranteed to remain consistent and…

点过程的工具变量方法：基于反卷积的广义 Wald 估计AI 解读

Summary Point processes are probabilistic tools for modelling event data. While there exists a fast-growing literature on the relationships between point processes, how such relationships connect to causal effects remains unexplored. In the presence of unmeasured confounders, parameters from point process models do not necessarily have causal interpretations. We propose an instrumental variable method for causal inference with point process treatment and outcome. We define…

线性条件矩不等式的统计推断AI 解读

Abstract We show that moment inequalities in a wide variety of economic applications have a particular linear conditional structure. We use this structure to construct uniformly valid confidence sets that remain computationally tractable even in settings with nuisance parameters. We first introduce least-favorable critical values which deliver non-conservative tests if all moments are binding. Next, we introduce a novel conditional inference approach which ensures a strong…

动态二元响应模型的识别AI 解读

We consider identification of parameters in dynamic binary response models with panel data under minimal assumptions. This model is prominent in empirical economics as it has been used to infer state dependence in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. The main results in our paper are characterizations of the identified set under weak assumptions. The results generalize the existing literature in several directions: (1) we do not require any restrictions on the support…

博弈中的稳定结果与信息：一个实证框架AI 解读

Empirically, many strategic settings are characterized by stable outcomes in which players’ decisions are publicly observed, yet no player takes the opportunity to deviate. To analyze such situations in the presence of incomplete information, we build an empirical framework by introducing a novel solution concept that we call Bayes stable equilibrium and computationally tractable approaches for estimation and inference. Our framework allows the researcher to be agnostic…

动态离散选择混合模型的识别AI 解读

This paper provides new identification results for finite mixtures of Markov processes. Our arguments yield identification from knowledge of the cross-sectional distribution of three (or more) effective time-series observations under simple conditions. We explain how our approach and results are different from those in previous work by Kasahara and Shimotsu (2009) and Hu and Shum (2012). Most notably, outside information, such as monotonicity restrictions that link…

基于时序与信息集假设的结构模型识别不足AI 解读

We revisit identification based on timing and information set assumptions in structural models, which have been used in the context of production functions, demand equations, and hedonic pricing models (e.g. Olley and Pakes, 1996, Blundell and Bond, 2000). First, we demonstrate a general under-identification problem using these assumptions in a simple version of the Blundell–Bond dynamic panel model. In particular, the basic moment conditions can yield multiple discrete…

随机实验中溢出效应的识别与估计AI 解读

I study identification, estimation and inference for spillover effects in experiments where units’ outcomes may depend on the treatment assignments of other units within a group. I show that the commonly-used reduced-form linear-in-means regression identifies a weighted sum of spillover effects with some negative weights, and that the difference in means between treated and controls identifies a combination of direct and spillover effects entering with different signs. I…

两个数据集的故事：网络样本推断的代表性与可推广性AI 解读

The last two decades have seen considerable progress in foundational aspects of statistical network analysis, but the path from theory to application is not straightforward.Two large, heterogeneous samples of small networks of within-household contacts in Belgium were collected using two different but complementary sampling designs: one smaller but with all contacts in each household observed, the other larger and more representative but recording contacts of only one person…

主题模型学习：可识别性与有限样本分析AI 解读

Topic models provide a useful text-mining tool for learning, extracting, and discovering latent structures in large text corpora. Although a plethora of methods have been proposed for topic modeling, lacking in the literature is a formal theoretical investigation of the statistical identifiability and accuracy of latent topic estimation. In this article, we propose a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of latent topics based on a specific integrated likelihood that is…

通过分位数平衡开展逆倾向加权的锐敏感性分析AI 解读

Inverse propensity weighting (IPW) is a popular method for estimating treatment effects from observational data. However, its correctness relies on the untestable (and frequently implausible) assumption that all confounders have been measured. This paper introduces a robust sensitivity analysis for IPW that estimates the range of treatment effects compatible with a given amount of unobserved confounding. The estimated range converges to the narrowest possible interval (under…

