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存在中介—结局混杂时路径特定效应的半参数估计AI 解读

Summary Path-specific effects constitute a broad class of mediated effects from an exposure to an outcome via one or more causal pathways along a set of intermediate variables. Most of the literature concerning estimation of mediated effects has focused on parametric models, with stringent assumptions regarding unmeasured confounding. We consider semiparametric inference of a path-specific effect when these assumptions are relaxed. In particular, we develop a suite of…

张量图形Lasso：TeraLassoAI 解读

Summary The paper introduces a multiway tensor generalization of the bigraphical lasso which uses a two-way sparse Kronecker sum multivariate normal model for the precision matrix to model parsimoniously conditional dependence relationships of matrix variate data based on the Cartesian product of graphs. We call this tensor graphical lasso generalization TeraLasso. We demonstrate by using theory and examples that the TeraLasso model can be accurately and scalably estimated…

融合密度估计：理论与方法AI 解读

Summary We introduce a method for non-parametric density estimation on geometric networks. We define fused density estimators as solutions to a total variation regularized maximum likelihood density estimation problem. We provide theoretical support for fused density estimation by proving that the squared Hellinger rate of convergence for the estimator achieves the minimax bound over univariate densities of log-bounded variation. We reduce the original variational…

非参数分位数工具变量回归加权平均导数的惩罚筛广义经验似然AI 解读

This paper considers estimation and inference for a weighted average derivative (WAD) of a nonparametric quantile instrumental variables regression (NPQIV). NPQIV is a non-separable and nonlinear ill-posed inverse problem, which might be why there is no published work on the asymptotic properties of any estimator of its WAD. We first characterize the semiparametric efficiency bound for a WAD of a NPQIV, which, unfortunately, depends on an unknown conditional derivative…

数据丰富环境中的宏观经济预测精度AI 解读

Summary The performance of six classes of models in forecasting different types of economic series is evaluated in an extensive pseudo out‐of‐sample exercise. One of these forecasting models, regularized data‐rich model averaging (RDRMA), is new in the literature. The findings can be summarized in four points. First, RDRMA is difficult to beat in general and generates the best forecasts for real variables. This performance is attributed to the combination of regularization…

非高斯条件下的高维因果发现AI 解读

Summary We consider graphical models based on a recursive system of linear structural equations. This implies that there is an ordering, $\sigma$, of the variables such that each observed variable $Y_v$ is a linear function of a variable-specific error term and the other observed variables $Y_u$ with $\sigma(u) < \sigma (v)$. The causal relationships, i.e., which other variables the linear functions depend on, can be described using a directed graph. It has previously been…

多重原因的益处AI 解读

Causal inference from observational data is a vital problem, but it comes with strong assumptions. Most methods assume that we observe all confounders, variables that affect both the causal variables and the outcome variables. This assumption is standard but it is also untestable. In this article, we develop the deconfounder, a way to do causal inference with weaker assumptions than the traditional methods require. The deconfounder is designed for problems of multiple causal…

空间变量选择及其在弗吉尼亚州莱姆病出现研究中的应用AI 解读

Lyme disease is an infectious disease, that is, caused by a bacterium called Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto. In the United States, Lyme disease is one of the most common infectious diseases. The major endemic areas of the disease are New England, Mid-Atlantic, East-North Central, South Atlantic, and West North-Central. Virginia is on the front-line of the disease’s diffusion from the northeast to the south. One of the research objectives for the infectious disease…

大规模网络中的免调参异质性推断AI 解读

Heterogeneity is often natural in many contemporary applications involving massive data. While posing new challenges to effective learning, it can play a crucial role in powering meaningful scientific discoveries through the integration of information among subpopulations of interest. In this article, we exploit multiple networks with Gaussian graphs to encode the connectivity patterns of a large number of features on the subpopulations. To uncover the underlying sparsity…

高维高阶数据的最优稀疏奇异值分解AI 解读

In this article, we consider the sparse tensor singular value decomposition, which aims for dimension reduction on high-dimensional high-order data with certain sparsity structure. A method named sparse tensor alternating thresholding for singular value decomposition (STAT-SVD) is proposed. The proposed procedure features a novel double projection & thresholding scheme, which provides a sharp criterion for thresholding in each iteration. Compared with regular tensor SVD…

基于 Lasso 的稀疏切片逆回归AI 解读

For multiple index models, it has recently been shown that the sliced inverse regression (SIR) is consistent for estimating the sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) space if and only if $ρ = \mathrm{lim} \frac{p}{n} = 0$, where p is the dimension and n is the sample size. Thus, when p is of the same or a higher order of n, additional assumptions such as sparsity must be imposed in order to ensure consistency for SIR. By constructing artificial response variables made up from…

使用单侧动态主成分预测多条时间序列AI 解读

We define one-sided dynamic principal components (ODPC) for time series as linear combinations of the present and past values of the series that minimize the reconstruction mean squared error. Usually dynamic principal components have been defined as functions of past and future values of the series and therefore they are not appropriate for forecasting purposes. On the contrary, it is shown that the ODPC introduced in this article can be successfully used for forecasting…

