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光遗传学的非参数因果推断：动态策略的序贯偏离效应AI 解读

Optogenetics is a powerful neuroscience technique for studying how neural circuit manipulation affects behavior. Standard analysis conventions discard information and severely limit the scope of the causal questions that can be probed. To address this gap, we 1) draw connections to the causal inference literature on sequentially randomized experiments, 2) propose a non-parametric framework for analyzing "open-loop" (static regime) optogenetics behavioral experiments, 3)…

曲率可学习的双曲网络潜在空间模型AI 解读

Network data is ubiquitous in various scientific disciplines, including sociology, economics, and neuroscience. Latent space models are often employed in network data analysis, but the geometric effect of latent space curvature remains a significant, unresolved issue. In this work, we propose a hyperbolic network latent space model with a learnable curvature parameter. We theoretically justify that learning the optimal curvature is essential to minimizing the embedding error…

观察性析因研究中用于因果推断的平衡权重AI 解读

Many scientific questions in biomedical, environmental, and psychological research involve understanding the effects of multiple factors on outcomes. While factorial experiments are ideal for this purpose, randomized controlled treatment assignment is generally infeasible in many empirical studies. Therefore, investigators must rely on observational data, where drawing reliable causal inferences for multiple factors remains challenging. As the number of treatment…

稀疏高斯化典型相关分析及其投资组合应用AI 解读

Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is an important statistical technique that explores the linear relationships between two sets of variables. In this article, we propose a new generalization of CCA named sparse Gaussianized CCA (SGCCA) for high-dimensional data analysis. SGCCA has a number of favorable properties. First, it is conceptually easy to comprehend and efficient to implement. Second, it not only yields sparse and nested canonical vectors, but is also invariant…

带跟踪误差与权重约束的高维投资组合分析AI 解读

This paper explores the statistical properties of forming constrained optimal portfolios within a high-dimensional set of assets. We examine portfolios with tracking error constraints, those with simultaneous tracking error and weight restrictions, and portfolios constrained solely by weight. Tracking error measures portfolio performance against a benchmark (typically an index), while weight constraints determine asset allocation based on regulatory requirements or fund…

具有用户与商品双重情境信息的低秩在线动态选品AI 解读

As e-commerce expands, delivering real-time personalized recommendations from vast catalogs poses a critical challenge for retail platforms. Maximizing revenue requires careful consideration of both individual customer characteristics and available item features to continuously optimize assortments over time. In this article, we consider the dynamic assortment problem with dual contexts—user and item features. In high-dimensional scenarios, the quadratic growth of dimensions…

经济脆弱性具有状态依赖性AI 解读

Summary A novel dynamic model for joint estimation of multiple quantiles of a time series conditionally on a set of covariates is presented. The model preserves quantile monotonicity and allows for a clear interpretation of covariate effects across quantiles. Model parameters are estimated using a two-step M-estimator. The resulting estimator is consistent, and its finite sample properties are analyzed through simulations. The new model is used to study the impact of…

时间不一致模型的识别：以杀虫蚊帐为例AI 解读

Abstract Time-inconsistency may play a central role in explaining inter-temporal behaviour, particularly among poor households. However, little is known about the distribution of time-inconsistent agents, and time-preference parameters are typically not identified in standard dynamic choice models. We formulate a dynamic discrete choice model in an unobservedly heterogeneous population of possibly time-inconsistent agents. We provide conditions under which all population…

固定效应非参数面板模型的一致推断AI 解读

This article studies uniform inference on a function $g(\cdot )$ and its functionals in a nonparametric panel data model with fixed effects. The nonparametric panel model relaxes restrictions on time-series behavior by allowing for arbitrary types of stationary or nonstationary dependence (e.g., stationary mixingale, mildly stationary, or local-to-unity process). After removing the fixed effects via transformations, a sieve estimator is proposed, accompanied by Yurinskii’s…

含社会互动的内生处理模型：运动对自尊影响的应用AI 解读

We address the estimation of endogenous treatment models with social interactions in both the treatment and outcome equations. We model the interactions between individuals via a game theoretic approach based on discrete Bayesian games. We employ a nested pseudo joint likelihood algorithm when obtaining the model’s parameters and provide relevant treatment effects and procedures for their estimation. Our empirical application examines the impact of an individual’s exercise…

最优分配的统计推断之一：正则性及其含义AI 解读

In this paper, we develop a functional differentiability approach for solving statistical optimal allocation problems. We derive Hadamard differentiability of the value functions through analyzing the properties of the sorting operator using tools from geometric measure theory. Building on our Hadamard differentiability results, we apply the functional delta method to obtain the asymptotic properties of the value function process for the binary constrained optimal allocation…

动态选择下实验与观察数据结合的信息价值AI 解读

The Average Treatment Effect on the Treated Survivors (ATETS; Vikström et al., 2018) captures a composite effect of time-varying treatment and dynamic selection into the survivor population. We address the problem of identifying this treatment-effect parameter in the absence of long-term experimental data, utilizing available long-term observational data instead. This poses a nontrivial challenge in practice, as dynamic selection compounds static selection in observational…

