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含协变量的有向网络模型中的统计推断AI 解读

Ting Yana http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9830-6646, Binyan Jiangb, Stephen E. Fienbergc* & Chenlei Lengd*a Department of Statistics, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, Chinab Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Chinac Department of Statistics, Heinz College, Machine Learning Department, Cylab, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PAd Department of Statistics, University of Warwick and Alan Turing Institute, Coventry, UKCONTACT…

图引导的协方差矩阵带状估计AI 解读

Regularization has become a primary tool for developing reliable estimators of the covariance matrix in high-dimensional settings. To curb the curse of dimensionality, numerous methods assume that the population covariance (or inverse covariance) matrix is sparse, while making no particular structural assumptions on the desired pattern of sparsity. A highly-related, yet complementary, literature studies the specific setting in which the measured variables have a known…

无重复矩阵型数据的均值与协方差联合估计AI 解读

Michael Hornsteina*, Roger Fana, Kerby Sheddena & Shuheng Zhouaba Department of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MIb Department of Statistics, University of California, Riverside, CACONTACT Michael Hornstein mdhorn@umich.edu Department of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109.Color versions of one or more of the figures in the article can be found online at www.tandfonline.com/r/JASA.Supplementary materials for this article are available…

平滑变化均值趋势下的方差变点检测及肝脏获取应用AI 解读

Literature on change point analysis mostly requires a sudden change in the data distribution, either in a few parameters or the distribution as a whole. We are interested in the scenario, where the variance of data may make a significant jump while the mean changes in a smooth fashion. The motivation is a liver procurement experiment monitoring organ surface temperature. Blindly applying the existing methods to the example can yield erroneous change point estimates since the…

含潜变量的高斯条件随机场图模型选择AI 解读

We consider the problem of learning a conditional Gaussian graphical model in the presence of latent variables. Building on recent advances in this field, we suggest a method that decomposes the parameters of a conditional Markov random field into the sum of a sparse and a low-rank matrix. We derive convergence bounds for this estimator and show that it is well-behaved in the high-dimensional regime as well as "sparsistent" (i.e., capable of recovering the graph structure).…

大型线性常微分方程系统的参数估计与变量选择：矩阵方法AI 解读

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to model the dynamic behavior of a complex system. Parameter estimation and variable selection for a "Big System" with linear ODEs are very challenging due to the need of nonlinear optimization in an ultra-high dimensional parameter space. In this article, we develop a parameter estimation and variable selection method based on the ideas of similarity transformation and separable least squares (SLS). Simulation studies…

具有潜在分组结构的时变面板模型的筛估计AI 解读

We propose a heterogeneous time-varying panel data model with a latent group structure that allows the coefficients to vary over both individuals and time. We assume that the coefficients change smoothly over time and form different unobserved groups. When treated as smooth functions of time, the individual functional coefficients are heterogeneous across groups but homogeneous within a group. We propose a penalized-sieve-estimation-based classifier-Lasso (C-Lasso) procedure…

广义部分线性模型中用于假设检验的偏差分析AI 解读

In this study, we develop nonparametric analysis of deviance tools for generalized partially linear models based on local polynomial fitting. Assuming a canonical link, we propose expressions for both local and global analysis of deviance, which admit an additivity property that reduces to analysis of variance decompositions in the Gaussian case. Chi-square tests based on integrated likelihood functions are proposed to formally test whether the nonparametric term is…

高维回归空间中的多重影响点检测AI 解读

Summary Influence diagnosis is an integrated component of data analysis but has been severely underinvestigated in a high dimensional regression setting. One of the key challenges, even in a fixed dimensional setting, is how to deal with multiple influential points that give rise to masking and swamping effects. The paper proposes a novel group deletion procedure referred to as multiple influential point detection by studying two extreme statistics based on a…

用 Bootstrap 估计随机集成方法的算法方差AI 解读

Although the methods of bagging and random forests are some of the most widely used prediction methods, relatively little is known about their algorithmic convergence. In particular, there are not many theoretical guarantees for deciding when an ensemble is “large enough”—so that its accuracy is close to that of an ideal infinite ensemble. Due to the fact that bagging and random forests are randomized algorithms, the choice of ensemble size is closely related to the notion…

从有限个可能误设的时间序列模型中进行模型选择AI 解读

Consider finite parametric time series models. “I have $n$ observations and $k$ models, which model should I choose on the basis of the data alone” is a frequently asked question in many practical situations. This poses the key problem of selecting a model from a collection of candidate models, none of which is necessarily the true data generating process (DGP). Although existing literature on model selection is vast, there is a serious lacuna in that the above problem does…

通过定制损失函数实现协变量平衡的倾向得分估计AI 解读

In observational studies, propensity scores are commonly estimated by maximum likelihood but may fail to balance high-dimensional pretreatment covariates even after specification search. We introduce a general framework that unifies and generalizes several recent proposals to improve covariate balance when designing an observational study. Instead of the likelihood function, we propose to optimize special loss functions—covariate balancing scoring rules (CBSR)—to estimate…

