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联邦商品与服务采购的预测模型AI 解读

The principal assumption underlying the model is that Presidential budget recommendations [only for goods and services] are an adequate approximation to Congressional appropriations. This implies that Federal purchases depend on the past stream of budget recommendations. It is suggested that the time shape of this past stream be represented by Koyck and/or Pascal distributed lags. Our best forecasting system, which combines Koyck and Pascal distributions, results in forecast…

联邦商品与服务采购的预测模型AI 解读

The principal assumption underlying the model is that Presidential budget recommendations [only for goods and services] are an adequate approximation to Congressional appropriations. This implies that Federal purchases depend on the past stream of budget recommendations. It is suggested that the time shape of this past stream be represented by Koyck and/or Pascal distributed lags. Our best forecasting system, which combines Koyck and Pascal distributions, results in forecast…

摘要暂缺

结构计量经济模型的简化式系数与预测值的协方差矩阵AI 解读

A. S. Goldberger, A. L. Nagar, H. S. Odeh, The Covariance Matrices of Reduced-Form Coefficients and of Forecasts for a Structural Econometric Model, Econometrica, Vol. 29, No. 4 (Oct., 1961), pp. 556-573

最小二乘法在计量经济学中的地位AI 解读

IN A RECENT paper,' Frederick V. Waugh argues strongly for the use of ordinary least squares in simultaneous systems. His argument is not that least squares gives unbiased estimates of structural parameters2 but that they do (as consistent structural estimators do not) give unbiased estimates of the dependent variable in the regression equation given the values of the other variables and that this is what is needed for forecasting purposes. This note argues that Waugh's…

美国季度计量经济模型AI 解读

Simplicity in an econometric model may often be a virtue provided that the model performs its particular predictive function in a reasonably competent manner. The following model, while minimizing computational difficulties, demonstrates fairly accurate forecasting ability and a partial explanation, via an accelerator, of postwar fluctuations in the gross national product of the United States.

美国季度计量经济模型AI 解读

Simplicity in an econometric model may often be a virtue provided that the model performs its particular predictive function in a reasonably competent manner. The following model, while minimizing computational difficulties, demonstrates fairly accurate forecasting ability and a partial explanation, via an accelerator, of postwar fluctuations in the gross national product of the United States.

摘要暂缺

家庭形成率及其组成的变化AI 解读

In the prediction of future household formation, it proves useful to separate movements caused by population changes from those caused by shifts in the occurrence rates of households among a given population. The varying rates of occurrence reflect the differential impacts of economic vairables and social change. This study indicates that until better data are available, forecasts of households will have to rely primarily upon judgment. This can be gained from an analysis of…

家庭形成率及其构成的变化AI 解读

In the prediction of future household formation, it proves useful to separate movements caused by population changes from those caused by shifts in the occurrence rates of households among a given population. The varying rates of occurrence reflect the differential impacts of economic vairables and social change. This study indicates that until better data are available, forecasts of households will have to rely primarily upon judgment. This can be gained from an analysis of…

利用 Pistimetric 概率预测自回归过程的说明AI 解读

Summary The distributions of the parameters and of the future values of a Markov scheme are obtained by a technique which combines the use of Bayes' theorem with the method of inference sometimes considered appropriate to situations where there exist sufficient estimators.

美国农业的计量经济模型AI 解读

Economists and agricultural economists have done parallel research in estimating quantitative economic relations for various economic sectors. This study is an attempt to bring together the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors by grafting onto a master model of the total economy a set of estimated relationships for the agricultural sector. In this way it is possible to trace the effects of changes in the non-agricultural economy through the agricultural sector and in…

美国农业的计量经济模型AI 解读

Economists and agricultural economists have done parallel research in estimating quantitative economic relations for various economic sectors. This study is an attempt to bring together the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors by grafting onto a master model of the total economy a set of estimated relationships for the agricultural sector. In this way it is possible to trace the effects of changes in the non-agricultural economy through the agricultural sector and in…

天气预报评价的 Trentile 偏差法AI 解读

This article outlines a method originated by the author during World War II for evaluating short range weather forecasts. An interesting feature is the use of “deviational penalty scores” to adjust for the relative ease or difficulty of forecasting for varying weather situations. A number of other studies on weather forecast evaluation by other authors lead to different methods of analysis (see references at end of article). The author has encountered situations in other…

天气预报评价的 Trentile 偏差法AI 解读

This article outlines a method originated by the author during World War II for evaluating short range weather forecasts. An interesting feature is the use of “deviational penalty scores” to adjust for the relative ease or difficulty of forecasting for varying weather situations. A number of other studies on weather forecast evaluation by other authors lead to different methods of analysis (see references at end of article). The author has encountered situations in other…

平稳时间序列的统计分析AI 解读

Stationary Stochastic Processes and Their Representations: 1.0 Introduction 1.1 What is a stochastic process? 1.2 Continuity in the mean 1.3 Stochastic set functions of orthogonal increments 1.4 Orthogonal representations of stochastic processes 1.5 Stationary processes 1.6 Representations of stationary processes 1.7 Time and ensemble averages 1.8 Vector processes 1.9 Operations on stationary processes 1.10 Harmonizable stochastic processes Statistical Questions when the…

计算复相关、偏相关与回归系数的改进 Doolittle 方法AI 解读

A method for obtaining multiple and partial correlation and regression coefficients on desk calculators is presented that is efficient and highly flexible. Insofar as possible, the computations parallel those used when fitting interrelated systems of equations by the limited information approach. This method is easier for beginners to understand than the usual Doolittle approach because no back solution is required. Efficient methods for (1) coding the data, (2)…

计算多重相关、偏相关与回归的改进 Doolittle 方法AI 解读

A method for obtaining multiple and partial correlation and regression coefficients on desk calculators is presented that is efficient and highly flexible. Insofar as possible, the computations parallel those used when fitting interrelated systems of equations by the limited information approach. This method is easier for beginners to understand than the usual Doolittle approach because no back solution is required. Efficient methods for (1) coding the data, (2)…

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摘要暂缺

失业保险业务附带数据与预测AI 解读

The unemployment insurance program has been operating in this country since the beginning of 1938. There have been many growing pains during these first eleven years. The operating problems involved in setting up this vast program have left little time thus far for careful consideration of the statistical data that are automatically produced in the course of its operations. These data, now and in the future, can be a fruitful source of information on changes in economic…

失业保险运行附带数据及其预测用途AI 解读

The unemployment insurance program has been operating in this country since the beginning of 1938. There have been many growing pains during these first eleven years. The operating problems involved in setting up this vast program have left little time thus far for careful consideration of the statistical data that are automatically produced in the course of its operations. These data, now and in the future, can be a fruitful source of information on changes in economic…

以计量经济模型指导经济政策AI 解读

IT IS desirable to provide tools of analysis suited for public economic policy that are, as much as possible, independent of the personal judgments of a particular investigator. Econometric models are put forth in this scientific spirit, because these models, if fully developed and properly used, eventually should lead all investigators to the same conclusions, independent of their personal whims. The usual experience in the field of economic policy is that there are about…

消费的测量与预测AI 解读

During the past decade, under the stimulus of changed economic conditions and changed attitudes toward policy formation, real progress has been made in the measurement of consumption in the United States. Concepts have been clarified considerably, techniques for gathering information have been improved, some information has been collected, and a certain amount of lay as well as professional support has been developed for further use of public funds to measure consumption.…