使用变分近似的半参数回归AI 解读

Semiparametric regression offers a flexible framework for modeling nonlinear relationships between a response and covariates. A prime example are generalized additive models (GAMs) where splines (say) are used to approximate nonlinear functional components in conjunction with a quadratic penalty to control for overfitting. Estimation and inference are then generally performed based on the penalized likelihood, or under a mixed model framework. The penalized likelihood…

高维向量独立性的检验AI 解读

In this paper, new tests for the independence of two high-dimensional vectors are investigated. We consider the case where the dimension of the vectors increases with the sample size and propose multivariate analysis of variance-type statistics for the hypothesis of a block diagonal covariance matrix. The asymptotic properties of the new test statistics are investigated under the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis using random matrix theory. For this purpose, we…

海量数据高维部分线性模型中非参数函数的投影样条估计AI 解读

In this paper, we consider the local asymptotics of the nonparametric function in a partially linear model, within the framework of the divide-and-conquer estimation. Unlike the fixed-dimensional setting in which the parametric part does not affect the nonparametric part, the high-dimensional setting makes the issue more complicated. In particular, when a sparsity-inducing penalty such as lasso is used to make the estimation of the linear part feasible, the bias introduced…

高维相关矩阵检验AI 解读

Testing correlation structures has attracted extensive attention in the literature due to both its importance in real applications and several major theoretical challenges. The aim of this paper is to develop a general framework of testing correlation structures for the one-, two-, and multiple sample testing problems under a high-dimensional setting when both the sample size and data dimension go to infinity. Our test statistics are designed to deal with both the dense and…

高维随机效应模型中方差分量估计量的特征值分布AI 解读

We study the spectra of MANOVA estimators for variance component covariance matrices in multivariate random effects models. When the dimensionality of the observations is large and comparable to the number of realizations of each random effect, we show that the empirical spectra of such estimators are well-approximated by deterministic laws. The Stieltjes transforms of these laws are characterized by systems of fixed-point equations, which are numerically solvable by a…

不可知 PAC 机器学习模型的精确下界AI 解读

We provide an exact nonasymptotic lower bound on the minimax expected excess risk (EER) in the agnostic probably-approximately-correct (PAC) machine learning classification model and identify minimax learning algorithms as certain maximally symmetric and minimally randomized “voting” procedures. Based on this result, an exact asymptotic lower bound on the minimax EER is provided. This bound is of the simple form $c_{\infty}/\sqrt{\nu}$ as $\nu\to\infty$, where $c_{\infty}=0.16997\dots$…

高维广义线性模型的线性假设检验AI 解读

This paper is concerned with testing linear hypotheses in high dimensional generalized linear models. To deal with linear hypotheses, we first propose the constrained partial regularization method and study its statistical properties. We further introduce an algorithm for solving regularization problems with folded-concave penalty functions and linear constraints. To test linear hypotheses, we propose a partial penalized likelihood ratio test, a partial penalized score test…

高维加性回归中的双重惩罚估计AI 解读

Additive regression provides an extension of linear regression by modeling the signal of a response as a sum of functions of covariates of relatively low complexity. We study penalized estimation in high-dimensional nonparametric additive regression where functional semi-norms are used to induce smoothness of component functions and the empirical $L_{2}$ norm is used to induce sparsity. The functional semi-norms can be of Sobolev or bounded variation types and are allowed to…

高维 Ising 模型中的图性质检验AI 解读

This paper explores the information-theoretic limitations of graph property testing in zero-field Ising models. Instead of learning the entire graph structure, sometimes testing a basic graph property such as connectivity, cycle presence or maximum clique size is a more relevant and attainable objective. Since property testing is more fundamental than graph recovery, any necessary conditions for property testing imply corresponding conditions for graph recovery, while custom…

用于高维选择后推断的knockoff过滤器AI 解读

This paper develops a framework for testing for associations in a possibly high-dimensional linear model where the number of features/variables may far exceed the number of observational units. In this framework, the observations are split into two groups, where the first group is used to screen for a set of potentially relevant variables, whereas the second is used for inference over this reduced set of variables; we also develop strategies for leveraging information from…

二到无穷范数与奇异子空间几何及其高维统计应用AI 解读

The singular value matrix decomposition plays a ubiquitous role throughout statistics and related fields. Myriad applications including clustering, classification, and dimensionality reduction involve studying and exploiting the geometric structure of singular values and singular vectors. This paper provides a novel collection of technical and theoretical tools for studying the geometry of singular subspaces using the two-to-infinity norm. Motivated by preliminary…

高维数据下的非可分模型AI 解读

This paper studies non-separable models with a continuous treatment when the dimension of the control variables is high and potentially larger than the effective sample size. We propose a three-step estimation procedure to estimate the average, quantile, and marginal treatment effects. In the first stage we estimate the conditional mean, distribution, and density objects by penalized local least squares, penalized local maximum likelihood estimation, and numerical…