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用小波分析沿岸次潮汐海平面波动AI 解读

Subtidal coastal sea level fluctuations affect coastal ecosystems and the consequences of destructive events such as tsunamis. We analyze a time series of subtidal fluctuations at Crescent City, California, during 1980–1991 using the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT). Our analysis shows that the variability in these fluctuations depends on the season for scales of 32 days and less. We show how the MODWT characterizes nonstationary behavior succinctly and how…

用 TSMARS 建模海表温度的长程依赖、非线性与周期现象AI 解读

We analyze a time series of 20 years of daily sea surface temperatures measured off the California coast. The temperatures exhibit quite complicated features, such as effects on many different time scales, nonlinear effects, and long-range dependence. We show how a time series version of the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) algorithm, TSMARS, can be used to obtain univariate adaptive spline threshold autoregressive models that capture many of the physical…

个体与总量食品消费函数的对应关系：美国与荷兰的证据AI 解读

This paper provides evidence from the US and Dutch budget surveys that income elasticity of family food consumption is a function of family income and other observable characteristics of the household. It also finds that the conditional variance of family food consumption depends on family income. This complicated pattern of dependence of family food consumption on income breaks the exact correspondence between the family and the aggregate food consumption functions. Simple…

采用新信息复杂度方法的食品消费实证计量建模AI 解读

This paper is concerned with empirical econometric modeling of food consumption in the USA and the Netherlands. Using autoregressive distributed lag models (ADLs) selected via the Informational Complexity (ICOMP) criterion, we study the relationship between food consumption and income. Whether food consumption obeys the homogeneity postulate is tested using information criteria. Using information-theoretic techniques, we identify the optimal information set and lag order for…

个体与总量食品消费函数的对应关系：美国与荷兰的证据AI 解读

This paper provides evidence from the US and Dutch budget surveys that income elasticity of family food consumption is a function of family income and other observable characteristics of the household. It also finds that the conditional variance of family food consumption depends on family income. This complicated pattern of dependence of family food consumption on income breaks the exact correspondence between the family and the aggregate food consumption functions. Simple…

自回归时间序列面板数据的贝叶斯分析AI 解读

The authors describe a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyze autoregressive time series panel data. They develop two algorithms using Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods, a restricted algorithm that enforces stationarity or nonstationarity conditions on the series, and an unrestricted algorithm that does not. Two examples show that restricting stationary series to be stationary provides no new information but restricting nonstationary series to be stationary leads to…

通过条件高斯动态模型进行多项时间序列的贝叶斯预测AI 解读

We consider inference in the class of conditionally Gaussian dynamic models for nonnormal multivariate time series. In such models, data are represented as drawn from nonnormal sampling distributions whose parameters are related both through time and hierarchically across several multivariate series. A key example—the main focus here—is time series of multinomial observations, a common occurrence in sociological and demographic studies involving categorical count data.…

计量经济学、金融及其他领域中的时间序列模型AI 解读

Statistical Aspects of ARCH and Scholastic Volatility Likelihood-Based Inference for Cointegration of Some Non-Stationary Time Series Forecasting in Macroeconomics Longitudinal Panel Data: An Overview of Current Methodology

摘要暂缺

大西洋鳕鱼种群年龄构成的序约束贝叶斯估计AI 解读

The management of a commercial fishery often requires estimates of the age composition. These estimates are typically based on age and length data obtained from sampling the commercial landings from the fishery and the catches from a research vessel survey. We use data from annual research cruises of Georges Bank conducted by the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans to show how inferences for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) can be improved. Traditionally, two-phase…

基于因果式残差正交化的向量自回归脉冲响应函数AI 解读

A data-determined method for testing structural models of the errors in vector autoregressions is discussed. The method can easily be combined with prior economic knowledge and a subjective analysis of data characteristics to yield valuable information concerning model selection and specification. In one dimension, it turns out that standard t statistics can be used to test the various overidentifying restrictions that are implied by a model. In another dimension, the method…

大西洋鳕鱼种群年龄组成的序约束贝叶斯估计AI 解读

The management of a commercial fishery often requires estimates of the age composition. These estimates are typically based on age and length data obtained from sampling the commercial landings from the fishery and the catches from a research vessel survey. We use data from annual research cruises of Georges Bank conducted by the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans to show how inferences for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) can be improved. Traditionally, two-phase…

贝叶斯 VAR 模型估计与推断的数值方法AI 解读

In Bayesian analysis of vector autoregressive models, and especially in forecasting applications, the Minnesota prior of Litterman is frequently used. In many cases other prior distributions provided better forecasts and are preferable from a theoretical standpoint. Several of these priors require numerical methods in order to evaluate the posterior distribution. Different ways of implementing Monte Carlo integration are considered. It is found that Gibbs sampling performs…

