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利用动态回归模型进行预测
A Primer on ARIMA Models. A Primer on Regression Models. Rational Distributed Lag Models. Building Dynamic Regression Models: Model Identification. Building Dynamic Regression Models: Model Checking, Reformulation, and Evaluation. Intervention Analysis. Intervention and Outlier Detection and Treatment. Estimation and Forecasting. Dynamic Regression Models in a Vector ARMA Framework. Appendices. References. Index.
评论：自适应预测
I am not surprised by how far behind our profession is in calculating interval forecasts. After all, interval forecast is a concept not well formulated nor well understood by statisticians. On the other hand, I am amazed by Chatfield's expectation and his recommendation. Will he be satisfied when Formulas (4.1) and (4.2) are routinely used in practice? Will he be satisfied when the forecast intervals are sufficiently wide to cover all the data points in out-of-sample…
预测区间的计算
Several general approaches to calculating interval forecasts are described and compared. They include the use of theoretical formulae based on a fitted probability model, various "approximate" formulae (which should be avoided), and empirically-based, simulation, and resampling procedures. Some gener al comments are made as to why prediction intervals tend to be too narr ow in practice to encompass the required proportion of future observations. An example demonstrates the…
序贯概率预测有效性的检验
Events are observed sequentially, and at each stage a probability for the next event is assessed. We consider the relationship between the sequence of probability forecasts and the sequence of outcomes. We argue that the forecasts may be considered “empirically valid” when both these sequences are consistent with a common joint distribution for the events. To aid in assessing validity, we introduce various test statistics that measure, in a natural way, the empirical…
函数系数自回归模型
In this article we propose a new class of models for nonlinear time series analysis, investigate properties of the proposed model, and suggest a modeling procedure for building such a model. The proposed modeling procedure makes use of ideas from both parametric and nonparametric statistics. A consistency result is given to support the procedure. For illustration we apply the proposed model and procedure to several data sets and show that the resulting models substantially…
时间序列模型参数与异常值效应的联合估计
Time series data are often subject to uncontrolled or unexpected interventions, from which various types of outlying observations are produced. Outliers in time series, depending on their nature, may have a moderate to significant impact on the effectiveness of the Standard methodology for time series analysis with respect to model identification, estimation, and forecasting. In this article we use an iterative outlier detection and adjustment procedure to obtain joint…
条件方差中的共同持久性
A common finding in many of the recent empirical studies with the ARCH class of models applied to high frequency financial data concerns the apparent persistence of shocks for forecast of the future conditional variances. It is likely that several different variables share this same implied long-run component, however. In that situation, the variables are defined to be copersistent in variance. Conditions for copersistence to occur in the linear multivariate GARCH model are…
汇率的长记忆
Using the Geweke-Porter-Hudak test, the author finds evidence of long memory in exchange-rate data. This implies t hat the empirical evidence of unit roots in exchange rates may not be robust to long-memory alternatives. Fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average models are estimated by both the time-domain exact maximum likelihood method and the frequency-domain approximate maximum likelihood method. Impulse-response functions and forecasts based.on these…
多步预测中最大似然估计的稳健性：指数平滑情形
We extend the argument initiated by Cox (1961) that the exponential smoothing formula can be made more robust for multi-step forecasts if the smoothing parameter is adjusted as a function of the forecast horizon l. The consistency property of the estimator which minimizes the sum of squares of the sample l-step ahead forecast errors makes the robustness result useful in practice. We also generalize the consistency result to some other parsimonious nonstationary models which…
贝叶斯网络中的参数更新
A Bayes network is a directed acyclic graph in which the links are quantified by fixed conditional probabilities and the nodes represent random variables. The primary use of the network is to provide an efficient method for updating conditional probabilities in the graph. We consider the consequences of using the network as the computational device for updating parameter estimates in the dynamic linear model, a discrete time Bayesian model. We show that using the network…
贝叶斯网络中的参数更新
A Bayes network is a directed acyclic graph in which the links are quantified by fixed conditional probabilities and the nodes represent random variables. The primary use of the network is to provide an efficient method for updating conditional probabilities in the graph. We consider the consequences of using the network as the computational device for updating parameter estimates in the dynamic linear model, a discrete time Bayesian model. We show that using the network…
欧洲货币体系汇率的多变量最近邻预测
Exchange rate modelling has been a persistent puzzle for international economists. Forecasts from popular models for the exchange rate generally fail to improve upon the random walk out-of-sample. While a multivariate nonparametric approach provides useful information about exchange rates, the model produces forecasts superior to the random walk for only one of the three EMS currencies examined. Using a statistic developed in Mizrach (1991), I find that the forecast…
利用波动率指标改善预测
This paper explores the possibility of improved out of sample forecasting for stock returns and foreign exchange rates using observed nonlinearities in the two series. Forecasting is done using nonparametric techniques where important information is obtained from the current level of volatility in the series. For both series forecast improvements are observed, but for stock returns the improvements are only marginal. These results indicate the usefulness and stability of…
股票波动率的非线性时间序列分析
The absolute value of the mean-corrected excess return is used in this paper to measure the volatility of stock returns. We apply various nonlinearity tests available in the literature to show that such volatility series are strongly nonlinear. We then explore the use of threshold autoregressive (TAR) models in describing monthly volatility series. The models built suggest that the volatility series exhibit significant lower-order serial correlations when the volatility is…
评 Otter《多元时间序列中的典型相关及一年期与多年期宏观预测应用》
(1992). Comments on “Canonical Correlation in Multivariate Time Series Analysis With an Application to One-Year-Ahead and Multiyear- Ahead Macroeconomic Forecasting,” by P. W. Otter. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics: Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 470-471.
预测表现的简单非参数检验
This paper derives a distribution free procedure for testing the accuracy of forecasts when the focus of the analysis is on the correct prediction of the direction of change in the variable under consideration. The test applies to a general m x n contingency table and it is shown that the standard null hypothesis of independence in a contingency table implies the null hypothesis of the proposed test of predictive failure but not vice versa. As a test of predictive…
《多元时间序列分析中的典型相关及一年与多年期宏观预测应用》评论回复
Pieter W. Otter, [Comments on "Canonical Correlation in Multivariate Time Series Analysis with an Application to One-Year-Ahead and Multiyear-Ahead Macroeconomic Forecasting," by P. W. Otter]: Reply, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 10, No. 4 (Oct., 1992), pp. 471-472
对《多元时间序列分析中的典型相关及其在一年期与多年期宏观预测中的应用》的评论
Arnold Zellner, Chansik Hong, Comments on "Canonical Correlation in Multivariate Time Series Analysis with an Application to One-Year-Ahead and Multiyear-Ahead Macroeconomic Forecasting," by P. W. Otter, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 10, No. 4 (Oct., 1992), pp. 470-471