论文检索

平均密度估计量：效率与自助法一致性AI 解读

This paper highlights a tension between semiparametric efficiency and bootstrap consistency in the context of a canonical semiparametric estimation problem, namely the problem of estimating the average density. It is shown that although simple plug-in estimators suffer from bias problems preventing them from achieving semiparametric efficiency under minimal smoothness conditions, the nonparametric bootstrap automatically corrects for this bias and that, as a result, these…

有限通信下粒子滤波的效率AI 解读

Summary Sequential Monte Carlo methods are typically not straightforward to implement on parallel architectures. This is because standard resampling schemes involve communication between all particles. The $$\alpha$$-sequential Monte Carlo method was proposed recently as a potential solution to this that limits communication between particles. This limited communication is controlled through a sequence of stochastic matrices known as $$\alpha$$ matrices. We study the…

任意协方差下高维两样本 Behrens–Fisher 问题的近似随机化检验AI 解读

Summary This paper is concerned with the problem of comparing the population means of two groups of independent observations. An approximate randomization test procedure based on the test statistic of Chen & Qin (2010) is proposed. The asymptotic behaviour of the test statistic, as well as the randomized statistic, is studied under weak conditions. In our theoretical framework, observations are not assumed to be identically distributed even within groups. No condition on the…

有偏抽样下的独立性检验AI 解读

Testing for dependence between pairs of random variables is a fundamental problem in statistics. In some applications, data are subject to selection bias that can create spurious dependence. An important example is truncation models, in which observed pairs are restricted to a specific subset of the X-Y plane. Standard tests for independence are not suitable in such cases, and alternative tests that take the selection bias into account are required. Here, we generalize the…

分位数回归中的单指标门限模型AI 解读

Threshold regression models are useful for identifying subgroups with heterogeneous parameters. The conventional threshold regression models split the sample based on a single and observed threshold variable, which enforces the threshold point to be equal for all subgroups of the population. In this article, we consider a more flexible single-index threshold model in the quantile regression setup, in which the sample is split based on a linear combination of predictors. We…

多参数非参数融合学习：结合数据深度与置信分布AI 解读

Fusion learning refers to synthesizing inferences from multiple sources or studies to make a more effective inference and prediction than from any individual source or study alone. Most existing methods for synthesizing inferences rely on parametric model assumptions, such as normality, which often do not hold in practice. We propose a general nonparametric fusion learning framework for synthesizing inferences for multiparameters from different studies. The main tool…

配对随机实验中的推断AI 解读

This article studies inference for the average treatment effect in randomized controlled trials where treatment status is determined according to a “matched pairs” design. By a “matched pairs” design, we mean that units are sampled iid from the population of interest, paired according to observed, baseline covariates and finally, within each pair, one unit is selected at random for treatment. This type of design is used routinely throughout the sciences, but fundamental…

对《叙事限制与代理变量》的讨论AI 解读

I am grateful for the chance to discuss this characteristically insightful paper by Giacomini, Kitagawa, and Read (hence-forth GKR). Since the seminal contribution of Antolín-Díaz and Rubio-Ramírez (2018), narrative restrictions have rapidly become one of the go-to tools for sharpening causal inference in SVAR analysis. Giacomini, Kitagawa, and Read (2021) con-tributed greatly to our understanding of the role of subjective prior beliefs and the appropriate form of the…

代理变量 SVAR 中渐近有效的自助法推断AI 解读

Proxy structural vector autoregressions identify structural shocks in vector autoregressions with external variables that are correlated with the structural shocks of interest but uncorrelated with all other structural shocks. We provide asymptotic theory for this identification approach under mild α-mixing conditions that cover a large class of uncorrelated, but possibly dependent innovation processes. We prove consistency of a residual-based moving block bootstrap (MBB)…

通过子抽样进行海量数据分析的特征筛选AI 解读

Modern statistical analysis often encounters massive datasets with ultrahigh-dimensional features. In this work, we develop a subsampling approach for feature screening with massive datasets. The approach is implemented by repeated subsampling of massive data and can be used for analyzing tasks with memory constraints. To conduct the procedure, we first calculate an R-squared screening measure (and related sample moments) based on subsamples. Second, we consider three…

多重检验与教育问责激励的分布效应AI 解读

This article proposes bootstrap-based multiple testing procedures for quantile treatment effect (QTE) heterogeneity under the assumption of selection on observables, and shows its asymptotic validity. Our procedure can be used to detect the quantiles and subgroups exhibiting treatment effect heterogeneity. We apply the multiple testing procedures to data from a large-scale Pakistani school report card experiment, and uncover evidence of policy-relevant heterogeneous effects…

用三元组评估弱依赖下的对称性AI 解读

The problem of assessing symmetry about an unspecified center of the one-dimensional marginal distribution of a strictly stationary random process is considered. A well-known U-statistic based on data triples is used to detect deviations from symmetry, allowing the underlying process to satisfy suitable mixing or near-epoch dependence conditions. We suggest using subsampling for inference on the target parameter, establish the asymptotic validity of the method in our…

