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基于日内蜡烛图影线的已实现方差估计AI 解读

We develop a novel nonparametric estimator of integrated variance by summing up the squared wick lengths of intraday candlesticks over a fixed time interval. The proposed wick-based estimator is robust to short-lived extreme price movements, such as gradual jumps and flash crashes. We investigate the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator, and show that its asymptotic variance is about four times smaller than the state-of-the-art differenced-return volatility (DV)…

一般缺失模式下高维因子模型的推断AI 解读

This paper establishes the inferential theory for the least squares estimation of large factor models with missing data. We propose a unified framework for asymptotic analysis of factor models that covers a wide range of missing patterns, including heterogenous random missing, selection on covariates/factors/loadings, block/staggered missing, mixed frequency and ragged edge. We establish the average convergence rates of the estimated factor space and loading space, the limit…

利用经验能量距离检测函数型数据变点AI 解读

We propose a novel family of test statistics to detect the presence of changepoints in a sequence of dependent, possibly multivariate, functional-valued observations. Our approach allows to test for a very general class of changepoints, including the “classical” case of changes in the mean, and even changes in the whole distribution. Our statistics are based on a generalisation of the empirical energy distance; we propose weighted functionals of the energy distance process,…

多项数据排名的有限样本与大样本推断：政党排名应用AI 解读

It is common to rank different categories by means of preferences that are revealed through data on choices. A prominent example is the ranking of political candidates or parties using the estimated share of support each one receives in surveys or polls about political attitudes. Since these rankings are computed using estimates of the share of support rather than the true share of support, there may be considerable uncertainty concerning the true ranking of the political…

交互固定效应与短面板下的动态处理效应估计AI 解读

We study the estimation and inference of dynamic average treatment effect parameters when parallel trends holds conditional on interactive fixed effects and where units enter into treatment at different time periods. Our proposed generalized method of moments estimator consists of two parts: first, we estimate the unobserved time effects by applying the fixed-T consistent quasi-long-differencing estimator of Ahn et al., (2013) to the never-treated group. Second, we estimate…

分组固定效应模型的简便估计方法AI 解读

This paper introduces a new fixed effects estimator for linear panel data models with clustered time patterns of unobserved heterogeneity. The method avoids non-convex and combinatorial optimization by combining a preliminary consistent estimator of the slope coefficient, an agglomerative pairwise-differencing clustering of cross-sectional units, and a pooled ordinary least squares regression. Asymptotic guarantees are established in a framework where T can grow at any power…

利用指数可逆性加速动态离散选择模型估计AI 解读

Many estimators of dynamic discrete choice models with persistent unobserved heterogeneity have desirable statistical properties but are computationally intensive. In this paper we propose a method to quicken estimation for a broad class of dynamic discrete choice problems by exploiting semiparametric index restrictions. Specifically, we propose an estimator for models whose reduced form parameters are invertible functions of one or more linear indices (Ahn et al., 2018) , a…

不依赖维度区分的变点检测AI 解读

Change point testing for high-dimensional data has attracted a lot of attention in statistics, econometrics and machine learning owing to the emergence of high-dimensional data with structural breaks from many fields. In practice, when the dimension is less than the sample size but is not small, it is often unclear whether a method that is tailored to high-dimensional data or simply a classical method that is developed and justified for low-dimensional data is preferred. In…

成对有效的工具变量AI 解读

Finding valid instruments is difficult. We propose Validity Set Instrumental Variable (VSIV) estimation, a method for estimating local average treatment effects (LATEs) in heterogeneous causal effect models when the instruments are partially invalid. We consider settings with pairwise valid instruments, that is, instruments that are valid for a subset of instrument value pairs. VSIV estimation exploits testable implications of instrument validity to remove invalid pairs and…

信任作为进入壁垒：金融科技采用的证据AI 解读

This paper studies the role of trust in incumbent lenders (banks) as an entry barrier to emerging FinTech lenders in credit markets. The empirical setting exploits the outbreak of the Wells Fargo scandal as a negative shock to borrowers’ trust in banks. Using a difference-in-differences framework, I find that increased exposure to the Wells Fargo scandal leads to an increase in the probability of borrowers using FinTech as mortgage originators. Utilizing political…

2024年 Denis Sargan 计量经济学奖AI 解读

The editors1 of The Econometrics Journal decided to award the 2024 Denis Sargan Econometrics Prize to Rahul Singh (Harvard) and Liyang Sun (CEMFI and UCL) for their article “Double robustness for complier parameters and a semi-parametric test for complier characteristics” in the January 2024 issue of The Econometrics Journal.2 Suppose that we are interested in the effects of a binary treatment on some outcome and allow these effects to vary arbitrarily in the studied…

GMM 模型中正态近似的一般诊断方法AI 解读

Summary This paper proposes a diagnostic method for evaluating the quality of the normal approximation in generalized method of moments (GMM) models through sampling from a quasi-Bayesian parameter distribution. GMM estimates are consistent and asymptotically normal under certain regularity conditions, and researchers often assume normality when conducting inference. However, the literature has identified several violations to the normal approximation, such as in cases with…

