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多重先验下的最优停止AI 解读

We develop a theory of optimal stopping under Knightian uncertainty. A suitable martingale theory for multiple priors is derived that extends the classical dynamic programming or Snell envelope approach to multiple priors. We relate the multiple prior theory to the classical setup via a minimax theorem. In a multiple prior version of the classical model of independent and identically distributed random variables, we discuss several examples from microeconomics, operation…

有效率群体行为的微观经济学：识别AI 解读

Consider a group consisting of S members facing a common budget constraint p'xi=1: any demand vector belonging to the budget set can be (privately or publicly) consumed by the members. Although the intragroup decision process is not known, it is assumed to generate Pareto-efficient outcomes; neither individual consumptions nor intragroup transfers are observable. The paper analyzes when, to what extent, and under which conditions it is possible to recover the underlying…

大量弱矩条件下的广义矩估计AI 解读

Using many moment conditions can improve efficiency but makes the usual generalized method of moments (GMM) inferences inaccurate. Two-step GMM is biased. Generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) has smaller bias, but the usual standard errors are too small in instrumental variable settings. In this paper we give a new variance estimator for GEL that addresses this problem. It is consistent under the usual asymptotics and, under many weak moment asymptotics, is larger than…

动态离散选择有限混合模型的非参数识别AI 解读

In dynamic discrete choice analysis, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity is an important issue, and finite mixture models provide flexible ways to account for it. This paper studies nonparametric identifiability of type probabilities and type-specific component distributions in finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices. We derive sufficient conditions for nonparametric identification for various finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices used in applied…

通过子空间投影实现基于相关性的函数型聚类AI 解读

A correlation-based functional clustering method is proposed for grouping curves with similar shapes. A correlation between two random functions defined through the functional inner product is used as a similarity measure. Curves with similar shapes are embedded in the cluster subspace spanned by a mean shape function and eigenfunctions of the covariance kernel. The cluster membership prediction for each curve attempts to maximize the functional correlation between the…

增加重复横截面中的价格变异AI 解读

Insufficient price variation seriously hampers many applications of consumer demand models. This paper examines the empirical performance of a potential remedy for this problem that was suggested by [Lewbel, A., 1989. Identification and estimation of equivalence scales under weak separability. Review of Economic Studies 56, 311-316], the construction of individual specific price indices for bundles of goods. These individual specific price indices allow for a population with…

利用恩格尔曲线估计集体家庭模型AI 解读

The structural consumer demand methods used to estimate the parameters of collective household models are typically either very restrictive and easy to implement or very general and difficult to estimate. In this paper, we provide a middle ground. We adapt the very general framework of [Browning, M., Chiappori, P.A., Lewbel, A., 2004. Estimating Consumption Economies of Scale, Adult Equivalence Scales, and Household Bargaining Power, Boston College Working Papers in…

年龄—时期—队列模型与扩展链梯模型的识别AI 解读

We consider the identification problem that arises in the age-period-cohort models as well as in the extended chain-ladder model. We propose a canonical parameterization based on the accelerations of the trends in the three factors. This parameterization is exactly identified and eases interpretation, estimation and forecasting. The canonical parameterization is applied to a class of index sets which have trapezoidal shapes, including various Lexis diagrams and the…

非平稳波动下的持续性变化检验AI 解读

In this paper we consider tests for the null of (trend-) stationarity against the alternative of a change in persistence at some (known or unknown) point in the observed sample, either from I(0) to I(1) behaviour or vice versa, of, inter alia, [Kim, J., 2000. Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series. Journal of Econometrics 95, 97-116]. We show that in circumstances where the innovation process displays non-stationary unconditional volatility of a very…

一类共同价值拍卖模型的非参数识别与估计AI 解读

Abstract Structural econometric studies on auctions have mainly focused on the independent private value paradigm. In this paper, we are interested in the ‘opposite’ case known as the pure common value model. More precisely, we restrict our attention to a class of common value models defined by three functions: the density of the true value of the auctioned good, a unique function that appears in the definition of the conditional densities of the signals, and the function…

从升价与密封投标拍卖估计风险厌恶：木材拍卖案例AI 解读

Abstract Estimating bidders' risk aversion in auctions is a challenging problem because of identification issues. This paper takes advantage of bidding data from two auction designs to identify nonparametrically the bidders' utility function within a private value framework. In particular, ascending auction data allow one to recover the latent distribution of private values, while first‐price sealed‐bid auction data allow one to recover the bidders' utility function. This…

工具变量线性方程中的 Bootstrap 推断AI 解读

We study several tests for the coefficient of the single right-hand-side endogenous variable in a linear equation estimated by instrumental variables. We show that writing all the test statistics--Student's t, Anderson--Rubin, the LM statistic of Kleibergen and Moreira (K), and likelihood ratio (LR)--as functions of six random quantities leads to a number of interesting results about the properties of the tests under weak-instrument asymptotics. We then propose several new…

