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均匀分布 U(0, θ) 下经验贝叶斯估计的收敛速度AI 解读

Let $\{(X_i, \theta_i)\}$ be a sequence of independent random vectors where $X_i$ has a uniform density $U(0, \theta_i)$ for $0 < \theta_i < m (< \infty)$ and the unobservable $\theta_i$ are i.i.d. $G$ in some class $\mathscr{G}$ of prior distributions. In the $(n + 1)$st problem we estimate $\theta_{n + 1}$ by $t_n(X_1, \cdots, X_n, X_{n + 1}) \doteq t_n(\mathbf{X})$, incurring the risk $R_n \doteq \mathbf{E}(t_n(\mathbf{X}) - \theta_{n + 1})^2$, where $\mathbf{E}$ denotes…

带序贯组成问题的经验贝叶斯检验AI 解读

We study the empirical Bayes decision theory with an $m$-truncated sequential statistical decision problem as the component. An empirical Bayes sequential decision procedure is constructed for the linear loss two-action problem. Asymptotic results are presented regarding the convergence of the Bayes risk of the empirical Bayes sequential decision procedure. With sequential components, an empirical Bayes sequential decision procedure selects both a stopping rule function and…

用于损失估计的损失函数AI 解读

A class of proper scoring functions which combine the error in a decision problem and the precision of the statistical decision rule is introduced. The Bayesian procedures with respect to these loss functions are pairs formed by the usual Bayes decision and by the expected posterior loss. A necessary and sufficient condition for admissibility under the corresponding risk is given.

受限参数空间中的稳健固定尺寸置信程序AI 解读

Robust fixed size confidence procedures are derived for the location parameter $\theta$ of a sample of $N$ i.i.d. observations of a scalar random variable $Z$ with CDF $F(z - \theta)$. Here, $\theta$ is restricted to a closed interval $\Omega$ and the uncertainty in $F$ is modeled by an uncertainty class $\mathscr{F}$. These robust confidence procedures are, in turn, based on the solution of a related robust minimax decision problem that is characterized by a zero-one loss…

一个考古年代推断问题AI 解读

An archaeological dating problem is presented and analyzed. The analysis is based on a data-generating model, which takes careful account of the various kinds of uncertainty involved in relating observed radiocarbon dates of artifacts to successive chronological beginning and ending dates of significant archaeological phases. In addition to its intrinsic interest as a possible model for many kinds of archaeological data of this type, the model poses some challenging…

贝叶斯非参数生存分析AI 解读

This article considers a Bayesian nonparametric approach to a (right) censored data problem. Although the results are applicable to a wide variety of such problems, including reliability analysis, the discussion centers on medical survival studies. We extend the posterior distribution of percentiles given by Hill (1968) to obtain predictive posterior probabilities for the survival of one or more new patients, using data from other individuals having the same disease and…

非线性校准问题的贝叶斯方法AI 解读

In bioassays, enzyme assays, or radioimmunoassays the concentration response relationships are mostly nonlinear. Very often because of physical restrictions or for biological reasons, the prediction samples cannot be diluted and the determination of very low concentrations is of interest. Thus one cannot be restricted to the “almost linear” part of the response curve and standard linear calibration methods are not applicable. The nonlinear calibration problem is of great…

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贝叶斯非参数生存分析AI 解读

This article considers a Bayesian nonparametric approach to a (right) censored data problem. Although the results are applicable to a wide variety of such problems, including reliability analysis, the discussion centers on medical survival studies. We extend the posterior distribution of percentiles given by Hill (1968) to obtain predictive posterior probabilities for the survival of one or more new patients, using data from other individuals having the same disease and…

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用于贝叶斯非参数预测密度的逻辑斯蒂正态分布AI 解读

This article models the common density of an exchangeable sequence of observations by a generalization of the process derived from a logistic transform of a Gaussian process. The support of the logistic normal includes all distributions that are absolutely continuous with respect to the dominating measure of the observations. The logistic-normal family is closed in the prior to posterior Bayes analysis, with the observations entering the posterior distribution through the…

指定分位数的拟单峰先验下后验概率的范围AI 解读

Suppose several quantiles of the prior distribution for θ are specified or, equivalently, the prior probabilities of a partitioning collection of intervals {Ii } are given. In addition, suppose that the prior distribution is assumed to be unimodal. Rather than selecting a single prior distribution to perform a Bayesian analysis, it is of interest to consider the class of all prior distributions compatible with these inputs. For this class and unimodal likelihood functions,…

信号位置的确定：贝叶斯分析AI 解读

We study the problem of determining the location of an emergency transmitter in a downed aircraft. The observations are bearings read at fixed stations. A Bayesian approach, yielding a posterior map of probable locations, seems reasonable in this situation. We therefore develop conjugate prior distributions for the von Mises distribution, which we use to compute a posterior distribution of the location. An approximation to the posterior distribution yields accurate, rapidly…

给定分位数的拟单峰先验下后验概率的取值范围AI 解读

Suppose several quantiles of the prior distribution for θ are specified or, equivalently, the prior probabilities of a partitioning collection of intervals {Ii } are given. In addition, suppose that the prior distribution is assumed to be unimodal. Rather than selecting a single prior distribution to perform a Bayesian analysis, it is of interest to consider the class of all prior distributions compatible with these inputs. For this class and unimodal likelihood functions,…

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计量型一次抽样方案的贝叶斯方法AI 解读

In this paper, we develop a model of sampling plans for variables with a polynomial loss function, in which the decision function is either one-sided or two-sided. Based on a Bayesian approach, we suggest a simple finite algorithm for the determination of the optimal single sampling plan. Furthermore, for the case of a symmetric two-sided decision function, we propose an approximate method for determining its optimal single sampling plan.

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时间序列解聚与预测：贝叶斯分析AI 解读

The problem of temporal disaggregation of time series is analyzed by means of Bayesian methods. The disaggregated values are obtained through a posterior distribution derived by using a diffuse prior on the parameters. Further analysis is carried out assuming alternative conjugate priors. The means of the different posterior distributions are shown to be equivalent to some sampling theory results. Bayesian prediction intervals are obtained. Forecasts for future disaggregated…

熵损失下多个泊松均值的同时估计AI 解读

This paper characterizes admissible linear estimators of multiple Poisson parameters under entropy loss. Estimators dominating some of the standard estimators are given. Further, hierarchical Bayes estimators are generated and conditions under which they dominate the standard estimators are also given. Monte Carlo simulations are undertaken to indicate the extent of the risk dominance.

检测分布变化的动态抽样方法AI 解读

The problem of detecting a change in drift of Brownian motion is considered in the Bayesian framework with the time of change having a (prior) exponential distribution. To the well known problem of finding an optimal stopping rule for "declaring a change," we add the option of continuously controlling the sampling rates--resulting in controlling the variance coefficient of the process. The combined problem of finding an optimal rate function (dynamic sampling) together with…