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数据不共享条件下稀疏高维模型的协同推断AI 解读

In modern data analysis, an improvement in statistical efficiency is expected via effective collaboration among multiple data holders with non-shared data. In this article, we propose a collaborative score-type test (CST) for testing linear hypotheses, which accommodates potentially high-dimensional nuisance parameters and a diverging number of constraints and target parameters. Through a careful decomposition of the Kiefer-Bahadur representation for the traditional score…

遗传风险评分构建：投影汇总统计与灵活收缩的稳健贝叶斯方法AI 解读

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) developed from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) can be used for risk stratification by quantifying the genetic contribution to disease, and many clinical applications have been proposed. Bayesian methods are popular for building PRS because of their natural ability to regularize models and incorporate external information. In this article, we present new theoretical results, methods, and extensive numerical studies to advance Bayesian…

大型非高斯SVAR及其货币政策应用AI 解读

Summary We develop a large structural vector autoregression (SVAR) that is statistically identified using higher-order moments under non-Gaussian, mutually independent shocks, without imposing economically motivated restrictions. Estimation is performed via an efficient Gibbs sampler that scales well with dimensionality, and we introduce an estimator of the deviance information criterion to facilitate model comparison, including the evaluation of overidentifying economic…

因子增强稀疏 MIDAS 回归及其即时预测应用AI 解读

This article investigates factor-augmented sparse MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regressions for high-dimensional time series data, which may be observed at different frequencies. Our novel approach integrates sparse and dense dimensionality reduction techniques. We derive the convergence rate of our estimator under misspecification due to the MIDAS approximation error, τ-mixing dependence, and polynomial tails. Our method’s finite sample performance is assessed via Monte Carlo…

积分概率度量引导的 CUSUM-Net 非参数变点检测AI 解读

Abstract We propose CUSUM-Net, a nonparametric method for changepoint detection based on integral probability metrics and deep neural networks. Our approach learns a critic function by maximizing an aggregate CUSUM objective over candidate changepoints, thereby linking changepoint detection to optimization of two-sample integral probability metrics. The learned critic induces a one-dimensional representation on which changepoints are localized by a classical CUSUM scan.…

识别谱尖峰的来源：因子还是混合？AI 解读

Abstract We consider the problem of identifying the pattern of latent variables in high-dimensional linear latent variable models, which can also be interpreted as determining the source of spiked singular values in the data matrix. Specifically, we test whether the latent variables are continuous or categorical, a distinction that is crucial for data interpretation, but challenging in the high-dimensional regime. To address this inference problem, we analyse the asymptotic…

高维多视图数据协方差结构的推断AI 解读

Summary This article focuses on covariance estimation for multi-view data. Popular approaches rely on factor-analytic decompositions with shared and view-specific latent factors. Posterior computation is conducted via expensive and brittle Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling or variational approximations that underestimate uncertainty and lack theoretical guarantees. Our proposed methodology employs spectral decompositions to estimate and align latent factors that are active…

协变量分布迁移下的自动去偏机器学习AI 解读

Summary We present machine learning estimators for causal and predictive parameters under covariate shift, where covariate distributions differ between training and target populations. One such parameter is the average effect of a policy that alters the covariate distribution, such as a treatment that modifies surrogate covariates used to predict long-term outcomes. Another example is the average treatment effect for a population with a shifted covariate distribution. We…

度量图上的非参数估计AI 解读

Abstract This work discusses a theory of functional spaces over metric graphs that permits the definition of penalized likelihood methods for data observed over spatial supports that are graphs. Within the considered mathematical framework, we recover classical results in functional analysis, such as a Poincaré-type inequality. This, in turn, enables us to uplift, to the present setting, the theory of some fundamental penalized likelihood methods. Specifically, we present…

GS-BART：采用图分裂决策规则的贝叶斯加性回归树AI 解读

Ensemble decision tree methods such as XGBoost, Random Forest, and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) have gained enormous popularity in data science for their superior performance in machine learning regression and classification tasks. In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian graph-split additive decision tree method, GS-BART, designed to enhance the performance of axis-parallel split-based BART for dependent data with graph structures. The proposed approach…

高维暴露与高维中介模型的统计推断AI 解读

High-dimensional mediation analysis has gained increasing interest in various fields, particularly in genetic and medical research. Compared with existing works that focus mainly on high-dimensional mediators, this paper advocates a new framework of Partial Regularization-based Inference for Mediation Effects (PRIME) when both exposures and mediators are high-dimensional. Estimated direct and indirect effects are established using a group-wise partially penalized least…

Summary We adapt double machine learning to macroeconomic time series by combining regularized nuisance estimation with reverse cross-fitting. This deterministic scheme exploits time reversibility to use time-reversed auxiliary blocks and, unlike neighbour-deletion designs, avoids buffer blocks, thereby improving sample usage. We derive conditions for asymptotic validity and show in simulations that the estimator performs well in realistic finite samples across the designs…

