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不同尺度下带删失的重复测量：玉米微阵列分析的贝叶斯方法AI 解读

We analyze data collected in a somatic embryogenesis experiment carried out on Zea mays at Iowa State University. The main objective of the study was to identify the set of genes in maize that actively participate in embryo development. Embryo tissue was sampled and analyzed at various time periods and under different mediums and light conditions. As is the case in many microarray experiments, the operator scanned each slide multiple times to find the slide-specific…

年轻女性性态度与行为的联合模型：非线性时间效应、时变协变量与退出AI 解读

Understanding human sexual behaviors is essential for the effective prevention of sexually transmitted infections. Analysis of longitudinally measured sexual behavioral data, however, is often complicated by zero-inflation of event counts, nonlinear time trend, time-varying covariates, and informative dropouts. Ignoring these complicating factors could undermine the validity of the study findings. In this paper, we put forth a unified joint modeling structure that…

纵向二元与连续过程关联的联合模型及戒烟试验应用AI 解读

Joint models for the association of a longitudinal binary and a longitudinal continuous process are proposed for situations in which their association is of direct interest. The models are parameterized such that the dependence between the two processes is characterized by unconstrained regression coefficients. Bayesian variable selection techniques are used to parsimoniously model these coefficients. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm is developed for…

通过贝叶斯数值方法估计企业特定的配置无效率AI 解读

Abstract Both the theoretical and empirical literature on the estimation of allocative and technical inefficiency has grown enormously. To minimize aggregation bias, ideally one should estimate firm and input‐specific parameters describing allocative inefficiency. However, identifying these parameters has often proven difficult. For a panel of Chilean hydroelectric power plants, we obtain a full set of such parameters using Gibbs sampling, which draws sequentially from…

贝叶斯模型平均中先验假设的影响：增长回归应用AI 解读

Abstract We consider the problem of variable selection in linear regression models. Bayesian model averaging has become an important tool in empirical settings with large numbers of potential regressors and relatively limited numbers of observations. We examine the effect of a variety of prior assumptions on the inference concerning model size, posterior inclusion probabilities of regressors and on predictive performance. We illustrate these issues in the context of…

向量自回归的稳态先验AI 解读

Abstract Bayesian priors are often used to restrain the otherwise highly over‐parametrized vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The currently available Bayesian VAR methodology does not allow the user to specify prior beliefs about the unconditional mean, or steady state, of the system. This is unfortunate as the steady state is something that economists usually claim to know relatively well. This paper develops easily implemented methods for analyzing both stationary and…

利用积分嵌套拉普拉斯近似进行潜在高斯模型的近似贝叶斯推断AI 解读

Summary Structured additive regression models are perhaps the most commonly used class of models in statistical applications. It includes, among others, (generalized) linear models, (generalized) additive models, smoothing spline models, state space models, semiparametric regression, spatial and spatiotemporal models, log-Gaussian Cox processes and geostatistical and geoadditive models. We consider approximate Bayesian inference in a popular subset of structured additive…

预测变量数量增长且高度相关时的分布加权偏最小二乘AI 解读

Summary Because highly correlated data arise from many scientific fields, we investigate parameter estimation in a semiparametric regression model with diverging number of predictors that are highly correlated. For this, we first develop a distribution-weighted least squares estimator that can recover directions in the central subspace, then use the distribution-weighted least squares estimator as a seed vector and project it onto a Krylov space by partial least squares to…

广义惩罚样条平滑的若干渐近结果AI 解读

Summary The paper discusses asymptotic properties of penalized spline smoothing if the spline basis increases with the sample size. The proof is provided in a generalized smoothing model allowing for non-normal responses. The results are extended in two ways. First, assuming the spline coefficients to be a priori normally distributed links the smoothing framework to generalized linear mixed models. We consider the asymptotic rates such that the Laplace approximation is…

替代损失函数与 f 散度AI 解读

The goal of binary classification is to estimate a discriminant function γ from observations of covariate vectors and corresponding binary labels. We consider an elaboration of this problem in which the covariates are not available directly but are transformed by a dimensionality-reducing quantizer Q. We present conditions on loss functions such that empirical risk minimization yields Bayes consistency when both the discriminant function and the quantizer are estimated.…

对称量子假设检验的 Chernoff 下界AI 解读

We consider symmetric hypothesis testing in quantum statistics, where the hypotheses are density operators on a finite-dimensional complex Hilbert space, representing states of a finite quantum system. We prove a lower bound on the asymptotic rate exponents of Bayesian error probabilities. The bound represents a quantum extension of the Chernoff bound, which gives the best asymptotically achievable error exponent in classical discrimination between two probability measures…

使用聚合数据的随机系数Logit模型贝叶斯分析AI 解读

We present a Bayesian approach for analyzing aggregate level sales data in a market with differentiated products. We consider the aggregate share model proposed by Berry et al. [Berry, Steven, Levinsohn, James, Pakes, Ariel, 1995. Automobile prices in market equilibrium. Econometrica. 63 (4), 841-890], which introduces a common demand shock into an aggregated random coefficient logit model. A full likelihood approach is possible with a specification of the distribution of…

