论文检索

高斯不变马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛AI 解读

We develop sampling methods, which consist of Gaussian invariant versions of random walk Metropolis (RWM), Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) and second order Hessian or Manifold MALA. Unlike standard RWM and MALA, we show that Gaussian invariant sampling can lead to ergodic estimators with improved statistical efficiency. This is due to a remarkable property of Gaussian invariance that allows us to obtain exact analytical solutions to the Poisson equation for…

《空间密度建模：统计、计量经济学与机器学习中的数据、方法及 R 应用》书评条目AI 解读

Katarzyna Kopczewska. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 2025, xii + 307 pp., $38.99(e-book), ISBN: 978-0-198-97518-2.Modelling Spatial Density: Data, Methods, and R Applications in Statistics ...

通过函数逼近对随机趋势进行典型相关分析AI 解读

This paper proposes a novel approach for semiparametric inference on the number s of common trends and their loading matrix ψ in I(1)/I(0) systems. It combines functional approximation of limits of random walks and canonical correlation analysis, performed between the p observed time series of length T and the first K discretized elements of an L2 basis. Tests and selection criteria for s and estimators and tests on ψ are proposed; their properties are discussed as T and K…

遗传风险评分构建：投影汇总统计与灵活收缩的稳健贝叶斯方法AI 解读

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) developed from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) can be used for risk stratification by quantifying the genetic contribution to disease, and many clinical applications have been proposed. Bayesian methods are popular for building PRS because of their natural ability to regularize models and incorporate external information. In this article, we present new theoretical results, methods, and extensive numerical studies to advance Bayesian…

大型非高斯SVAR及其货币政策应用AI 解读

Summary We develop a large structural vector autoregression (SVAR) that is statistically identified using higher-order moments under non-Gaussian, mutually independent shocks, without imposing economically motivated restrictions. Estimation is performed via an efficient Gibbs sampler that scales well with dimensionality, and we introduce an estimator of the deviance information criterion to facilitate model comparison, including the evaluation of overidentifying economic…

非线性模型时变参数的局部多项式估计AI 解读

We develop a novel asymptotic theory for local polynomial extremum estimators of time-varying parameters in a broad class of nonlinear time-series models, including discrete-valued ones. We show that the proposed estimators are asymptotically normally distributed under weak conditions. We also provide a precise characterization of the leading bias term due to smoothing. We demonstrate the usefulness of our general results by establishing primitive conditions for local…

利用低秩模型对空间数据进行完全去中心化推断AI 解读

Abstract Advancements in information technology have enabled the creation of massive spatial datasets, driving the need for scalable and efficient computational methodologies. Although offering viable solutions, centralized frameworks are limited by vulnerabilities such as single-point failures and communication bottlenecks. This paper presents a fully decentralized framework tailored for parameter inference in spatial low-rank models to address these challenges. A key…

通过干扰平衡设计网络实验AI 解读

Randomized experiments are widely used to estimate the causal effects of treatment or intervention across various scientific fields. Nowadays, numerous experiments are conducted in network settings where the outcome of one unit depends not only on its own treatment but also on the treatments of other units within the network. This phenomenon, known as network interference, poses significant challenges for experimental design. Existing randomization methods often neglect…

无向连接形成博弈中的网络外部性估计AI 解读

ABSTRACT This paper explores the existence of network externalities in link formation games of incomplete information. It extends the structural estimation method in Leung (2015) to games where links are undirected and proposals are only partially observed. We provide an econometric characterization of the proposed two‐step estimator and document its performance through a simulation exercise. When the estimation method is applied to data on risk‐sharing arrangements in a…

利用预测识别新闻冲击AI 解读

ABSTRACT We propose a method to identify the anticipated components of macroeconomic shocks in a structural VAR. We include empirical forecasts about each time series in the VAR. This introduces enough linear restrictions to identify every structural shock and to further decompose each one into “news” and “surprise” shocks. We estimate a VAR on U.S. time series using forecast data from the SPF, CBO, Federal Reserve, and asset prices. Unanticipated fiscal stimulus and…

替代指标指数：结合短期代理更快、更精确地估计长期处理效应AI 解读

Abstract A common challenge in estimating the impact of interventions (e.g. job training programmes, educational programmes) is that many outcomes of interest (e.g. lifetime earnings or other labour market outcomes) are observed with a long delay. In biomedical settings, this is often addressed by using short-term outcomes as so-called “surrogates” for the outcome of interest, e.g. tumour size as a surrogate for mortality in cancer studies. We build on this literature by…

技能形成模型中的归一化与误设AI 解读

Abstract An important class of structural models studies the determinants of skill formation and the optimal timing of interventions. In this article, I provide new identification results for these models and investigate the effects of seemingly innocuous scale and location restrictions on parameters of interest. To do so, I first characterize the identified set of all parameters without these additional restrictions and show that important policy-relevant parameters are…

