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半参数二元响应模型中的内生性AI 解读

This paper develops and implements semiparametric methods for estimating binary response (binary choice) models with continuous endogenous regressors. It extends existing results on semiparametric estimation in single-index binary response models to the case of endogenous regressors. It develops a control function approach to account for endogeneity in triangular and fully simultaneous binary response models. The proposed estimation method is applied to estimate the income…

资产定价检验中对未指定先验偏差的收益过滤AI 解读

Procedures are presented that allow the empiricist to estimate and test asset pricing models on limited-liability securities without the assumption that the historical payoff distribution provides a consistent estimate of the market's prior beliefs. The procedures effectively filter return data for unspecified historical biases in the market's priors. They do not involve explicit estimation of the market's priors, and hence, economize on parameters. The procedures derive…

利用投入控制不可观测因素的生产函数估计AI 解读

We add to the methods for conditioning out serially correlated unobserved shocks to the production technology. We build on ideas first developed in Olley and Pakes (1996). They show how to use investment to control for correlation between input levels and the unobserved firm-specific productivity process. We show that intermediate inputs (those inputs which are typically subtracted out in a value-added production function) can also solve this simultaneity problem. We discuss…

样本选择模型的非参数估计AI 解读

Sample selection models provide an important way of accounting for economic decisions that combine discrete and continuous choices and of correcting for nonrandom sampling. Nonparametric estimators for these models are developed in this paper. These can be used for estimating shapes and important economic quantities, as in standard nonparametric regression. Endogeneity of regressors of interest is allowed for. Series estimators for these models are developed, which are…

具有多重均衡的不完全联立离散响应模型AI 解读

A bivariate simultaneous discrete response model which is a stochastic representation of equilibria in a two-person discrete game is studied. The presence of multiple equilibria in the underlying discrete game maps into a region for the exogenous variables where the model predicts a nonunique outcome. This is an example of an incomplete econometric structure. Economists using this model have made simplifying assumptions to avoid multiplicity. I make a distinction between…

正交参数与面板数据AI 解读

This paper describes a class of consistent estimators for short panels with fixed effects. The method is to find an orthogonal reparametrization of the fixed effects and then to integrate the new effects from the likelihood with respect to an appropriately chosen prior density. The resulting marginal posterior densities of the common parameters have modes that are shown to be consistent in the models examined here. The main result concerns the first-order autoregressive…

八十年代大学溢价上升：大学教育回报还是不可观测能力回报？AI 解读

The changes in the distribution of earnings during the 1980s have been studied extensively. The two most striking characteristics of the decade are (a) a large increase in the college/high school wage gap, and (b) a substantial rise in the variance of wage residuals. While this second phenomenon is typically implicitly attributed to an increase in the demand for unobserved skill, most work in this area fails to acknowledge that this same increase in demand for unobserved…

动态面板样本选择模型的估计AI 解读

This paper considers the problem of identification and estimation in panel data sample selection models with a binary selection rule, when the latent equations contain strictly exogenous variables, lags of the dependent variables, and unobserved individual effects. We derive a set of conditional moment restrictions which are then exploited to construct two-step GMM-type estimators for the parameters of the main equation. In the first step, the unknown parameters of the…

加拿大与美国工资分布差异：含协变量的灵活分布函数估计AI 解读

We construct a tractable, flexible-functional-form estimator of cumulative distribution functions for non-negative random variables which admits large numbers of covariates. The estimator adopts and extends techniques from the spell-duration literature for estimating hazard functions to distribution functions for wages, earnings, and income. We apply these methods to investigate sources of wage inequality for full-time male workers between Canada and the United States,…

联立方程模型中工具变量估计量的解释：鱼类需求的应用AI 解读

In markets where prices are determined by the intersection of supply and demand curves, standard identification results require the presence of instruments that shift one curve but not the other. These results are typically presented in the context of linear models with fixed coefficients and additive residuals. The first contribution of this paper is an investigation of the consequences of relaxing both the linearity and the additivity assumption for the interpretation of…

多元时间序列共同断点的检验与定年AI 解读

This paper develops methods for constructing asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the date of a single break in multivariate time series, including I(0), I(1), and deterministically trending regressors. Although the width of the asymptotic confidence interval does not decrease as the sample size increases, it is inversely related to the number of series which have a common break date, so there are substantial gains to multivariate inference about break dates. These…

样本选择模型截距的半参数估计AI 解读

This paper provides a consistent and asymptotically normal estimator for the intercept of a semiparametrically estimated sample selection model. The estimator uses a decreasingly small fraction of all observations as the sample size goes to infinity, as in Heckman (1990). In the semiparametrics literature, estimation of the intercept has typically been subsumed in the nonparametric sample selection bias correction term. The estimation of the intercept, however, is important…

