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噪声下函数局部极值的半参数贝叶斯推断AI 解读

There is a wide range of applications where the local extrema of a function are the key quantity of interest. However, there is surprisingly little work on methods to infer local extrema with uncertainty quantification in the presence of noise. By viewing the function as an infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter, a semiparametric formulation of this problem poses daunting challenges, both methodologically and theoretically, as (i) the number of local extrema may be unknown,…

层间依赖多层网络的一致社群检测AI 解读

Community detection in multi-layer networks, which aims at finding groups of nodes with similar connective patterns among all layers, has attracted tremendous interests in multi-layer network analysis. Most existing methods are extended from those for single-layer networks, which assume that different layers are independent. In this article, we propose a novel community detection method in multi-layer networks with inter-layer dependence, which integrates the stochastic…

动态矩阵恢复AI 解读

Matrix recovery from sparse observations is an extensively studied topic emerging in various applications, such as recommendation system and signal processing, which includes the matrix completion and compressed sensing models as special cases. In this article, we propose a general framework for dynamic matrix recovery of low-rank matrices that evolve smoothly over time. We start from the setting that the observations are independent across time, then extend to the setting…

高斯链图模型的可识别性与一致估计AI 解读

The chain graph model admits both undirected and directed edges in one graph, where symmetric conditional dependencies are encoded via undirected edges and asymmetric causal relations are encoded via directed edges. Though frequently encountered in practice, the chain graph model has been largely under investigated in literature, possibly due to the lack of identifiability conditions between undirected and directed edges. In this paper, we first establish a set of novel…

极值随机森林AI 解读

Classical methods for quantile regression fail in cases where the quantile of interest is extreme and only few or no training data points exceed it. Asymptotic results from extreme value theory can be used to extrapolate beyond the range of the data, and several approaches exist that use linear regression, kernel methods or generalized additive models. Most of these methods break down if the predictor space has more than a few dimensions or if the regression function of…

基于复合似然的时空过程变点检测AI 解读

This article develops a unified and computationally efficient method for change-point estimation along the time dimension in a nonstationary spatio-temporal process. By modeling a nonstationary spatio-temporal process as a piecewise stationary spatio-temporal process, we consider simultaneous estimation of the number and locations of change-points, and model parameters in each segment. A composite likelihood-based criterion is developed for change-point and parameter…

多元函数型时间序列的图主成分分析AI 解读

In this paper, we consider multivariate functional time series with a two-way dependence structure: a serial dependence across time points and a graphical interaction among the multiple functions within each time point. We develop the notion of dynamic weak separability, a more general condition than those assumed in literature, and use it to characterize the two-way structure in multivariate functional time series. Based on the proposed weak separability, we develop a…

稳健验证：分布漂移下的预测不确定性保障AI 解读

While the traditional viewpoint in machine learning and statistics assumes training and testing samples come from the same population, practice belies this fiction. One strategy—coming from robust statistics and optimization—is thus to build a model robust to distributional perturbations. In this article, we take a different approach to describe procedures for robust predictive inference, where a model provides uncertainty estimates on its predictions rather than point…

多个分布之间的核差异度量AI 解读

Given M≥2 distributions defined on a general measurable space, we introduce a nonparametric (kernel) measure of multi-sample dissimilarity (KMD)—a parameter that quantifies the difference between the M distributions. The population KMD, which takes values between 0 and 1, is 0 if and only if all the M distributions are the same, and 1 if and only if all the distributions are mutually singular. Moreover, KMD possesses many properties commonly associated with f-divergences…

基于 Kiefer–Wolfowitz 方法的随机优化在线统计推断AI 解读

This article investigates the problem of online statistical inference of model parameters in stochastic optimization problems via the Kiefer-Wolfowitz algorithm with random search directions. We first present the asymptotic distribution for the Polyak-Ruppert-averaging type Kiefer-Wolfowitz (AKW) estimators, whose asymptotic covariance matrices depend on the distribution of search directions and the function-value query complexity. The distributional result reflects the…

多重比较的分割 Knockoff：控制方向性错误发现率AI 解读

Multiple comparisons in hypothesis testing often encounter structural constraints in various applications. For instance, in structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Alzheimer’s Disease, the focus extends beyond examining atrophic brain regions to include comparisons of anatomically adjacent regions. These constraints can be modeled as linear transformations of parameters, where the sign patterns play a crucial role in estimating directional effects. This class of problems,…

集群随机实验中模型稳健且有效的协变量调整AI 解读

Cluster-randomized experiments are increasingly used to evaluate interventions in routine practice conditions, and researchers often adopt model-based methods with covariate adjustment in the statistical analyses. However, the validity of model-based covariate adjustment is unclear when the working models are misspecified, leading to ambiguity of estimands and risk of bias. In this article, we first adapt two conventional model-based methods, generalized estimating equations…