因子增强稀疏 MIDAS 回归及其即时预测应用AI 解读

This article investigates factor-augmented sparse MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regressions for high-dimensional time series data, which may be observed at different frequencies. Our novel approach integrates sparse and dense dimensionality reduction techniques. We derive the convergence rate of our estimator under misspecification due to the MIDAS approximation error, τ-mixing dependence, and polynomial tails. Our method’s finite sample performance is assessed via Monte Carlo…

多成分高斯混合模型下 EM 算法的收敛与最优性AI 解读

Summary Gaussian mixture models are fundamental statistical tools for modelling heterogeneous data. Due to the nonconcavity of the likelihood function, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is widely used for parameter estimation of each Gaussian component. Existing analyses of the EM algorithm’s convergence to the true parameter focus on either the two-component case or multi-component settings with known mixing probabilities and isotropic covariance matrices. In this…

积分概率度量引导的 CUSUM-Net 非参数变点检测AI 解读

Abstract We propose CUSUM-Net, a nonparametric method for changepoint detection based on integral probability metrics and deep neural networks. Our approach learns a critic function by maximizing an aggregate CUSUM objective over candidate changepoints, thereby linking changepoint detection to optimization of two-sample integral probability metrics. The learned critic induces a one-dimensional representation on which changepoints are localized by a classical CUSUM scan.…

识别谱尖峰的来源：因子还是混合？AI 解读

Abstract We consider the problem of identifying the pattern of latent variables in high-dimensional linear latent variable models, which can also be interpreted as determining the source of spiked singular values in the data matrix. Specifically, we test whether the latent variables are continuous or categorical, a distinction that is crucial for data interpretation, but challenging in the high-dimensional regime. To address this inference problem, we analyse the asymptotic…

一类新的函数型条件自回归模型AI 解读

SUMMARY We introduce a new class of conditional autoregressive models for spatially dependent functional data, formulated through conditional means, given neighbouring functional observations and characterized by a covariance operator and a spatial dependence parameter. Our estimation strategy consists of three components: (i) estimating the covariance operator using conditionally centred data, (ii) estimating the spatial dependence parameter by maximizing the likelihood of…

高维多视图数据协方差结构的推断AI 解读

Summary This article focuses on covariance estimation for multi-view data. Popular approaches rely on factor-analytic decompositions with shared and view-specific latent factors. Posterior computation is conducted via expensive and brittle Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling or variational approximations that underestimate uncertainty and lack theoretical guarantees. Our proposed methodology employs spectral decompositions to estimate and align latent factors that are active…

准贝叶斯经验贝叶斯：泊松复合决策问题的序贯方法AI 解读

SUMMARY The Poisson compound decision problem is a long-standing problem is statistics, for which empirical Bayes methods are commonly used to estimate Poisson means in static or batch settings. We consider this problem in a streaming, or online, framework. Building on a quasi-Bayesian approach based on Newton’s algorithm, we develop a sequential estimate that is easy to evaluate, computationally efficient and has constant per-observation cost as the data accrue. We…

右删失事件时间预测集的双重稳健高效校准AI 解读

Abstract Our objective is to construct well-calibrated prediction sets for a time-to-event outcome subject to right censoring with guaranteed coverage. Inspired by modern conformal inference, our approach avoids the need for a well-specified parametric or semiparametric survival model. Unlike existing conformal methods for survival data, which assume Type-I censoring with fully observed censoring times, we consider the more common right-censoring setting in which only the…

协变量分布迁移下的自动去偏机器学习AI 解读

Summary We present machine learning estimators for causal and predictive parameters under covariate shift, where covariate distributions differ between training and target populations. One such parameter is the average effect of a policy that alters the covariate distribution, such as a treatment that modifies surrogate covariates used to predict long-term outcomes. Another example is the average treatment effect for a population with a shifted covariate distribution. We…

符号网络平衡性的非参数推断AI 解读

Abstract In many real-world networks, relationships often go beyond simple dyadic presence or absence; they can be positive, such as friendship, alliance and mutualism, or negative, characterized by enmity, disputes and competition. To understand the mechanisms of formation of such signed networks, social balance theory sheds light on the dynamics of positive and negative connections. In particular, it characterizes the proverbs ‘a friend of my friend is my friend’ and ‘an…

度量图上的非参数估计AI 解读

Abstract This work discusses a theory of functional spaces over metric graphs that permits the definition of penalized likelihood methods for data observed over spatial supports that are graphs. Within the considered mathematical framework, we recover classical results in functional analysis, such as a Poincaré-type inequality. This, in turn, enables us to uplift, to the present setting, the theory of some fundamental penalized likelihood methods. Specifically, we present…

通过平均分布尾部分析一般异质数据的极值统计AI 解读

In the general setting of independent data with possibly very different distributions, extreme value estimators inevitably target the tail of the average distribution function. We consider all possible cases, that is, the extreme value index of the average distribution can be negative, zero, or positive, and we present novel asymptotic theory for the moment estimator. Our results require a different and much more challenging proof than those for the power-law case and are…