资产价格能否帮助预测通胀？来自个股价格的证据AI 解读

This paper revisits the predictive power of asset prices for inflation, focusing on individual stock prices rather than aggregate indices. Using a large panel data of firm-level stock prices and applying machine learning techniques, we demonstrate that individual stock prices significantly enhance the accuracy of inflation forecasts, particularly over medium- to long-term horizons and during periods of high inflationary and deflationary pressure. Compared to composite and…

空间干扰效应的高维检测AI 解读

Modeling interference effects in high-dimensional settings presents significant challenges due to the complexity of underlying dependence structures. Existing approaches often rely on explicit and homogeneous assumptions, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios. In this paper, we introduce a novel low-rank and sparse treatment effect model that leverages high-dimensional techniques to identify interference structures without restrictive parametric assumptions.…

分位数中的区制特定股票收益可预测性AI 解读

This article captures the underlying regime switching mechanism in the prediction of stock returns via a predictive quantile regression with multiple thresholds. The predictability of each predictor is allowed to switch from one regime to another according to the value of a threshold variable and could vary across quantiles, and the predictors could possess heterogeneous degrees of persistence. Statistical learning techniques, including a sequential estimation procedure, an…

含异常值高维数据的稳健因子分析AI 解读

Outliers are commonly encountered in financial and economic data, and pose significant challenges to the study of the conventional factor models. This article focuses on factor analysis for high-dimensional data in the presence of random outliers. We first propose a new class of factor model which incorporates a sparse outlier matrix. We then develop a class of robust methods to estimate the factor matrix and the number of factors. Under mild conditions, consistency of the…

动态空间自回归模型的推断与变点检测AI 解读

We analyze a varying-coefficient spatial autoregressive model with spatial fixed effects. One salient feature of the model is the incorporation of multiple spatial weight matrices through their linear combinations with varying coefficients, which help solve the problem of choosing the most “correct” one for applied econometricians who often face the availability of multiple expert spatial weight matrices. We estimate and make inferences on the model coefficients and…

交互固定效应面板中潜在组结构的收缩估计与识别AI 解读

This paper provides a framework for joint shrinkage estimation and identification of latent group structures in panel data models with interactive fixed effects and large number of explanatory variables. The latent structure of the model allows individuals to be classified into a number of groups where the number of groups and/or each individual’s group identity are unknown. A doubly penalized principal component estimation procedure using a pairwise fusion penalty and an…

条件分位数处理效应估计的深度正交学习器AI 解读

In recent years, orthogonal statistical learning has been widely recognized for its ability to reduce sensitivity with respect to nuisance parameters to estimate the target parameter, making it an important tool in causal inference, particularly in the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). However, its application on conditional quantile treatment effect (CQTE), which offers a more comprehensive perspective on treatment effects than CATE, has not yet…

将预测能力推断扩展至机器学习方法AI 解读

The use of machine learning methods for predictive purposes has exponentially increased over the past two decades, but uncertainty quantification for predictive comparisons remains challenging and underdeveloped. This article addresses this gap by extending the classic inference theory for predictive ability in time series to modern machine learners, such as Lasso or Deep Learning. We investigate under which conditions such extensions are possible. For standard out-of-sample…

极值蒙特卡洛滤波器：通过模拟与回归提取信号AI 解读

We introduce a novel simulation-based method for signal extraction in a general class of state space models. It can be used to estimate time-varying conditional means, modes, and quantiles, and to predict latent variables or forecast observations. The method consists of generating artificial datasets from the model and estimating the quantities of interest via extremum estimation. The approach is broadly applicable and its implementation is straightforward. The method is…

含影响节点与社群的高维分位数向量自回归AI 解读

Quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) models offer enhanced capabilities over vector autoregression (VAR) models in analyzing asymmetric interactions within multiple time series and are widely used in many areas, including finance and economics. However, in scenarios involving high-dimensional data where the number of time series N exceeds the length of the time series T, both parameter estimation and the theoretical establishment present significant challenges. Notably,…

通过选择后推断稳健发现微生物组成特征AI 解读

Identifying taxa associated with host phenotypes is crucial for understanding host-microbe interactions and their underlying molecular mechanisms. However, analyzing microbiome data presents unique challenges, as the observed abundances of taxa are high-dimensional, compositional, and subject to both sample-specific and taxon-specific biases. Many existing methods for differential abundance testing struggle to balance false discovery rate control with statistical power. In…

经济与金融中的贝叶斯方法：统一综述与分类AI 解读

This special issue brings together 21 papers that reflect the expanding scope and methodological evolution of Bayesian econometrics. We introduce a new organizing taxonomy that distinguishes between Traditional Bayesian Approaches - rooted in conjugate priors, standard likelihood-based estimation, and established Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques - and Contemporary Bayesian Frontiers, characterized by nonparametric methods, variational inference, high-dimensional…