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含共同因子的大型动态面板模型的估计效率AI 解读

This paper deals with asymptotically efficient estimation in exchangeable nonlinear dynamic panel models with common unobservable factors. These models are relevant for applications to large portfolios of credits, corporate bonds, or life insurance contracts. For instance, the Asymptotic Risk Factor (ARF) model is recommended in the current regulation in Finance (Basel II and Basel III) and Insurance (Solvency II) for risk prediction and computation of the required capital.…

椭圆对称分布下空间符号协方差矩阵的渐近不可容许性AI 解读

The asymptotic efficiency of the spatial sign covariance matrix relative to affine equivariant estimators of scatter is studied. In particular, the spatial sign covariance matrix is shown to be asymptotically inadmissible, i.e., the asymptotic covariance matrix of the consistency-corrected spatial sign covariance matrix is uniformly larger than that of its affine equivariant counterpart, namely Tyler’s scatter matrix. Although the spatial sign covariance matrix has often…

用于密度估计的潜在因子模型AI 解读

Abstract: Although discrete mixture modeling has formed the backbone of the literature on Bayesian density estimation, there are some well known disadvantages. We propose an alternative class of priors based on random nonlinear functions of a uniform latent variable with an additive residual. The induced prior for the density is shown to have desirable properties including ease of centering on an initial guess for the density, large support, posterior consistency and…

因子扩展预测模型的结构稳定性检验AI 解读

Mild factor loading instability, particularly if sufficiently independent across the different constituent variables, does not affect the estimation of the number of factors, nor subsequent estimation of the factors themselves (see e.g. Stock and Watson (2009)). This result does not hold in the presence of large common breaks in the factor loadings, however. In this case, information criteria overestimate the number of breaks. Additionally, estimated factors are no longer…

收益偏度横截面中的定价风险与非对称波动AI 解读

We investigate the sources of skewness in aggregate risk factors and the cross section of stock returns. In an ICAPM setting with conditional volatility, we find theoretical time series predictions on the relationships among volatility, returns, and skewness for priced risk factors. Market returns resemble these predictions; however, size, book-to-market, and momentum factor returns are not always consistent with our predictions. We find evidence that size and book-to-market…

因子增强回归模型的自助法AI 解读

This paper proposes and theoretically justifies bootstrap methods for regressions where some of the regressors are factors estimated from a large panel of data. We derive our results under the assumption that T/N→c, where 0≤c<∞ (N and T are the cross-sectional and the time series dimensions, respectively), thus allowing for the possibility that the factor estimation error enters the limiting distribution of the OLS estimator as an asymptotic bias term (as was recently…

SUMMARY A new estimator is proposed for linear triangular systems, where identification results from the model errors following a bivariate and diagonal GARCH(1,1) process with potentially time‐varying error covariances. This estimator applies when traditional instruments are unavailable. I demonstrate its usefulness on asset pricing models like the capital asset pricing model and Fama–French three‐factor model. In the context of a standard two‐pass cross‐sectional…

神经影像表型与遗传标记的贝叶斯广义低秩回归AI 解读

We propose a Bayesian generalized low rank regression model (GLRR) for the analysis of both high-dimensional responses and covariates. This development is motivated by performing searches for associations between genetic variants and brain imaging phenotypes. GLRR integrates a low rank matrix to approximate the high-dimensional regression coefficient matrix of GLRR and a dynamic factor model to model the high-dimensional covariance matrix of brain imaging phenotypes. Local…

具有跳跃不连续性的神经影像空间变系数模型AI 解读

Motivated by recent work on studying massive imaging data in various neuroimaging studies, we propose a novel spatially varying coefficient model (SVCM) to capture the varying association between imaging measures in a three-dimensional (3D) volume (or 2D surface) with a set of covariates. Two stylized features of neuorimaging data are the presence of multiple piecewise smooth regions with unknown edges and jumps and substantial spatial correlations. To specifically account…

时空点过程的函数主成分分析及疾病监测应用AI 解读

In disease surveillance applications, the disease events are modeled by spatio-temporal point processes. We propose a new class of semiparametric generalized linear mixed model for such data, where the event rate is related to some known risk factors and some unknown latent random effects. We model the latent spatio-temporal process as spatially correlated functional data, and propose Poisson maximum likelihood and composite likelihood methods based on spline approximations…

主成分与共同主成分的高效秩估计AI 解读

We propose rank-based estimators of principal components, both in the one-sample and, under the assumption of common principal components, in the m-sample cases. Those estimators are obtained via a rank-based version of Le Cam’s one-step method, combined with an estimation of cross-information quantities. Under arbitrary elliptical distributions with, in the m-sample case, possibly heterogeneous radial densities, those R-estimators remain root-n consistent and asymptotically…

