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面板数据中的未回应：对生命周期消费函数估计的影响AI 解读

Abstract If missing observations in a panel data set are not missing at random, many widely applied estimators may be inconsistent. In this paper we examine empirically several ways to reveal the nature and severity of the selectivity problem due to nonresponse, as well as a number of methods to estimate the resulting models. Using a life cycle consumption function and data from the Expenditure Index Panel from the Netherlands, we discuss simple procedures that can be used…

入学年龄对教育程度的影响：结合两样本矩的工具变量应用AI 解读

We present a model in which compulsory school attendance laws, which typically require school attendance until a specified birthday, induce a relationship between years of schooling and age at school entry. Variation in school starting age created by children's dates of birth provides a natural experiment for estimating the effect of age at school entry. Because no large data set contains information on both age at school entry and educational attainment, we use an…

关于多项 Probit 模型识别的一则札记AI 解读

Although formal conditions for identification in the multinational probit model are now clearly established, little is known about how various estimable multinational probit specifications perform in practice. This article shows that parameter identification in the multinational probit model is extremely tenuous in the absence of exclusion restrictions. This previously unnoticed fact is important because formal identification of multinational probit models does not require…

条件污染线性模型中线性目标的最优稳健估计AI 解读

P. J. Bickel's approach to and results on estimating the parameter vector $\beta$ of a conditionally contaminated linear regression model by asymptotically linear (AL) estimators $\hat\beta^\ast$ which have minimum trace of the asymptotic covariance matrix among all AL estimators with a given bound $b$ on their asymptotic bias (MT-AL estimators with bias bound $b$) is here extended to conditionally contaminated general linear models and in particular for estimating arbitrary…

用最小二乘识别向量线性过程的阶梯规范形式AI 解读

In this paper a method of identifying stationary and invertible vector autoregressive moving-average time series is proposed. The models are presumed to be represented in (reversed) echelon canonical form. Consideration is given to both parameter estimation and the determination of structural indices, the evaluations being based on the use of closed form least squares calculations. Consistency of the technique is shown and the operational characteristics of the procedure…

利用数学形态学与主曲线聚类识别卫星图像中的浮冰AI 解读

Identification of ice floes and their outlines in satellite images is important for understanding physical processes in the polar regions, for transportation in ice-covered seas, and for the design of offshore structures intended to survive in the presence of ice. At present this is done manually, a long and tedious process that precludes full use of the great volume of relevant images now available. We describe an accurate and almost fully automatic method for identifying…

二元阈值跨越与二元选择模型的非参数、分布无关估计AI 解读

In this paper, it is shown that it is possible to identify binary threshold crossing models and binary choice models without imposing any parametric structure either on the systematic function of observable exogenous variables or on the distribution of the random term. This identification result is employed to develop a fully nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator for both the function of observable exogenous variables and the distribution of the random term. The…

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含误差分量的联立方程估计札记AI 解读

Baltagi [3] derived 2SLS and 3SLS analogues for a simultaneous equation model with error components. These were denoted by EC2SLS and EC3SLS. More recently, Balestra and Varadharajan-Krishnakumar [1] derived alternative 2SLS and 3SLS analogues; these were denoted by G2SLS and G3SLS. This note explains the relationship between these estimators and shows that the set of instruments employed by Balestra and Varadharajan-Krishnakumar is a subset of those used in Baltagi. In…

截断回归模型的半参数非线性最小二乘估计AI 解读

This article provides a semiparametric method for the estimation of truncated regression models where the disturbances are independent of the regressors before truncation. This independence property provides useful information on model identification and estimation. Our estimate is shown to be -consistent and asymptotically normal. A consistent estimate of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimator is provided. Monte Carlo experiments are performed to investigate some…

普通最小二乘与工具变量回归中的扰动自相关结构检验AI 解读

Robert E. Cumby, John Huizinga, Testing the Autocorrelation Structure of Disturbances in Ordinary Least Squares and Instrumental Variables Regressions, Econometrica, Vol. 60, No. 1 (Jan., 1992), pp. 185-195

工具变量估计量的精确小样本分布AI 解读

The purpose of this note is to point out that the bimodality is a consequence of the special case considered by N-S. The exact finite sample distribution of the IV estimator has been derived in the economic literature earlier, but its tabulation or plotting involves some assumptions about the nuisance parameters. In this note we plot the densities of the exact finite sample distribution of the IV estimator for several parameter values and show that the bimodality feature…

永久与暂时成分的相对重要性：识别与若干理论界AI 解读

Much macroeconometric discussion has recently emphasized the economic significance of the size of the permanent component in GNP. Consequently, a large literature has developed that tries to estimate this magnitude--measured, essentially, as the spectral density of increments in GNP at frequency zero. This paper shows that, unless the permanent component is a random walk, this attention has been misplaced: in general, that quantity does not identify the magnitude of the…

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有限总体分布函数估计量的性质AI 解读

Two leading estimators of the finite population distribution function are studied. Their large-sample mean squared errors are compared, under a given model. Neither estimator is universally better; circumstances are identified where the model-based estimator would do poorly, despite employing the correct model.

潜在真实时间序列及其指标：一种替代方法AI 解读

de Leeuw and McKelvey proposed a method for using two imperfect indicators to predict the values of an unobserved series. In this article we suggest an alternative method that uses the multiple indicator approach to model the true time series and its indicators. We examine the identification status of the model, estimate the parameters by maximum likelihood, and use the Kalman filter to obtain predictions of the unobserved series. The method is applied to the U.S. gross…

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一个实证求职模型的精确似然函数AI 解读

The exact likelihood function for a prototypal job search model is analyzed. The optimality condition implied by the dynamic programming framework is fully imposed. Using the optimality condition allows identification of an offer arrival probability separately from an offer acceptance probability. The estimation problem is nonstandard. The geometry of the likelihood function in finite samples is considered, along with asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator.

利用面板数据估计与检验工会工资效应AI 解读

We present estimates of the union wage effect controlling for unmeasured individual effects, and subject the conventional fixed-effects model to specification tests. For PSID men the union wage effect is 5-8% after controlling for person effects, as opposed to 20% in cross-section. Omnibus tests based on an unrestricted reduced form and instrumental variables tests based on differencing are consistent with conventional models. Tests based on comparing those who enter and…

工具变量统计量检验嵌套与非嵌套假设的蒙特卡洛研究及有限样本性质AI 解读

Using Monte Carlo methodology, this paper investigates the effect of dynamics and simultaneity on the finite sample properties of instrumental variables statistics for testing nested and nonnested hypotheses. Simple numerical-analytical formulae (response surfaces) are obtained which closely approximate the statistics' unknown size and power functions for a dynamic simultaneous-equations model. The analysis illustrates the value and limitations of asymptotic theory in…

连续时间中的误差修正与长期均衡AI 解读

This paper deals with error correction models (ECM's) and cointegrated systems that are formulated in continuous time. Long-run equilibrium coefficients in the continuous system are always identified in the discrete time reduced form, so that there is no aliasing problem for these parameters. The long- run relationships are also preserved under quite general data filtering. Frequency domain procedures are outlined for estimation and inference. These methods are…

The goodness-of-fit statistic for fixed effects models is shown to simplify to the degrees of freedom times the R(superscript "2") from a regression of analysis of covariance residuals on right hand side variables. This result is applied to test models for union wage effects. Identification and estimation of the return to schooling in models with fixed effects is also discussed. Analysis of covariance estimates of the returns to schooling are precisely estimated and roughly…