多视图数据中的自监督度量学习：下游任务视角AI 解读

Self-supervised metric learning has been a successful approach for learning a distance from an unlabeled dataset. The resulting distance is broadly useful for improving various distance-based downstream tasks, even when no information from downstream tasks is used in the metric learning stage. To gain insights into this approach, we develop a statistical framework to theoretically study how self-supervised metric learning can benefit downstream tasks in the context of…

答复AI 解读

1 Cattaneo, Ma, and Masatlioglu nicely illustrate the fact that albeit our model already allows for quite rich unobserved heterogeneity, the main insight behind our identification result can be lev...

情境依赖的异质偏好：对 Barseghyan 与 Molinari（2023）的评论AI 解读

–Barseghyan and Molinari give sufficient conditions for semi-nonparametric point identification of parameters of interest in a mixture model of decision-making under risk, allowing for unobserved heterogeneity in utility functions and limited consideration. A key assumption in the model is that the heterogeneity of risk preferences is unobservable but context-independent. In this comment, we build on their insights and present identification results in a setting where the…

风险偏好类型、有限考虑与福利AI 解读

We provide sufficient conditions for semi-nonparametric point identification of a mixture model of decision making under risk, when agents make choices in multiple lines of insurance coverage (contexts) by purchasing a bundle. As a first departure from the related literature, the model allows for two preference types. In the first one, agents behave according to standard expected utility theory with CARA Bernoulli utility function, with an agent-specific coefficient of…

多项 Probit 模型的快速变分贝叶斯方法AI 解读

The multinomial probit model is often used to analyze choice behavior. However, estimation with existing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is computationally costly, which limits its applicability to large choice datasets. This article proposes a variational Bayes method that is accurate and fast, even when a large number of choice alternatives and observations are considered. Variational methods usually require an analytical expression for the unnormalized posterior…

利用高峰度经济冲击识别结构向量自回归AI 解读

We revisit the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of the non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. It is shown that in the n-dimensional SVAR model, global and local identification of the contemporaneous impact matrix is achieved with as few as n2+n(n−1)/2 suitably selected moment conditions, when at least n – 1 of the structural errors are all leptokurtic (or platykurtic). We also relax the potentially problematic assumption of mutually…

教师与班级的配置及学生成绩AI 解读

We study the effects of counterfactual teacher-to-classroom assignments on average student achievement in U.S. elementary and middle schools. We use the Measures of Effective Teaching (MET) experiment to semiparametrically identify the average reallocation effects (AREs) of such assignments. Our identification strategy exploits the random assignment of teachers to classrooms in MET schools. To account for noncompliance of some students and teachers to the random assignment,…

结合符号限制与外部工具变量识别 SVAR 模型AI 解读

We discuss combining sign restrictions with information in external instruments (proxy variables) to identify structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. In one setting, we assume the availability of valid external instruments. Sign restrictions may then be used to identify further orthogonal shocks, or as an additional piece of information to pin down the shocks identified by the external instruments more precisely. In a second setting, we assume that proxy variables…

单位超球面上的空间分位数AI 解读

We propose a concept of quantiles for probability measures on the unit hypersphere Sd−1 of Rd. The innermost quantile is the Fréchet median, that is, the L1-analog of the Fréchet mean. The proposed quantiles μα,um are directional in nature: they are indexed by a scalar order α∈[0,1] and a unit vector u in the tangent space TmSd−1 to Sd−1 at m. To ensure computability in any dimension d, our quantiles are essentially obtained by considering the Euclidean (Chaudhuri (J. Amer.…

未观测协变量对协变量自适应随机实验的影响AI 解读

Covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR) is commonly implemented in clinical trials to balance observed covariates. Recent studies have demonstrated the advantages of CAR procedures in balancing covariates and improving the subsequent statistical analysis. Covariate balance is crucial, but it is not a panacea for the valid statistical inferences. If the response to a treatment interacts with some unobserved covariates, the conclusion drawn from a CAR experiment may be…