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海量数据的最优子抽样 BootstrapAI 解读

The bootstrap is a widely used procedure for statistical inference because of its simplicity and attractive statistical properties.However, the vanilla version of bootstrap is no longer feasible computationally for many modern massive datasets due to the need to repeatedly resample the entire data.Therefore, several improvements to the bootstrap method have been made in recent years, which assess the quality of estimators by subsampling the full dataset before resampling the…

洛伦兹占优的似然比检验AI 解读

In testing hypotheses pertaining to Lorenz dominance (LD), researchers have examined second- and third-order stochastic dominance using empirical Lorenz processes and integrated stochastic processes with the aid of bootstrap analysis. Among these topics, analysis of third-order stochastic dominance (TSD) based on the notion of risk aversion has been examined using crossing (generalized) Lorenz curves. These facts motivated the present study to characterize distribution pairs…

通过随机优化进行估计与推断AI 解读

In non-linear estimations, it is common to assess sampling uncertainty by bootstrap inference. For complex models, this can be computationally intensive. This paper combines optimization with resampling: turning stochastic optimization into a fast resampling device. Two methods are introduced: a resampled Newton–Raphson (rnr) and a resampled quasi-Newton (rqn) algorithm. Both produce draws that can be used to compute consistent estimates, confidence intervals, and standard…

弱代理变量下代理 SVAR 的识别与检验策略AI 解读

When proxies (external instruments) used to identify target structural shocks are weak, inference in proxy-SVARs (SVAR-IVs) is nonstandard and the construction of asymptotically valid confidence sets for the impulse responses of interest requires weak-instrument robust methods. In the presence of multiple target shocks, test inversion techniques require extra restrictions on the proxy-SVAR parameters other than those implied by the proxies that may be difficult to interpret…

条件风险价值的残差自助法AI 解读

A fixed-design residual bootstrap method is proposed for the two-step estimator of Francq and Zakoïan(2015) associated with the conditional Value-at-Risk. The bootstrap’s consistency is proven for a general class of volatility models and intervals are constructed for the conditional Value-at-Risk. A simulation study reveals that the equal-tailed percentile bootstrap interval tends to fall short of its nominal value. In contrast, the reversed-tails bootstrap interval yields…

混杂变量维度增长时利用神经网络推断一般处理效应AI 解读

Semiparametric efficient estimation of various multi-valued causal effects, including quantile treatment effects, is important in economic, biomedical, and other social sciences. Under the unconfoundedness condition, adjustment for confounders requires estimating the nuisance functions relating outcome or treatment to confounders nonparametrically. This paper considers a generalized optimization framework for efficient estimation of general treatment effects using artificial…

基于局部线性化的矩不等式子向量推断AI 解读

This paper introduces a bootstrap-based profiling inference method for subvectors in moment inequality models following insights from Bugni et al. (2017). Compared to their paper, the new method calculates the critical value by searching over a local neighborhood of a pre-estimator, instead of the whole null parameter space, to profile out nuisance parameters. In this way, non-linear moment conditions are simplified by linear expansion and the bootstrap iterates over…

含不可观测异质性的时空模型估计与自助法AI 解读

Proposed herein is a novel spatiotemporal model to characterize the unobserved heterogeneity across individuals using quantile-function-based correlated random effects and heteroscedastic innovations in a general framework. This model can be used to explore the influence of space-specific factors on latent effects at different quantile levels by controlling for spatiotemporal effects. A two-stage estimation procedure is introduced in which (i) the method of moments is used…

固定效应模型的自助法推断AI 解读

The maximum‐likelihood estimator of nonlinear panel data models with fixed effects is asymptotically biased under rectangular‐array asymptotics. The literature has devoted substantial effort to devising methods that correct for this bias as a means to salvage standard inferential procedures. The chief purpose of this paper is to show that the (recursive, parametric) bootstrap replicates the asymptotic distribution of the (uncorrected) maximum‐likelihood estimator and of the…

群组形成实验中同伴效应的随机化检验AI 解读

Measuring the effect of peers on individuals' outcomes is a challenging problem, in part because individuals often select peers who are similar in both observable and unobservable ways. Group formation experiments avoid this problem by randomly assigning individuals to groups and observing their responses; for example, do first‐year students have better grades when they are randomly assigned roommates who have stronger academic backgrounds? In this paper, we propose…

横截面与面板数据中的高效偏差修正AI 解读

Bias correction can often improve the finite sample performance of estimators. We show that the choice of bias correction method has no effect on the higher‐order variance of semiparametrically efficient parametric estimators, so long as the estimate of the bias is asymptotically linear. It is also shown that bootstrap, jackknife, and analytical bias estimates are asymptotically linear for estimators with higher‐order expansions of a standard form. In particular, we find…

系统性风险暴露张成空间的变化AI 解读

We develop a test for deciding whether the linear spaces spanned by the factor exposures of a large cross‐section of assets toward latent systematic risk factors at two distinct points in time are the same. The test uses a panel of asset returns in local windows around the two time points. The asymptotic setup is of joint type: the number of assets and the number of return observations per asset increase asymptotically while the length of both time windows shrinks. We…