利用 Gram–Schmidt Walk 设计平衡随机实验协变量AI 解读

The design of experiments involves a compromise between covariate balance and robustness.This article provides a formalization of this tradeoff and describes an experimental design that allows experimenters to navigate it.The design is specified by a robustness parameter that bounds the worst-case mean squared error of an estimator of the average treatment effect.Subject to the experimenter's desired level of robustness, the design aims to simultaneously balance all linear…

存在偏差时的自助法推断AI 解读

We consider bootstrap inference for estimators which are (asymptotically) biased. We show that, even when the bias term cannot be consistently estimated, valid inference can be obtained by proper implementations of the bootstrap. Specifically, we show that the prepivoting approach of Beran (1987, 1988), originally proposed to deliver higher-order refinements, restores bootstrap validity by transforming the original bootstrap p-value into an asymptotically uniform random…

利用耦合界定 Wasserstein 距离AI 解读

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides asymptotically consistent estimates of intractable posterior expectations as the number of iterations tends to infinity. However, in large data applications, MCMC can be computationally expensive per iteration. This has catalyzed interest in approximating MCMC in a manner that improves computational speed per iteration but does not produce asymptotically consistent estimates. In this article, we propose estimators based on couplings…

部分干扰下的最低资源阈值政策AI 解读

When developing policies for prevention of infectious diseases, policymakers often set specific, outcome-oriented targets to achieve. For example, when developing a vaccine allocation policy, policymakers may want to distribute them so that at least a certain fraction of individuals in a census block are disease-free and spillover effects due to interference within blocks are accounted for. The article proposes methods to estimate a block-level treatment policy that achieves…

存在不依从与未知干扰时的因果推断AI 解读

We consider a causal inference model in which individuals interact in a social network and they may not comply with the assigned treatments. In particular, we suppose that the form of network interference is unknown to researchers. To estimate meaningful causal parameters in this situation, we introduce a new concept of exposure mapping, which summarizes potentially complicated spillover effects into a fixed dimensional statistic of instrumental variables. We investigate…

高维混杂模型同时推断的去相关与去偏方法AI 解读

Motivated by the simultaneous association analysis with the presence of latent confounders, this article studies the large-scale hypothesis testing problem for the high-dimensional confounded linear models with both non-asymptotic and asymptotic false discovery control. Such model covers a wide range of practical settings where both the response and the predictors may be confounded. In the presence of the high-dimensional predictors and the unobservable confounders, the…

通过预测推断实现最优子抽样AI 解读

In the big data era, subsampling or sub-data selection techniques are often adopted to extract a fraction of informative individuals from the massive data. Existing subsampling algorithms focus mainly on obtaining a representative subset to achieve the best estimation accuracy under a given class of models. In this article, we consider a semi-supervised setting wherein a small or moderate sized “labeled” data is available in addition to a much larger sized “unlabeled” data.…

高维半监督学习的最优与安全估计AI 解读

We consider the estimation problem in high-dimensional semi-supervised learning. Our goal is to investigate when and how the unlabeled data can be exploited to improve the estimation of the regression parameters of linear model in light of the fact that such linear models may be misspecified in data analysis. We first establish the minimax lower bound for parameter estimation in the semi-supervised setting, and show that this lower bound cannot be achieved by supervised…

面向始终有效高维动态定价的在线正则化AI 解读

–Devising a dynamic pricing policy with always valid online statistical learning procedures is an important and as yet unresolved problem. Most existing dynamic pricing policies, which focus on the faithfulness of adopted customer choice models, exhibit a limited capability for adapting to the online uncertainty of learned statistical models during the pricing process. In this article, we propose a novel approach for designing a dynamic pricing policy based on regularized…

贝叶斯样条隐马尔可夫模型及其活动与睡眠分析应用AI 解读

B-spline-based hidden Markov models employ B-splines to specify the emission distributions, offering a more flexible modelling approach to data than conventional parametric HMMs. We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, enabling the simultaneous estimation of all unknown model parameters including the number of states. A parsimonious knot configuration of the B-splines is identified by the use of a trans-dimensional Markov chain sampling algorithm, while model…

非参数与高维模型中的贝叶斯可忽略性是一种信息性先验AI 解读

In problems with large amounts of missing data one must model two distinct data generating processes: the outcome process, which generates the response, and the missing data mechanism, which determines the data we observe. Under the ignorability condition of Rubin, however, likelihood-based inference for the outcome process does not depend on the missing data mechanism so that only the former needs to be estimated; partially because of this simplification, ignorability is…

通过度量空间中的度量分布函数开展非参数统计推断AI 解读

The distribution function is essential in statistical inference and connected with samples to form a directed closed loop by the correspondence theorem in measure theory and the Glivenko-Cantelli and Donsker properties. This connection creates a paradigm for statistical inference. However, existing distribution functions are defined in Euclidean spaces and are no longer convenient to use in rapidly evolving data objects of complex nature. It is imperative to develop the…