多变量波动率结构变化的符号检验AI 解读

This paper proposes sign-based CUSUM and QS tests for structural changes in multivariate volatility using least absolute deviation (LAD) regression. These tests offer the advantage of relaxing moment conditions and providing greater robustness against various heavy-tailed innovations. To address potential power losses in the two basic statistics due to inaccurate estimation of the long-run variance (LRV) under alternatives, the paper then proposes two modified statistics…

含时变回归量与固定效应的持续期模型半参数估计AI 解读

In this paper, we consider estimation of an accelerated failure time model with time-varying regressors and fixed effects for duration data. We propose computationally simple profiled estimators for both fixed and random censoring cases. Under regularity conditions, we establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators. Simulation studies demonstrate that our estimators perform well in finite samples. Finally, we use data from the First Malaysian Family Life…

资产收益与期权需求的条件密度比模型估计AI 解读

Option-implied risk-neutral densities are widely used for constructing forward-looking risk measures. Meanwhile, risk aversion introduces a multiplicative pricing kernel between the risk-neutral and true conditional densities of the underlying asset’s return. This paper proposes a simple local estimator of the pricing kernel based on inverse density weighting. We characterize the asymptotic bias and variance of the estimator and its multiplicatively corrected density…

卷积 t 分布AI 解读

We introduce a family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions, termed convolution-t distributions, constructed as convolutions of heterogeneous multivariate t-distributions. Unlike commonly used heavy-tailed distributions, this family captures nonlinear dependencies, accommodates heterogeneous marginal distributions, and reveals cluster structures prevalent in economic data. Importantly, convolution-t distributions admit simple closed-form densities that facilitate…

张量数据的扩散指数预测AI 解读

In this paper, we consider diffusion index forecasting with both tensor and non-tensor predictors, where the tensor structure is preserved with a Canonical Polyadic (CP) tensor factor model. When the number of non-tensor predictors is small, we study the asymptotic properties of the least squares estimator in this tensor factor-augmented regression, allowing for factors with different strengths. We derive an analytical formula for prediction intervals that accounts for the…

波动率究竟是粗糙性还是长记忆？AI 解读

We develop a framework for composite likelihood estimation of parametric continuous-time stationary Gaussian processes. We derive the asymptotic theory of the associated maximum composite likelihood estimator. We implement our approach on a pair of models that have been proposed to describe the random log-spot variance of financial asset returns. A simulation study shows that it delivers good performance in these settings and improves upon a method-of-moments estimation. In…

高维条件因子模型AI 解读

This paper studies estimation and variable selection in conditional factor models with high-dimensional instruments, where the coefficient matrix exhibits a low-rank and row-sparse structure. We propose a multi-stage estimation procedure that combines nuclear norm regularization and adaptive group LASSO regression to consistently estimate latent factors and row-sparse loading coefficients, while selecting relevant instrumental characteristics. We establish theoretical…

重印：融合交易信息的高频数据非参数估计AI 解读

We propose nonparametric estimators for the explicative part of the noise in a model where the market microstructure noise is an unknown function of the trading information while allowing for the presence of an additional residual noise component. Our method allows for dependence in the observable trading information and accommodates the presence of infinite variation jumps in the efficient price process. We establish the convergence and asymptotic normality of the proposed…

分布目标下最优政策学习的公平性正则化AI 解读

A decision maker typically (i) incorporates training data to learn about the relative effectiveness of treatments, and (ii) chooses an implementation mechanism that implies an “optimal” predicted outcome distribution according to some target functional. Nevertheless, a fairness-aware decision maker may not be satisfied achieving said optimality at the cost of being “unfair” against a subgroup of the population, in the sense that the outcome distribution in that subgroup…

非参数位置—尺度模型的极小极大收敛速率AI 解读

This paper studies minimax rates of convergence for nonparametric location-scale models, which include mean, quantile, expectile and momentile regression settings. Under Hellinger differentiability on the error distribution and other mild conditions, we show that the minimax rate of convergence for estimating the regression function under the squared L2 loss is determined by the metric entropy of the nonparametric function class. Different error distributions, including…

矩阵指数空间模型的 GMM 推断AI 解读

This paper offers hypothesis and specification tests for the best generalized methods of moment estimator (BGMME) of the matrix exponential spatial specification (MESS) developed by Debarsy et al. (2015). First, as the BGMME is a two-step estimator, we formulate corrected standard errors using a modified version of the finite sample correction method in Windmeijer (2005) that accounts for the fact that the BGMME makes more extensive use of the first-stage estimator than the…

时间变换扩散模型中已实现方差估计的高效抽样AI 解读

This paper analyzes the benefits of sampling intraday returns in intrinsic time for the realized variance (RV) estimator. We theoretically show in finite samples that depending on the permitted sampling information, the RV estimator is most efficient under either hitting time sampling that samples whenever the price changes by a pre-determined threshold, or under the new concept of realized business time that samples according to a combination of observed trades and…