线性回归子向量推断的稳健置换检验AI 解读

We develop a new permutation test for inference on a subvector of coefficients in linear models. The test is exact when the regressors and the error terms are independent. Then we show that the test is asymptotically of correct level, consistent, and has power against local alternatives when the independence condition is relaxed, under two main conditions. The first is a slight reinforcement of the usual absence of correlation between the regressors and the error term. The…

非参数形状约束的检验AI 解读

We describe and examine a test for a general class of shape constraints, such as signs of derivatives, U-shape, quasi-convexity, log-convexity, among others, in a nonparametric framework using partial sums empirical processes. We show that, after a suitable transformation, its asymptotic distribution is a functional of a Brownian motion index by the c.d.f. of the regressor. As a result, the test is distribution-free and critical values are readily available. However, due to…

非线性网络自回归AI 解读

We study general nonlinear models for time series networks of integer and continuous-valued data. The vector of high-dimensional responses, measured on the nodes of a known network, is regressed nonlinearly on its lagged value and on lagged values of the neighboring nodes by employing a smooth link function. We study stability conditions for such multivariate process and develop quasi-maximum likelihood inference when the network dimension is increasing. In addition, we…

收益可预测性 IVX 推断方法的扩展AI 解读

The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, we demonstrate that, provided either a suitable bootstrap implementation is employed or heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors are used, the IVX-based predictability tests of Kostakis et al. (2015) retain asymptotically valid inference under the null hypothesis under considerably weaker assumptions on the innovations than are required by Kostakis et al. (2015). Second, under the same assumptions, we develop…

《流式纵向数据的统计推断》讨论回复AI 解读

We thank the editorial board for organizing this discussion and giving us the opportunity to explore experts’ perspectives on our work. We sincerely appreciate the discussants for their insightful contributions, which have raised many important points and provided suggestions for potential improvements and generalizations of our proposed method. In this rejoinder, we primarily focus on three important aspects raised by the discussants: (i) the role of the weighting parameter…

以子抽样扩展频域自助法的有效性AI 解读

Summary Bootstrapping spectral mean statistics has been a notoriously difficult problem over the past 25 years. Many frequency domain bootstraps are valid only for certain time series structures, e.g., linear processes, or for special types of statistics, i.e., ratio statistics, because such bootstraps fail to capture the limiting variance of spectral statistics in general settings. We address this issue with a different form of resampling, namely, subsampling. While not…

异质信念下大型贝叶斯博弈的计量推断AI 解读

Econometric models of strategic interactions among people or firms have received a great deal of attention in the literature. Less attention has been paid to the role of the underlying assumptions about the way agents form beliefs about other agents. We focus on a single large Bayesian game with idiosyncratic strategic neighborhoods and develop an approach of empirical modeling that relaxes the assumption of rational expectations and allows the players to form beliefs…

利用贝叶斯非参数共同原子回归构建临床试验合成对照AI 解读

The availability of electronic health records (EHR) has opened opportunities to supplement increasingly expensive and difficult to carry out randomized controlled trials (RCT) with evidence from readily available real world data. In this paper, we use EHR data to construct synthetic control arms for treatment-only single arm trials. We propose a novel nonparametric Bayesian common atoms mixture model that allows us to find equivalent population strata in the EHR and the…

大型电子健康记录分析：稀有事件下的最优 Cox 回归子抽样AI 解读

Massive sized survival datasets become increasingly prevalent with the development of the healthcare industry, and pose computational challenges unprecedented in traditional survival analysis use cases. In this work we analyze the UK-biobank colorectal cancer data with genetic and environmental risk factors, including a time-dependent coefficient, which transforms the dataset into “pseudo-observation” form, thus, critically inflating its size. A popular way for coping with…

什么是随机化检验？AI 解读

The meaning of randomization tests has become obscure in statistics education and practice over the last century.This article makes a fresh attempt at rectifying this core concept of statistics.A new term-"quasirandomization test"-is introduced to define significance tests based on theoretical models and distinguish these tests from the "randomization tests" based on the physical act of randomization.The practical importance of this distinction is illustrated through a real…

用于变量选择的可逆跳跃分段确定性马尔可夫过程采样器AI 解读

A new class of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, based on simulating piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs), has recently shown great promise: they are nonreversible, can mix better than standard MCMC algorithms, and can use subsampling ideas to speed up computation in big data scenarios. However, current PDMP samplers can only sample from posterior densities that are differentiable almost everywhere, which precludes their use for model choice. Motivated…

强化学习策略评估的在线自助法推断AI 解读

The recent emergence of reinforcement learning (RL) has created a demand for robust statistical inference methods for the parameter estimates computed using these algorithms. Existing methods for inference in online learning are restricted to settings involving independently sampled observations, while inference methods in RL have so far been limited to the batch setting. The bootstrap is a flexible and efficient approach for statistical inference in online learning…