构建贝叶斯最优选择实验设计的高效算法AI 解读

While Bayesian - and -optimal designs for the multinomial logit model have been shown to have better predictive performance than Bayesian - and -optimal designs, the algorithms for generating them have been too slow for commercial use. In this article, we present a much faster algorithm for generating Bayesian optimal designs for all four criteria while simultaneously improving the statistical efficiency of the designs. We also show how to augment a choice design allowing…

利用聚合数据贝叶斯估计随机系数选择模型AI 解读

Abstract This article discusses the use of Bayesian methods for estimating logit demand models using aggregate data. We analyze two different demand systems: independent samples and consumer panel. Under the first system, there is a different and independent random sample of N consumers in each period and each consumer makes only a single purchase decision. Under the second system, the same N consumers make a purchase decision in each of T periods. Interestingly, there…

最近邻分类的贝叶斯重新评估AI 解读

The k-nearest-neighbor (knn) procedure is a well-known deterministic method used in supervised classification. This article proposes a reassessment of this approach as a statistical technique derived from a proper probabilistic model; in particular, we modify the assessment found in Holmes and Adams, and evaluated by Manocha and Girolami, where the underlying probabilistic model is not completely well defined. Once provided with a clear probabilistic basis for the knn…

利用贝叶斯平滑样条混合进行局部谱分析AI 解读

In many practical problems, time series are realizations of nonstationary random processes. These processes can often be modeled as processes with slowly changing dynamics or as piecewise stationary processes. In these cases, various approaches to estimating the time-varying spectral density have been proposed. Our approach in this article is to estimate the log of the Dahlhaus local spectrum using a Bayesian mixture of splines. The basic idea of our approach is to first…

单倍型病例对照研究中兼顾稳健性与效率的收缩估计AI 解读

Case-control association studies often aim to investigate the role of genes and gene-environment interactions in terms of the underlying haplotypes (i.e., the combinations of alleles at multiple genetic loci along chromosomal regions). The goal of this article is to develop robust but efficient approaches to the estimation of disease odds-ratio parameters associated with haplotypes and haplotype-environment interactions. We consider "shrinkage" estimation techniques that can…

多位点、多种群样本中单核苷酸多态性多样性的贝叶斯层级模型AI 解读

The distribution of genetic variation among populations is conveniently measured by Wright's F(ST), which is a scaled variance taking on values in [0,1]. For certain types of genetic markers, and for single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in particular, it is reasonable to presume that allelic differences at most loci are selectively neutral. For such loci, the distribution of genetic variation among populations is determined by the size of local populations, the pattern and…

基因组等容区的贝叶斯分析AI 解读

Statistical identification of isochore structure, the variation in large-scale GC composition (proportion of DNA bases that are G or C as opposed to A or T), of mammalian genomes is a necessary requirement for understanding both the evolution of base composition and the many genomic features such as mutation and recombination rates, which covary with base composition. We have developed a Bayesian method for isochore analysis that we demonstrate to be more accurate than the…

一般科学模型的确定及其资产定价应用AI 解读

We consider a consumption-based asset pricing model that uses habit persistence to overcome the known statistical inadequacies of the classical consumption-based asset pricing model. We find that the habit model fits reasonably well and agrees with results reported in the literature if conditional heteroskedasticity is suppressed but that it does not fit nor do results agree if conditional heteroskedasticity, well known to be present in financial market data, is allowed to…

气候模型集合中不确定性的贝叶斯建模AI 解读

Projections of future climate change caused by increasing greenhouse gases depend critically on numerical climate models coupling the ocean and atmosphere (global climate models [GCMs]). However, different models differ substantially in their projections, which raises the question of how the different models can best be combined into a probability distribution of future climate change. For this analysis, we have collected both current and future projected mean temperatures…

黑质神经元线粒体DNA缺失随机计算模型的贝叶斯仿真代理与校准AI 解读

This article considers the problem of parameter estimation for a stochastic biological model of mitochondrial DNA population dynamics using experimental data on deletion mutation accumulation. The stochastic model is an attempt to describe the hypothesized link between deletion accumulation and neuronal loss in the substantia nigra region of the human brain. Inference for the parameters of the model is complicated by the fact that the model is both analytically intractable…

函数型预测变量的贝叶斯半参数联合模型AI 解读

Motivated by the need to understand and predict early pregnancy loss using hormonal indicators of pregnancy health, this paper proposes a semiparametric Bayes approach for assessing the relationship between functional predictors and a response. A multivariate adaptive spline model is used to describe the functional predictors, and a generalized linear model with a random intercept describes the response. Through specifying the random intercept to follow a Dirichlet process…

利用非光滑惩罚选择有限混合模型的阶数AI 解读

Order selection is a fundamental and challenging problem in the application of finite mixture models. In this article, we develop a new penalized likelihood approach. The new method, modified smoothly clipped absolute deviation (MSCAD), deviates from information-based methods such as Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) by introducing two penalty functions that depend on the mixing proportions and the component parameters. It is…