通过最小化多步预测误差拟合时间序列模型：频域方法AI 解读

Summary This paper brings together two topics in the estimation of time series forecasting models: the use of the multistep-ahead error sum of squares as a criterion to be minimized and frequency domain methods for carrying out this minimization. The methods are developed for the wide class of time series models having a spectrum which is linear in unknown coefficients. This includes the IMA(1, 1) model for which the common exponentially weigh-ted moving average predictor is…

多元线性回归中的多响应预测AI 解读

Summary We look at the problem of predicting several response variables from the same set of explanatory variables. The question is how to take advantage of correlations between the response variables to improve predictive accuracy compared with the usual procedure of doing individual regressions of each response variable on the common set of predictor variables. A new procedure is introduced called the curds and whey method. Its use can substantially reduce prediction…

ARCH与双线性模型：非线性依赖的竞争解释AI 解读

This paper consider whether the wide acceptance of ARCH models may be at the expense of other nonlinear processes, such as bilinear models. The authors first pose a joint test for ARCH and bilinearity. A nonnested test is then suggested. The tests are then applied to three series. When GARCH models are taken as the null hypothesis, the authors fail to reject it. However, when bilinearity is taken as the null, it is rejected in two cases. Also, an out-of-sample forecasting…

GARCH过程中的马尔可夫转换与股市波动率均值回归AI 解读

This article introduces four models of conditional heteroscedasticity that contain Markov-switching parameters to examine their multiperiod stock-market volatility forecasts as predictions of options-implied volatilities. The volatility model that best predicts the behavior of the options-implied volatilities allows the Student-t degrees-of-freedom parameter to switch such that the conditional variance and kurtosis are subject to discrete shifts. The half-life of the most…

永久性冲击、暂时性冲击与英国经济周期AI 解读

In this paper the business cycle properties of UK data are investigated using a VAR technique. A Real Business Cycle (RBC) model is formulated. The model includes both permanent and transitory shocks to technology. The business cycle properties of the data and the model are investigated by deriving the expected changes over various forecast horizons from a VAR model. It is found, contrary to evidence in Rotemberg and Woodford (1996), that the model can account for many…

永久与暂时冲击及英国经济周期AI 解读

In this paper the business cycle properties of UK data are investigated using a VAR technique. A Real Business Cycle (RBC) model is formulated. The model includes both permanent and transitory shocks to technology. The business cycle properties of the data and the model are investigated by deriving the expected changes over various forecast horizons from a VAR model. It is found, contrary to evidence in Rotemberg and Woodford (1996), that the model can account for many…

生命历程分析中的序贯预测模型评估AI 解读

We extend the prequential approach introduced by A. P. Dawid to continuous time marked pint processes. A prequential forecasting system is expressed by means of the stochastic intensities of the point process. The exact independence and 1-exponentiality of the derived compensators are used to assess the predictive performance of the model and the inferential procedure. Some key words : Bayesian inference; Goodness of fit; Marked pint process; Markov chain Monte Carlo;…

面向多期预测的模型选择AI 解读

Model selection for time series data based upon joint multiperiod forecasts is investigated. Some popular selection criteria are applied to a suitable multivariate regression model to create new selection criteria. Monte Carlo experiments show that the proposed selection procedure performs more efficiently than the corresponding regular procedure, particularly when the data are generated from a high order autoregressive model. Analysis of some real data supports the…

基于频域自助法的传递函数模型拟合检验AI 解读

Transfer function models have been used for modeling the linear dependence between stationary time series and for improving the accuracy of forecasts. This article proposes a method to evaluate the fit of such a model by comparing certain frequency domain functionals of the model with those of the data using a model-based bootstrap algorithm. The method works by checking the ability of the fitted model to reproduce the dynamic relationship and the linear dependence structure…

预测振荡模式：随机场时空分解方法的综合AI 解读

Spatial-temporal decompositions of climatologic fields have been obtained using a range of techniques, including principal component analysis (PCA) and principal oscillation patterns (POPS). PCA decompositions are forced to be correlated to the original field, but they may not capture interesting aspects of temporal variation. On the other hand, POPS decompositions focus on temporal variation but are not forced to correlate to the field. Here we introduce a hybrid of these…

基于频域自助法的传递函数模型拟合检验AI 解读

Transfer function models have been used for modeling the linear dependence between stationary time series and for improving the accuracy of forecasts. This article proposes a method to evaluate the fit of such a model by comparing certain frequency domain functionals of the model with those of the data using a model-based bootstrap algorithm. The method works by checking the ability of the fitted model to reproduce the dynamic relationship and the linear dependence structure…