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联立方程系统与沃尔德隐式因果链模型的预测AI 解读

According to Wold, information on some of the variables at time t cannot be used for prediction of the values of the remaining variables at t, in a simultaneous equation system. This, however, is not the case with his causal model. This paper considers the stochastic processes underlying the two models, uses the theory of canonical correlation to discuss Wold's criticism, and suggests the type of additional information necessary to remove these objections. It further shows…

边际消费倾向的最小二乘与最大似然估计量的精确抽样分布AI 解读

In this article we derive the exact finite sample frequency functions of the least squares and maximum likelihood estimators of the marginal propensity to consume, assuming the basic stochastic Keynesian model. The properties of these functions are considered in more detail for particular values of the parameters and sizes of sample. It is concluded that, for samples of 10 or more observations, generated by the model considered (with realistic values of the parameters), the…

随机区组设计中缺失小区处理程序的说明AI 解读

The properties of the missing plot procedure for a randomized block design are investigated from the randomization viewpoint. Expected mean squares, estimates of treatment effects, variances, and estimates of treatment effect variances are obtained when a particular block-plot combination is missing from the conceptual population of yields, when a block-treatment combination is missing, and when a restricted set of randomizations is considered. With proper definition of…

随机区组设计中缺失小区处理程序的说明AI 解读

The properties of the missing plot procedure for a randomized block design are investigated from the randomization viewpoint. Expected mean squares, estimates of treatment effects, variances, and estimates of treatment effect variances are obtained when a particular block-plot combination is missing from the conceptual population of yields, when a block-treatment combination is missing, and when a restricted set of randomizations is considered. With proper definition of…

因果链模型的推广：因果链系统三部曲之三AI 解读

The parting of the ways between causal chain (recursive) and interdependent (nonrecursive) systems is reviewed from the point of view of explanatory relations specified in terms of conditional expectations. On the customary assumptions, a causal chain system is designed so that its relations both in the original form and in the reduced form can be specified in terms of conditional expectations, whereas the relations of interdependent systems allow such specification only in…

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实验推断的随机化理论AI 解读

The paper contains a description of the extent to which the use of randomization in experimental designs permits evaluation of the experimental results. The case considered is that in which the whole population of treatments is used with particular experimental material. A completely general mathematical specification of the design is given and the procedure by which linear models for the experimental results are derived is exemplified by the cases of the completely…

实验设计中检验 Student 假设的若干非参数方法AI 解读

In experimental designs the quantities investigated are often grouped into blocks as a method of obtaining a higher precision for the experiment. This grouping may result in high correlation among observations within the same block. If the positions of the treatments within a block are assigned at random, the amount of correlation is difficult to determine and may vary greatly between treatments and from block to block. Also for many experiments the variances of the…

实验设计中检验 Student 假设的若干非参数方法AI 解读

In experimental designs the quantities investigated are often grouped into blocks as a method of obtaining a higher precision for the experiment. This grouping may result in high correlation among observations within the same block. If the positions of the treatments within a block are assigned at random, the amount of correlation is difficult to determine and may vary greatly between treatments and from block to block. Also for many experiments the variances of the…

银行准备金与经济波动AI 解读

The belief that severe business fluctuations are caused primarily by the operations of banks, through their influence on the quantity of the circulating medium, was widely held during the nineteenth century and the first three decades of the twentieth. During the latter part of this period variations in bank reserves were believed to be the chief causal factor underneath changes in the circulating medium furnished by the banks. This paper describes a study of factual data…

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