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利用条件不相关分量建模多元波动率AI 解读

Summary We propose to model multivariate volatility processes on the basis of the newly defined conditionally uncorrelated components (CUCs). This model represents a parsimonious representation for matrix-valued processes. It is flexible in the sense that each CUC may be fitted separately with any appropriate univariate volatility model. Computationally it splits one high dimensional optimization problem into several lower dimensional subproblems. Consistency for the…

变量纳入与收缩算法AI 解读

The Lasso is a popular and computationally efficient procedure for automatically performing both variable selection and coefficient shrinkage on linear regression models. One limitation of the Lasso is that the same tuning parameter is used for both variable selection and shrinkage. As a result, it typically ends up selecting a model with too many variables to prevent overshrinkage of the regression coefficients. We suggest an improved class of methods called variable…

非齐次空间点过程的一致非参数强度估计AI 解读

A common nonparametric approach to estimate the intensity function of an inhomogeneous spatial point process is through kernel smoothing. When conducting the smoothing, one typically uses events only in a local set around the point of interest. But the resulting estimator often is inconsistent, because the number of events in a fixed set is of order 1 for spatial point processes. In this article we propose a new covariate-based kernel smoothing method to estimate the…

基于约束典型相关与变量筛选的降维AI 解读

The “curse of dimensionality” has remained a challenge for high-dimensional data analysis in statistics. The sliced inverse regression (SIR) and canonical correlation (CANCOR) methods aim to reduce the dimensionality of data by replacing the explanatory variables with a small number of composite directions without losing much information. However, the estimated composite directions generally involve all of the variables, making their interpretation difficult. To simplify the…

混合模型选择的围栏方法AI 解读

Many model search strategies involve trading off model fit with model complexity in a penalized goodness of fit measure. Asymptotic properties for these types of procedures in settings like linear regression and ARMA time series have been studied, but these do not naturally extend to nonstandard situations such as mixed effects models, where simple definition of the sample size is not meaningful. This paper introduces a new class of strategies, known as fence methods, for…

高维变量选择与回归中的“预处理”AI 解读

We consider regression problems where the number of predictors greatly exceeds the number of observations. We propose a method for variable selection that first estimates the regression function, yielding a “preconditioned” response variable. The primary method used for this initial regression is supervised principal components. Then we apply a standard procedure such as forward stepwise selection or the LASSO to the preconditioned response variable. In a number of simulated…

高维线性回归中 Lasso 变量选择的稀疏性与偏差AI 解读

Meinshausen and Buhlmann [Ann. Statist. 34 (2006) 1436–1462] showed that, for neighborhood selection in Gaussian graphical models, under a neighborhood stability condition, the LASSO is consistent, even when the number of variables is of greater order than the sample size. Zhao and Yu [(2006) J. Machine Learning Research 7 2541–2567] formalized the neighborhood stability condition in the context of linear regression as a strong irrepresentable condition. That paper showed…

非凹惩罚似然模型中的一步稀疏估计AI 解读

Fan & Li (2001) propose a family of variable selection methods via penalized likelihood using concave penalty functions. The nonconcave penalized likelihood estimators enjoy the oracle properties, but maximizing the penalized likelihood function is computationally challenging, because the objective function is nondifferentiable and nonconcave. In this article we propose a new unified algorithm based on the local linear approximation (LLA) for maximizing the penalized…

条件异方差创新下多元 ARMA 模型的子空间估计AI 解读

This paper deals with the estimation of linear dynamic models of the autoregressive moving average type for the conditional mean for stationary time series with conditionally heteroskedastic innovation process. Estimation is performed using a particular class of subspace methods that are known to have computational advantages as compared to estimation based on criterion minimization. These advantages are especially strong for high-dimensional time series. Conditions to…

部分折叠 Gibbs 采样器AI 解读

Ever-increasing computational power, along with ever–more sophisticated statistical computing techniques, is making it possible to fit ever–more complex statistical models. Among the more computationally intensive methods, the Gibbs sampler is popular because of its simplicity and power to effectively generate samples from a high-dimensional probability distribution. Despite its simple implementation and description, however, the Gibbs sampler is criticized for its sometimes…

异方差测量误差下的密度估计AI 解读

We consider density estimation when the variable of interest is subject to heteroscedastic measurement error. The density is assumed to have a smooth but unknown functional form that we model with a penalized mixture of B-splines. We treat the situation in which multiple mismeasured observations of each variable of interest are observed for at least some of the subjects, and the measurement error is assumed to be additive and normal. The measurement error variance function…

预测变量缺失时的充分降维AI 解读

In high-dimensional data analysis, sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) methods are effective in reducing the predictor dimension, while retaining full regression information and imposing no parametric models. However, it is common in high-dimensional data that a subset of predictors may have missing observations. Existing SDR methods resort to the complete-case analysis by removing all the subjects with missingness in any of the predictors under inquiry. Such an approach…

