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对股票收益横截面进行收缩估计AI 解读

We construct a robust stochastic discount factor (SDF) summarizing the joint explanatory power of a large number of cross-sectional stock return predictors. Our method achieves robust out-of-sample performance in this high-dimensional setting by imposing an economically motivated prior on SDF coefficients that shrinks contributions of low-variance principal components of the candidate characteristics-based factors. We find that characteristics-sparse SDFs formed from a few…

消费型资产定价的稳健推断AI 解读

ABSTRACT The reliability of traditional asset pricing tests depends on: (i) the correlations between asset returns and factors; (ii) the time series sample size T compared to the number of assets N . For macro‐risk factors, like consumption growth, (i) and (ii) are often such that traditional tests cannot be trusted. We extend the Gibbons‐Ross‐Shanken statistic to test identification of risk premia and construct their 95% confidence sets. These sets are wide or unbounded…

基于数据深度的非参数缺失值插补AI 解读

We present single imputation method for missing values which borrows the idea of data depth—a measure of centrality defined for an arbitrary point of a space with respect to a probability distribution or data cloud. This consists in iterative maximization of the depth of each observation with missing values, and can be employed with any properly defined statistical depth function. For each single iteration, imputation reverts to optimization of quadratic, linear, or…

金融市场的分位数共同变动：含不可观测异质性的面板分位数模型AI 解读

This article introduces a new procedure for analyzing the quantile co-movement of a large number of financial time series based on a large-scale panel data model with factor structures. The proposed method attempts to capture the unobservable heterogeneity of each of the financial time series based on sensitivity to explanatory variables and to the unobservable factor structure. In our model, the dimension of the common factor structure varies across quantiles, and the…

高维资产条件时变因子模型中的 Alpha 检验AI 解读

For conditional time-varying factor models with high-dimensional assets, this article proposes a high-dimensional alpha (HDA) test to assess whether there exist abnormal returns on securities (or portfolios) over the theoretical expected returns. To employ this test effectively, a constant coefficient test is also introduced. It examines the validity of constant alphas and factor loadings. Simulation studies and an empirical example are presented to illustrate the finite…

使用估计因子检验即时预测的单调性AI 解读

This article proposes a test to determine whether “big data” nowcasting methods, which have become an important tool to many public and private institutions, are monotonically improving as new information becomes available. The test is the first to formalize existing evaluation procedures from the nowcasting literature. We place particular emphasis on models involving estimated factors, since factor-based methods are a leading case in the high-dimensional empirical…

含共同因子面板的一种新结构突变检验AI 解读

Summary This paper develops new tests against a structural break in panel data models with common factors when T is fixed, where T denotes the number of observations over time. For this class of models, the available tests against a structural break are valid only under the assumption that T is ‘large’. However, this may be a stringent requirement—more commonly so in datasets with annual time frequency, in which case the sample may cover a relatively long period even if T is…

通过动态因子模拟长期预测厄尔尼诺事件AI 解读

We propose a new forecasting procedure which particularly explores opportunities for improving the precision of medium and long-term forecasts of the Niño3.4 time series that is linked with the well-known El Niño phenomenon. This important climatic time series is subject to an intricate dynamic structure and is interrelated to other climatological variables. The procedure consists of three steps. First, a univariate time series model is considered for producing prediction…

This paper considers a class of generalized methods of moments (GMM) estimators for general dynamic panel models, allowing for weakly exogenous covariates and cross‐sectional dependence due to spatial lags, unspecified common shocks, and time‐varying interactive effects. We significantly expand the scope of the existing literature by allowing for endogenous time‐varying spatial weight matrices without imposing explicit structural assumptions on how the weights are formed. An…

Tyler 形状深度AI 解读

Summary In many problems from multivariate analysis, the parameter of interest is a shape matrix: a normalized version of the corresponding scatter or dispersion matrix. In this article we propose a notion of depth for shape matrices that involves data points only through their directions from the centre of the distribution. We refer to this concept as Tyler shape depth since the resulting estimator of shape, namely the deepest shape matrix, is the median-based counterpart…

内在黎曼函数型数据分析AI 解读

In this work we develop a novel and foundational framework for analyzing general Riemannian functional data, in particular a new development of tensor Hilbert spaces along curves on a manifold. Such spaces enable us to derive Karhunen–Loève expansion for Riemannian random processes. This framework also features an approach to compare objects from different tensor Hilbert spaces, which paves the way for asymptotic analysis in Riemannian functional data analysis. Built upon…

主特征子空间的分布式估计AI 解读

Principal component analysis (PCA) is fundamental to statistical machine learning. It extracts latent principal factors that contribute to the most variation of the data. When data are stored across multiple machines, however, communication cost can prohibit the computation of PCA in a central location and distributed algorithms for PCA are thus needed. This paper proposes and studies a distributed PCA algorithm: each node machine computes the top $K$ eigenvectors and…