动态均衡经济：比较模型与数据的框架AI 解读

We propose a constructive, multivariate framework for assessing agreement between (generally misspecified) dynamic equilibrium models and data, which enables a complete second-order comparison of the dynamic properties of models and data. We use bootstrap algorithms to evaluate the significance of deviations between models and data, and we use goodness-of-fit criteria to produce estimators that optimize economically-relevant loss functions. We provide a detailed illustrative…

In this paper, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods are exploited to provide a unified, practical likelihood-based framework for the analysis of stochastic volatility models. A highly effective method is developed that samples all the unobserved volatilities at once using an approximating offset mixture model, followed by an importance reweighting procedure. This approach is compared with several alternative methods using real data. The paper also develops…

This paper develops the method of matching as an econometric evaluation estimator. A rigorous distribution theory for kernel-based matching is presented. The method of matching is extended to more general conditions than the ones assumed in the statistical literature on the topic. We focus on the method of propensity score matching and show that it is not necessarily better, in the sense of reducing the variance of the resulting estimator, to use the propensity score method…

会计约束下的测量误差：潜在数据的点与区间估计及英国 GDP 应用AI 解读

An econometric methodology is proposed for reconciling inaccurate measures of latent data which are subject to accounting constraints. The method deals with the case in which the measurement errors are serially correlated, generalizing previous contributions. A class of efficient estimators are derived for the latent data. Consistent estimators for the weight matrices applied to the observed information based on a linear regression procedure are obtained together with…

工作经验对女性工资与劳动供给的影响AI 解读

This paper develops and implements a semiparametric estimator for investigating, with panel data, the importance of human capital and time nonseparable preferences to females when aggregate shocks are present. It provides a set of conditions for making statistical inferences about agents' expectations of their correlated future choices, from a short panel. Under the assumption that observed allocations are Pareto optimal, a dynamic model of female labour supply and…

利用受污染自然实验数据界定因果效应：青少年生育的影响AI 解读

In this paper, we consider what can be learned about causal effects when one uses a contaminated instrumental variable. In particular, we consider what inferences can be made about the causal effect of teenage childbearing on a teen mother's subsequent outcomes when we use the natural experiment of miscarriages to form an instrumental variable for teen births. Miscarriages might not meet all of the conditions required for an instrumental variable to identify such causal…

匹配作为计量评估估计量：职业培训项目的证据AI 解读

This paper considers whether it is possible to devise a nonexperimental procedure for evaluating a prototypical job training programme. Using rich nonexperimental data, we examine the performance of a two-stage evaluation methodology that (a) estimates the probability that a person participates in a programme and (b) uses the estimated probability in extensions of the classical method of matching. We decompose the conventional measure of programme evaluation bias into…

工具变量模型中服从者结果分布的估计AI 解读

In Imbens and Ingrist (1994), Angrist, Imbens and Rubin (1996) and Imbens and Rubin (1997), assumptions have been outlined under which instrumental variables estimands can be given a causal interpretation as a local average treatment effect without requiring functional form or constant treatment effect assumptions. We extend these results by showing that under these assumptions one can estimate more from the data than the average causal effect for the subpopulation of…

协整下两阶段最小二乘估计量的统计性质AI 解读

We derive the limiting properties of the two-stage least squares estimator of an equation in a dynamic simultaneous model when variables are nonstationary and cointegrated. The implication on hypothesis testing is also discussed. It is shown that in a structural equation approach what one needs to worry about are the classical issues of identification and estimation, not nonstationarity and cointegration. Conventional formulae for computing the asymptotic covariance of the…

过度识别广义矩模型的一步估计量AI 解读

In this paper I discuss alternatives to the GMM estimators proposed by Hansen (1982) and others. These estimators are shown to have a number of advantages. First of all, there is no need to estimate in an initial step a weight matrix as required in the conventional estimation procedure. Second, it is straightforward to derive the distribution of the estimator under general misspecification. Third, some of the alternative estimators have appealing information-theoretic…

相关误差下若干单位根检验的改进及其局部渐近性质AI 解读

Many unit root tests have distorted sizes when the root of the error process is close to the unit circle. This paper analyses the properties of the Phillips-Perron tests and some of their variants in the problematic parameter space. We use local asymptotic analyses to explain why the Phillips-Perron tests suffer from severe size distortions regardless of the choice of the spectral density estimator but that the modified statistics show dramatic improvements in size when used…

女性劳动供给与婚姻状态决策：生命周期模型AI 解读

This paper studies the interdependence between and the determinants of life-cycle marital status and labour force participation decisions of women. A dynamic utility maximization model is presented and estimated using longitudinal data on women from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The MLE method employed, involves solving a dynamic programming problem. Further, a minimum distance estimator is proposed which allows for the incorporation of wage data in a computationally…