含多个协变量的大规模函数数据惩罚聚类AI 解读

In this article we propose a penalized clustering method for large-scale data with multiple covariates through a functional data approach. In our proposed method, responses and covariates are linked together through nonparametric multivariate functions (fixed effects), which have great flexibility in modeling various function features, such as jump points, branching, and periodicity. Functional ANOVA is used to further decompose multivariate functions in a reproducing kernel…

功能相关基因中多态性的贝叶斯选择与聚类AI 解读

In epidemiologic studies, there is often interest in assessing the relationship between polymorphisms in functionally related genes and a health outcome. For each candidate gene, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data are collected at a number of locations, resulting in a large number of possible genotypes. Because instabilities can result in analyses that include all the SNPs, dimensionality is typically reduced by conducting single SNP analyses or attempting to identify…

装袋法对经济时间序列预测有多大帮助？美国消费价格通胀案例AI 解读

This article focuses on the widely studied question of whether the inclusion of indicators of real economic activity lowers the prediction mean squared error of forecasting models of U.S. consumer price inflation. We propose three variants of the bagging algorithm specifically designed for this type of forecasting problem and evaluate their empirical performance. Although bagging predictors in our application are clearly more accurate than equally weighted forecasts, median…

半参数过度离散广义线性模型中的变量选择与模型平均AI 解读

We express the mean and variance terms in a double-exponential regression model as additive functions of the predictors and use Bayesian variable selection to determine which predictors enter the model and whether they enter linearly or flexibly. When the variance term is null, we obtain a generalized additive model, which becomes a generalized linear model if the predictors enter the mean linearly. The model is estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, and the…

半参数回归模型中的惩罚估计函数与变量选择AI 解读

We propose a general strategy for variable selection in semiparametric regression models by penalizing appropriate estimating functions. Important applications include semiparametric linear regression with censored responses and semiparametric regression with missing predictors. Unlike the existing penalized maximum likelihood estimators, the proposed penalized estimating functions may not pertain to the derivatives of any objective functions and may be discrete in the…

利用高维输出校准计算机模型AI 解读

This work focuses on combining observations from field experiments with detailed computer simulations of a physical process to carry out statistical inference. Of particular interest here is determining uncertainty in resulting predictions. This typically involves calibration of parameters in the computer simulator as well as accounting for inadequate physics in the simulator. The problem is complicated by the fact that simulation code is sufficiently demanding that only a…

复合分位数回归与模型选择的预言机理论AI 解读

Coefficient estimation and variable selection in multiple linear regression is routinely done in the (penalized) least squares (LS) framework. The concept of model selection oracle introduced by Fan and Li [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 96 (2001) 1348–1360] characterizes the optimal behavior of a model selection procedure. However, the least-squares oracle theory breaks down if the error variance is infinite. In the current paper we propose a new regression method called…

机器学习中的核方法AI 解读

We review machine learning methods employing positive definite kernels. These methods formulate learning and estimation problems in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) of functions defined on the data domain, expanded in terms of a kernel. Working in linear spaces of function has the benefit of facilitating the construction and analysis of learning algorithms while at the same time allowing large classes of functions. The latter include nonlinear functions as well as…

删失数据半参数线性回归中的变量选择AI 解读

Summary We describe two procedures for selecting variables in the semiparametric linear regression model for censored data. One procedure penalizes a vector of estimating equations and simultaneously estimates regression coefficients and selects submodels. A second procedure controls systematically the proportion of unimportant variables through forward selection and the addition of pseudorandom variables. We explore both rank-based statistics and Buckley–James statistics in…

带序贯参数学习的实用滤波方法AI 解读

Summary The paper develops a simulation-based approach to sequential parameter learning and filtering in general state space models. Our approach is based on approximating the target posterior by a mixture of fixed lag smoothing distributions. Parameter inference exploits a sufficient statistic structure and the methodology can be easily implemented by modifying state space smoothing algorithms. We avoid reweighting particles and hence sample degeneracy problems that plague…

稀疏高维回归模型中桥估计量的渐近性质AI 解读

We study the asymptotic properties of bridge estimators in sparse, high-dimensional, linear regression models when the number of covariates may increase to infinity with the sample size. We are particularly interested in the use of bridge estimators to distinguish between covariates whose coefficients are zero and covariates whose coefficients are nonzero. We show that under appropriate conditions, bridge estimators correctly select covariates with nonzero coefficients with…

排序与 U 统计量的经验最小化AI 解读

The problem of ranking/ordering instances, instead of simply classifying them, has recently gained much attention in machine learning. In this paper we formulate the ranking problem in a rigorous statistical framework. The goal is to learn a ranking rule for deciding, among two instances, which one is “better,” with minimum ranking risk. Since the natural estimates of the risk are of the form of a U-statistic, results of the theory of U-processes are required for…