一步平滑样条工具变量回归AI 解读

Summary We extend nonparametric regression smoothing splines to a context where there is endogeneity and instrumental variables are available. Unlike popular existing estimators, the resulting estimator is one step and relies on a unique regularisation parameter. We derive rates of the convergence for the estimator and its first derivative, which are uniform in the support of the endogenous variable. We also address the issue of imposing monotonicity in estimation and extend…

非线性面板数据模型的共同相关效应估计AI 解读

Summary This paper focuses on estimating the coefficients and average partial effects of observed regressors in nonlinear panel data models with interactive fixed effects, using the common correlated effects framework. The proposed two-step estimation method involves applying principal component analysis to estimate the latent factors based on cross-sectional averages of the regressors in the first step, and jointly estimating the coefficients of the regressors and the…

伪面板最小距离估计中的部分匹配样本修正AI 解读

Summary Certain repeated cross-sectional data sets, such as the Current Population Survey (CPS), use special sampling designs by which samples from different times periods are partially matched. This paper proposes a correction to the optimal weighting matrix in minimum distance (MD) estimation of pseudo-panel models to account for such partially matched samples. This partially matched sample correction may be needed if the sample matching rate is nontrivial and, at the same…

时间序列回归中的稳健推断AI 解读

Summary Least squares regression with heteroskedasticity consistent standard errors (‘OLS-HC regression’) has proved very useful in cross-section environments. However, several major difficulties, which are generally overlooked, must be confronted when transferring the HC technology to time-series environments via heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard errors (‘OLS-HAC regression’). First, in plausible time-series environments, OLS parameter estimates can…

不可观测项对称性下进入博弈的识别与估计AI 解读

Summary This paper provides a new point identification and estimation method for two-player entry games with complete information, based on symmetry of unobservables. Neither equilibrium selection nor parametric distributional assumptions are required. In addition, a weaker support condition is used relative to the existing literature. Unlike other semiparametric estimators, the estimator proposed here is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent. A test of the required symmetry condition is…

二元潜变量模型的简便闭式估计AI 解读

Summary This paper develops a closed-form non-parametric estimator of the conditional distribution function for a binary outcome variable given an unobserved latent variable. This type of function is commonly used in models that involve measurement error and dynamic models with agent-specific unobserved heterogeneity. This paper presents a consistent extremum sieve estimator with the following advantages: (i) it has a closed-form expression for all the sieve coefficients,…

信息性抽样下的半参数自适应估计AI 解读

In probability sampling, sampling weights are often used to remove selection bias in the sample. The Horvitz–Thompson estimator is well known to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed; however, it is not necessarily efficient. This study derives the semiparametric efficiency bound for various target parameters by considering the survey weights as random variables and consequently proposes two semiparametric estimators with working models on the survey weights.…

交叉随机效应广义线性混合模型中最大似然估计量的渐近分布AI 解读

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) with crossed random effects is infamously known to present major challenges not only computationally but also theoretically. In fact, to date only consistency of the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) has been proved for GLMM with crosses random effects. We introduce a new technique in asymptotic analysis built on a second-order Laplace approximation (LA) of a conditional expectation, whose coefficients are carefully evaluated. The LA…

概率密度 L2 范数的自适应估计及相关问题（二）：基于预言方法的上界AI 解读

This is the second part of the research project initiated in Cleanthous, Georgiadis and Lepski (2024a). We deal with the problem of the adaptive estimation of the L2-norm of a probability density on Rd, d≥1, from independent observations. The unknown density is assumed to be uniformly bounded by unknown constant and to belong to the union of balls in the isotropic/anisotropic Nikolskii’s spaces. In Cleanthous, Georgiadis and Lepski (2024a), we have proved that the optimally…

概率密度 L2 范数的自适应估计及相关问题之一：下界AI 解读

We deal with the problem of the adaptive estimation of the L2–norm of a probability density on Rd, d≥1, from independent observations. The unknown density is assumed to be uniformly bounded and to belong to the union of balls in the isotropic/anisotropic Nikolskii’s spaces. We will show that the optimally adaptive estimators over the collection of considered functional classes do no exist. Also, in the framework of an abstract density model we present several generic lower…

由 Lipschitz 函数索引的经验过程强逼近AI 解读

This paper presents new uniform Gaussian strong approximations for empirical processes indexed by classes of functions based on d-variate random vectors (d≥1). First, a uniform Gaussian strong approximation is established for general empirical processes indexed by possibly Lipschitz functions, improving on previous results in the literature. In the setting considered by Rio (Probab. Theory Related Fields 98 (1994) 21–45), and if the function class is Lipschitzian, our result…

逐分量局部差分隐私约束下多元数据的极小极大速率AI 解读

Our research analyses the balance between maintaining privacy and preserving statistical accuracy when dealing with multivariate data that is subject to componentwise local differential privacy (CLDP). With CLDP, each component of the private data is made public through a separate privacy channel. This allows for varying levels of privacy protection for different components or for the privatization of each component by different entities, each with their own distinct privacy…