高维回归中的偏最小二乘预测AI 解读

We study the asymptotic behavior of predictions from partial least squares (PLS) regression as the sample size and number of predictors diverge in various alignments. We show that there is a range of regression scenarios where PLS predictions have the usual root-$n$ convergence rate, even when the sample size is substantially smaller than the number of predictors, and an even wider range where the rate is slower but may still produce practically useful results. We show also…

广义随机森林AI 解读

We propose generalized random forests, a method for nonparametric statistical estimation based on random forests (Breiman [Mach. Learn. 45 (2001) 5–32]) that can be used to fit any quantity of interest identified as the solution to a set of local moment equations. Following the literature on local maximum likelihood estimation, our method considers a weighted set of nearby training examples; however, instead of using classical kernel weighting functions that are prone to a…

We consider the statistical inverse problem of recovering a function $f:M\to \mathbb{R}$, where $M$ is a smooth compact Riemannian manifold with boundary, from measurements of general $X$-ray transforms $I_{a}(f)$ of $f$, corrupted by additive Gaussian noise. For $M$ equal to the unit disk with “flat” geometry and $a=0$ this reduces to the standard Radon transform, but our general setting allows for anisotropic media $M$ and can further model local “attenuation” effects—both…

使用随机子空间方法进行预测AI 解读

Random subspace methods are a new approach to obtain accurate forecasts in high-dimensional regression settings. Forecasts are constructed by averaging over forecasts from many submodels generated by random selection or random Gaussian weighting of predictors. This paper derives upper bounds on the asymptotic mean squared forecast error of these strategies, which show that the methods are particularly suitable for macroeconomic forecasting. An empirical application to the…

近似稀疏固定效应高维动态面板模型的一致有效推断AI 解读

We establish oracle inequalities for a version of the Lasso in high-dimensional fixed effects dynamic panel data models. The inequalities are valid for the coefficients of the dynamic and exogenous regressors. Separate oracle inequalities are derived for the fixed effects. Next, we show how one can conduct uniformly valid inference on the parameters of the model and construct a uniformly valid estimator of the asymptotic covariance matrix which is robust to conditional…

NETS：时间序列网络估计AI 解读

Summary We model a large panel of time series as a vector autoregression where the autoregressive matrices and the inverse covariance matrix of the system innovations are assumed to be sparse. The system has a network representation in terms of a directed graph representing predictive Granger relations and an undirected graph representing contemporaneous partial correlations. A LASSO algorithm called NETS is introduced to estimate the model. We apply the methodology to…

通过凸层级惩罚实现自适应截断的非参数回归AI 解读

SUMMARY We consider the problem of nonparametric regression with a potentially large number of covariates. We propose a convex, penalized estimation framework that is particularly well suited to high-dimensional sparse additive models and combines the appealing features of finite basis representation and smoothing penalties. In the case of additive models, a finite basis representation provides a parsimonious representation for fitted functions but is not adaptive when…

利用隐马尔可夫模型 knockoff 变量寻找关联基因AI 解读

Modern scientific studies often require the identification of a subset of explanatory variables. Several statistical methods have been developed to automate this task, and the framework of knockoffs has been proposed as a general solution for variable selection under rigorous Type I error control, without relying on strong modelling assumptions. In this paper, we extend the methodology of knockoffs to problems where the distribution of the covariates can be described by a…

非同步高频金融数据的结构化波动率矩阵估计AI 解读

Several large volatility matrix estimation procedures have been recently developed for factor-based Itô processes whose integrated volatility matrix consists of low-rank and sparse matrices. Their performance depends on the accuracy of input volatility matrix estimators. When estimating co-volatilities based on high-frequency data, one of the crucial challenges is non-synchronization for illiquid assets, which makes their co-volatility estimators inaccurate. In this paper,…

稀疏降秩回归中的交叉验证AI 解读

Summary In high dimensional data analysis, regularization methods pursuing sparsity and/or low rank have received much attention recently. To provide a proper amount of shrinkage, it is typical to use a grid search and a model comparison criterion to find the optimal regularization parameters. However, we show that fixing the parameters across all folds may result in an inconsistency issue, and it is more appropriate to cross-validate projection–selection patterns to obtain…

高维高斯向量的典型相关系数：有限秩情形AI 解读

Consider a Gaussian vector $\mathbf{z}=(\mathbf{x}',\mathbf{y}')'$, consisting of two sub-vectors $\mathbf{x}$ and $\mathbf{y}$ with dimensions $p$ and $q$, respectively. With $n$ independent observations of $\mathbf{z}$, we study the correlation between $\mathbf{x}$ and $\mathbf{y}$, from the perspective of the canonical correlation analysis. We investigate the high-dimensional case: both $p$ and $q$ are proportional to the sample size $n$. Denote by $\Sigma_{uv}$ the…

椭圆分布下的高维协方差矩阵及其球形性检验应用AI 解读

This paper discusses fluctuations of linear spectral statistics of high-dimensional sample covariance matrices when the underlying population follows an elliptical distribution. Such population often possesses high order correlations among their coordinates, which have great impact on the asymptotic behaviors of linear spectral statistics. Taking such kind of dependency into consideration, we establish a new central limit theorem for the linear spectral statistics in this…