用稀疏线性规划优化随机试验总体与两个亚组的治疗效应检验AI 解读

We propose new, optimal methods for analyzing randomized trials, when it is suspected that treatment effects may differ in two predefined subpopulations. Such subpopulations could be defined by a biomarker or risk factor measured at baseline. The goal is to simultaneously learn which subpopulations benefit from an experimental treatment, while providing strong control of the familywise Type I error rate. We formalize this as a multiple testing problem and show it is…

使用组桥估计量选择近似因子模型的正确因子数：大面板情形AI 解读

This article proposes a group bridge estimator to select the correct number of factors in approximate factor models. It contributes to the literature on shrinkage estimation and factor models by extending the conventional bridge estimator from a single equation to a large panel context. The proposed estimator can consistently estimate the factor loadings of relevant factors and shrink the loadings of irrelevant factors to zero with a probability approaching one. Hence, it…

可能弱识别的动态随机一般均衡模型推断AI 解读

This paper considers inference in log-linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with weakly (including un-) identified parameters. The framework allows for analysis using only part of the spectrum, say at the business cycle frequencies. First, we characterize weak identification from a frequency domain perspective and propose a score test for the structural parameter vector based on the frequency domain approximation to the Gaussian likelihood. The…

病例队列设计的自助法AI 解读

The case-cohort design facilitates economical investigation of risk factors in a large survival study, with covariate data collected only from the cases and a simple random subset of the full cohort. Methods that accommodate the design have been developed for various semiparametric models, but most inference procedures are based on asymptotic distribution theory. Such inference can be cumbersome to derive and implement, and does not permit confidence band construction. While…

超高维数据中样本特征值、特征向量与主成分得分的收敛AI 解读

The development of high-throughput biomedical technologies has led to increased interest in the analysis of high-dimensional data where the number of features is much larger than the sample size. In this paper, we investigate principal component analysis under the ultra-high dimensional regime, where both the number of features and the sample size increase as the ratio of the two quantities also increases. We bridge the existing results from the finite and the high-dimension…

再生核希尔伯特空间中的结构化函数型加性回归AI 解读

Summary Functional additive models provide a flexible yet simple framework for regressions involving functional predictors. The utilization of a data-driven basis in an additive rather than linear structure naturally extends the classical functional linear model. However, the critical issue of selecting non-linear additive components has been less studied. In this work, we propose a new regularization framework for structure estimation in the context of reproducing kernel…

超大协方差矩阵稀疏贝叶斯因子模型的后验收缩AI 解读

Sparse Bayesian factor models are routinely implemented for parsimonious dependence modeling and dimensionality reduction in high-dimensional applications. We provide theoretical understanding of such Bayesian procedures in terms of posterior convergence rates in inferring high-dimensional covariance matrices where the dimension can be larger than the sample size. Under relevant sparsity assumptions on the true covariance matrix, we show that commonly-used point mass mixture…

高维非平稳时间序列的广义动态半参数因子模型AI 解读

High‐dimensional non‐stationary time series, which reveal both complex trends and stochastic behaviour, occur in many scientific fields, e.g. macroeconomics, finance, neuroeconomics, etc. To model these, we propose a generalized dynamic semi‐parametric factor model with a two‐step estimation procedure. After choosing smoothed functional principal components as space functions (factor loadings), we extract various temporal trends by employing variable selection techniques for…

大型因子模型中大幅结构突变的检测AI 解读

Time invariance of factor loadings is a standard assumption in the analysis of large factor models. Yet, this assumption may be restrictive unless parameter shifts are mild (i.e., local to zero). In this paper we develop a new testing procedure to detect big breaks in these loadings at either known or unknown dates. It relies upon testing for parameter breaks in a regression of one of the factors estimated by Principal Components analysis on the remaining estimated factors,…

事件发生时间数据的风险估计：妇女健康倡议应用AI 解读

Accurate and individualized risk prediction is critical for population control of chronic diseases such as cancer and cardiovascular disease. Large cohort studies provide valuable resources for building risk prediction models, as the risk factors are collected at the baseline and subjects are followed over time until disease occurrence or termination of the study. However, for rare diseases the baseline risk may not be estimated reliably based on cohort data only, due to…

出生队列生育率的贝叶斯预测AI 解读

There are signs that fertility in rich countries may have stopped declining, but this depends critically on whether women currently in reproductive ages are postponing or reducing lifetime fertility. Analysis of average completed family sizes requires forecasts of remaining fertility for women born 1970–1995. We propose a Bayesian model for fertility that incorporates a priori information about patterns over age and time. We use a new dataset, the Human Fertility Database…

函数线性模型的自适应整体检验AI 解读

This article studies global testing of the slope function in functional linear regression models. A major challenge in functional global testing is to choose the dimension of projection when approximating the functional regression model by a finite dimensional multivariate linear regression model. We develop a new method that simultaneously tests the slope vectors in a sequence of functional principal components regression models. The sequence of models being tested is…

评论AI 解读

It is a pleasure to provide some comments on the excellent and topical article by Hu and Tsay (2014).The article extends principal component analysis (PCA) to principal volatility component analysi...