弱工具变量回归中的有效双侧非相似不变检验AI 解读

As Nelson and Startz [Nelson, C.R., Startz, R., 1990a. The distribution of the instrumental variable estimator and its t ratio when the instrument is a poor one. Journal of Business 63, S125-S140; Nelson, C.R., Startz, R., 1990b. Some further results on the exact small sample properties of the instrumental variables estimator. Econometrica 58, 967-976] dramatically demonstrated, standard hypothesis tests and confidence intervals in instrumental variables regression are…

孟加拉国的早婚、初潮年龄与女性受教育程度AI 解读

Using data from rural Bangladesh, we explore the hypothesis that women attain less schooling as a result of social and financial pressure to marry young. We isolate the causal effect of marriage timing using age of menarche as an instrumental variable. Our results indicate that each additional year that marriage is delayed is associated with 0.22 additional year of schooling and 5.6 percent higher literacy. Delayed marriage is also associated with an increase in use of…

多工具变量下的估计AI 解读

Using many valid instrumental variables has the potential to improve efficiency but makes the usual inference procedures inaccurate. We give corrected standard errors, an extension of Bekker to nonnormal disturbances, that adjust for many instruments. We find that this adjustment is useful in empirical work, simulations, and in the asymptotic theory. Use of the corrected standard errors in t-ratios leads to an asymptotic approximation order that is the same when the number…

仅有汇总信息时聚类二元与计数数据的非参数推断AI 解读

Summary Data in the form of pairs (X,Y), where the response Y is a count, arise in many applications, including problems involving stratified or two-stage sampling. Such data are often analysed by using random-effects models, where the distribution of Y, conditional on X and on an unobserved random parameter Θ, is taken to be either binomial or Poisson, and the distribution of Θ is connected through a link function to a random effect. The latter is sometimes supposed to be…

满足有限个矩不等式的部分识别参数置信集AI 解读

This paper proposes a computationally simple way to construct confidence sets for a parameter of interest in models comprised of moment inequalities. Building on results from the literature on multivariate one-sided tests, I show how to test the hypothesis that any particular parameter value is logically consistent with the maintained moment inequalities. The associated test statistic has an asymptotic chi-bar-square distribution, and can be inverted to construct an…

多单位拍卖的部分识别与可检验限制AI 解读

Bidders' values in discriminatory and uniform-price auctions are not necessarily point-identified under the assumptions of equilibrium bidding and independent private values, but meaningful policy analysis can proceed from bounds on bidder values. This paper provides upper and lower bounds on the set of values that can rationalize a given distribution of bids, under the additional (and standard) assumption of non-increasing marginal values. Novel testable implications of the…

同时估计异质性的贝叶斯捕获再捕获种群模型AI 解读

We develop a Bayesian capture-recapture model that provides estimates of abundance as well as time-varying and heterogeneous survival and capture probability distributions. The model uses a state-space approach by incorporating an underlying population model and an observation model, and here is applied to photo-identification data to estimate trends in the abundance and survival of a population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in northeast Scotland. Novel…

使用对数线性模型评估调查微观数据的再识别风险AI 解读

This article considers the assessment of the risk of identification of respondents in survey microdata, in the context of applications at the United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS). The threat comes from the matching of categorical “key“ variables between microdata records and external data sources and from the use of log-linear models to facilitate matching. While the potential use of such statistical models is well established in the literature, little…

战争与工资AI 解读

An instrument manipulates a treatment that it does not entirely control, but the instrument affects the outcome only indirectly through its manipulation of the treatment. The idealized prototype is the randomized encouragement design, in which subjects are randomly assigned to receive either encouragement to accept the treatment or no such encouragement, but not all subjects comply by doing what they are encouraged to do, and the situation is such that only the treatment…

协变量测量误差下的分位数回归AI 解读

This paper establishes that the availability of instrumental variables enables the identification and the consistent estimation of nonparametric quantile regression models in the presence of measurement error in the regressors. The proposed estimator takes the form of a nonlinear functional of derivatives of conditional expectations and is shown to provide estimated quantile functions that are uniformly consistent over a compact set.

新凯恩斯主义菲利普斯曲线的识别AI 解读

Abstract Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. The hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) describes how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real aggregate demand drive the current inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of the NKPC under Generalized Method of Moments and traces this syndrome to a lack of higher‐order dynamics in exogenous variables. We employ analytic…

一类部分识别模型的渐近性质AI 解读

We propose inference procedures for partially identified population features for which the population identification region can be written as a transformation of the Aumann expectation of a properly defined set valued random variable (SVRV). An SVRV is a mapping that associates a set (rather than a real number) with each element of the sample space. Examples of population features in this class include interval-identified scalar parameters, best linear predictors with…