噪声与无效率项均含横截面效应的新随机前沿模型AI 解读

This paper develops a new stochastic frontier model that allows for cross-sectional (spatial) correlation in both the noise and inefficiency terms, which are likely to be of a different nature. The main econometric novelty of the proposed model is that it can be estimated in a straightforward manner by maximum likelihood and non-linear least squares. The proposed model is useful when there are omitted but spatially correlated variables, the firms benefit from best practices…

We propose a new modeling approach for the cross section of returns. Our method, Instrumented Principal Component Analysis (IPCA), allows for latent factors and time-varying loadings by introducing observable characteristics that instrument for the unobservable dynamic loadings. If the characteristics/expected return relationship is driven by compensation for exposure to latent risk factors, IPCA will identify the corresponding latent factors. If no such factors exist, IPCA…

大型时变参数VAR：一种非参数方法AI 解读

Summary In this paper we introduce a nonparametric estimation method for a large Vector Autoregression (VAR) with time‐varying parameters. The estimators and their asymptotic distributions are available in closed form. This makes the method computationally efficient and capable of handling information sets as large as those typically handled by factor models and Factor Augmented VARs. When applied to the problem of forecasting key macroeconomic variables, the method…

小规模实验室验证集下多病原体监测数据的时空建模AI 解读

Many surveillance systems of infectious diseases are syndrome-based, capturing patients by clinical manifestation. Only a fraction of patients, mostly severe cases, undergo laboratory validation to identify the underlying pathogen. Motivated by the need to understand transmission dynamics and associate risk factors of enteroviruses causing the hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in China, we developed a Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling framework for surveillance data of…

利用校准最优基量化空间输出计算机模型的不确定性AI 解读

The calibration of complex computer codes using uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods is a rich area of statistical methodological development. When applying these techniques to simulators with spatial output, it is now standard to use principal component decomposition to reduce the dimensions of the outputs in order to allow Gaussian process emulators to predict the output for calibration. We introduce the “terminal case,” in which the model cannot reproduce observations…

使用单侧动态主成分预测多条时间序列AI 解读

We define one-sided dynamic principal components (ODPC) for time series as linear combinations of the present and past values of the series that minimize the reconstruction mean squared error. Usually dynamic principal components have been defined as functions of past and future values of the series and therefore they are not appropriate for forecasting purposes. On the contrary, it is shown that the ODPC introduced in this article can be successfully used for forecasting…

含交互固定效应的半参数单指标面板模型：理论与实践AI 解读

In this paper, we propose a single-index panel data model with unobserved multiple interactive fixed effects. This model has the advantages of being flexible and of being able to allow for common shocks and their heterogeneous impacts on cross sections, thus making it suitable for the investigation of many economic issues. The asymptotic theories are established accordingly. Our Monte Carlo simulations show that our methodology works well for large N and T cases. In our…

函数型时间序列中基于矩的时间依赖概念AI 解读

This paper addresses the fundamental topic of time dependence for time series when data points are given as functions. We construct a notion of time dependence through the projections on the basis system extracted from the principal components of normalized sums. This allows us to adapt various scalar time series techniques to the functional data context. In particular, we define dependence based on the autocovariances and cumulants of the projections, covering short and…

协变量信息不一致研究的多元回归广义元分析AI 解读

Summary Meta-analysis is widely popular for synthesizing information on common parameters of interest across multiple studies because of its logistical convenience and statistical efficiency. We develop a generalized meta-analysis approach to combining information on multivariate regression parameters across multiple studies that have varying levels of covariate information. Using algebraic relationships among regression parameters in different dimensions, we specify a set…

动态收缩过程AI 解读

Summary We propose a novel class of dynamic shrinkage processes for Bayesian time series and regression analysis. Building on a global–local framework of prior construction, in which continuous scale mixtures of Gaussian distributions are employed for both desirable shrinkage properties and computational tractability, we model dependence between the local scale parameters. The resulting processes inherit the desirable shrinkage behaviour of popular global–local priors, such…

商业与住宅抵押贷款违约：带脆弱性因子的空间依赖AI 解读

We investigate the spatial dependence between commercial and residential mortgage defaults. A new class of observation-driven frailty factor models is introduced to do so. The idea of dynamic parameters embedded in the class of GAS models is utilized to estimate dynamic models of default risk with potentially multiple factors which are driven by stratified grouping of large panels of mortgage loan records. The score dynamics in the models is driven by so-called generalized…

高维多变量已实现波动率估计AI 解读

We provide a new factor-based estimator of the realized covolatility matrix, applicable in situations when the number of assets is large and the high-frequency data are contaminated with microstructure noises. Our estimator relies on the assumption of a factor structure for the noise component, separate from the latent systematic risk factors that characterize the cross-sectional variation in the frictionless returns. The new estimator provides theoretically more efficient…