利用双重边缘化子抽样进行海量数据微观计量模型的贝叶斯推断AI 解读

Bayesian inference with a large dataset is computationally intensive, as Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation requires a complete scan of the dataset for each proposed parameter update. To reduce the number of data points evaluated at each iteration of posterior simulation, we develop a double marginalized subsampling method, which is applicable to a wide array of microeconometric models including Tobit, Probit, regressions with non-Gaussian errors, heteroscedasticity and…

删失分位数回归过程的可扩展估计与推断AI 解读

Censored quantile regression (CQR) has become a valuable tool to study the heterogeneous association between a possibly censored outcome and a set of covariates, yet computation and statistical inference for CQR have remained a challenge for large-scale data with many covariates. In this paper, we focus on a smoothed martingale-based sequential estimating equations approach, to which scalable gradient-based algorithms can be applied. Theoretically, we provide a unified…

同步压缩变换的渐近分析：面向非线性时频分析的统计推断AI 解读

We provide a statistical analysis of a tool in nonlinear-type time-frequency analysis, the synchrosqueezing transform (SST), for both the null and nonnull cases. The intricate nonlinear interaction of different quantities in SST is quantified by carefully analyzing relevant multivariate complex Gaussian random variables. Specifically, we provide the quotient distribution of dependent and improper complex Gaussian random variables. Then a central limit theorem result for SST…

高维中心极限定理与自助法近似的改进AI 解读

This paper deals with the Gaussian and bootstrap approximations to the distribution of the max statistic in high dimensions. This statistic takes the form of the maximum over components of the sum of independent random vectors and its distribution plays a key role in many high-dimensional estimation and testing problems. Using a novel iterative randomized Lindeberg method, the paper derives new bounds for the distributional approximation errors. These new bounds…

具有有限样本保证的新型 Edgeworth 展开AI 解读

We establish higher-order nonasymptotic expansions for a difference between probability distributions of sums of i.i.d. random vectors in a Euclidean space. The derived bounds are uniform over two classes of sets: the set of all Euclidean balls and the set of all half-spaces. These results allow to account for an impact of higher-order moments or cumulants of the considered distributions; the obtained error terms depend on a sample size and a dimension explicitly. The new…

使用近似共充分抽样检验拟合优度与条件独立性AI 解读

Goodness-of-fit (GoF) testing is ubiquitous in statistics, with direct ties to model selection, confidence interval construction, conditional independence testing, and multiple testing, just to name a few applications. While testing the GoF of a simple (point) null hypothesis provides an analyst great flexibility in the choice of test statistic while still ensuring validity, most GoF tests for composite null hypotheses are far more constrained, as the test statistic must…

隐式平滑下的高维中心极限定理与自助近似AI 解读

Nonasymptotic bounds for Gaussian and bootstrap approximation have recently attracted significant interest in high-dimensional statistics. This paper studies Berry–Esseen bounds for such approximations with respect to the multivariate Kolmogorov distance, in the context of a sum of n random vectors that are p-dimensional and i.i.d. Up to now, a growing line of work has established bounds with mild logarithmic dependence on p. However, the problem of developing corresponding…

跳跃扩散模型中跳跃成分的存在性检验AI 解读

In this paper we propose a nonparametric test to determine whether an underlying jump diffusion process indeed contains jump component, or equivalently, is indeed a diffusion. Our test is based upon a robust threshold estimation of diffusive volatility and the kernel estimation of the conditional moment function of the squared instantaneous increments of the underlying process. We show that our test statistic has asymptotic standard normal distribution under the null…

含平稳协变量的分位数协整非参数推断AI 解读

This paper considers the inference problems in nonlinear quantile regressions with both stationary and nonstationary covariates. The nonparametric local constant quantile estimator is proposed to estimate the unknown quantile regression function, whose asymptotic properties are established under quite general conditions. Specification testing of the quantile regression function is further considered through a statistic constructed based on the integrated squared distance…

多潜变量模型的快速精确变分推断AI 解读

Models with a large number of latent variables are often used to utilize the information in big or complex data, but can be difficult to estimate. Variational inference methods provide an attractive solution. These methods use an approximation to the posterior density, yet for large latent variable models existing choices can be inaccurate or slow to calibrate. Here, we propose a family of tractable variational approximations that are more accurate and faster to calibrate…

无序样本的配对或部分配对两样本检验AI 解读

Abstract In paired two-sample tests for mean equality, it is common to encounter unordered samples in which subject identities are not observed or unobservable, and it is impossible to link the measurements before and after treatment. The absence of subject identities masks the correspondence between the two samples, rendering existing methods inapplicable. In this paper, we propose two novel testing approaches. The first splits one of the two unordered samples into blocks…

复杂抽样设计下有限总体均值的 Bootstrap 推断AI 解读

Abstract Bootstrap is a useful computational tool for statistical inference, but it may lead to erroneous analysis under complex survey sampling. In this paper, we propose a unified bootstrap method for stratified multi-stage cluster sampling, Poisson sampling, simple random sampling without replacement and probability proportional to size sampling with replacement. In the proposed bootstrap method, we first generate bootstrap finite populations, apply the same sampling…