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选举中的执政更替AI 解读

Abstract In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study all presidential and parliamentary elections held globally between 1946 and 2018. We document the prevalence of turnovers over time and estimate their effects on economic performance, human development, and the quality of democracy.…

校准参数的标准误AI 解读

Abstract Calibration, the practice of choosing the parameters of a structural model to match certain empirical moments, can be viewed as minimum distance estimation. Existing standard error formulas for such estimators require a consistent estimate of the correlation structure of the empirical moments, which is often unavailable in practice. Instead, the variances of the individual empirical moments are usually readily estimable. Using only these variances, we derive…

没有免费午餐？经由专家中介销售企业的福利分析AI 解读

Abstract We study how firms target and influence expert intermediaries. In our context, pharmaceutical manufacturers provide payments to physicians during promotional interactions. We develop an identification strategy based on plausibly exogenous variation in payments driven by differential exposure to spillovers from AMC CoI policies. Using a case study of an important class of cardiovascular drugs, we estimate heterogeneous effects of payments on prescribing, with firms…

从面板数据识别网络联系：理论及税收竞争应用AI 解读

Abstract Social interactions determine many economic behaviours, but information on social ties does not exist in most publicly available and widely used datasets. We present results on the identification of social networks from observational panel data that contains no information on social ties between agents. In the context of a canonical social interactions model, we provide sufficient conditions under which the social interactions matrix, endogenous and exogenous social…

招聘广告中的性别偏好与工作场所性别多样性AI 解读

Abstract In Spring 2005, the Ombud for Equal Treatment in Austria launched a campaign notifying employers and newspapers that gender preferences in job ads were illegal. At the time, over 40% of vacancies on the nation’s largest job board stated a gender preference; within a year the rate fell below 5%. We merge job board vacancies and employer records to study how the campaign affected hiring choices and the gender diversity of occupations and workplaces. Using pre-campaign…

反馈与学习：改判对司法决策的因果影响AI 解读

Abstract Do judges respond to reversals of their decisions? Using random assignment of cases across two stages of the criminal justice system in Norway and a novel dataset linking trial court decisions to reversals in appeals courts, we provide causal evidence on feedback effects in judicial decision-making. By exploiting differences in the tendencies of randomly assigned appeal panels to reverse trial court decisions, we show that trial court judges who receive a reversal…

动态离散博弈中高效且收敛的序贯伪似然估计AI 解读

Abstract We propose a new sequential Efficient Pseudo-Likelihood (k-EPL) estimator for dynamic discrete choice games of incomplete information. k-EPL considers the joint behaviour of multiple players simultaneously, as opposed to individual responses to other agents’ equilibrium play. This, in addition to reframing the problem from conditional choice probability (CCP) space to value function space, yields a computationally tractable, stable, and efficient estimator. We show…

网络干扰下的政策定向配置AI 解读

Abstract This article studies the problem of optimally allocating treatments in the presence of spillover effects, using information from a (quasi-)experiment. I introduce a method that maximizes the sample analogue of average social welfare when spillovers occur. I construct semi-parametric welfare estimators with known and unknown propensity scores and cast the optimization problem into a mixed-integer linear program, which can be solved using off-the-shelf algorithms. I…

数据组合下的部分线性模型AI 解读

Abstract We study partially linear models when the outcome of interest and some of the covariates are observed in two different datasets that cannot be linked. This type of data combination problem arises very frequently in empirical microeconomics. Using recent tools from optimal transport theory, we derive a constructive characterization of the sharp identified set. We then build on this result and develop a novel inference method that exploits the specific geometric…

非参数结构函数与弹性的自适应估计和一致置信带AI 解读

Abstract We introduce two data-driven procedures for optimal estimation and inference in nonparametric models using instrumental variables. The first is a data-driven choice of sieve dimension for a popular class of sieve two-stage least-squares estimators. When implemented with this choice, estimators of both the structural function h0 and its derivatives (such as elasticities) converge at the fastest possible (i.e. minimax) rates in sup-norm. The second is for constructing…

Abstract We develop a framework for difference-in-differences designs with staggered treatment adoption and heterogeneous causal effects. We show that conventional regression-based estimators fail to provide unbiased estimates of relevant estimands absent strong restrictions on treatment-effect homogeneity. We then derive the efficient estimator addressing this challenge, which takes an intuitive “imputation” form when treatment-effect heterogeneity is unrestricted. We…

固定效应与广义 Mundlak 估计量AI 解读

Abstract We develop a new approach for estimating average treatment effects in observational studies with unobserved group-level heterogeneity. We consider a general model with group-level unconfoundedness and provide conditions under which aggregate balancing statistics—group-level averages of functions of treatments and covariates—are sufficient to eliminate differences between groups. Building on these results, we re-interpret commonly used linear fixed-effect regression…

正规信贷市场进入如何改变社会网络结构AI 解读

Abstract We show that the entry of formal financial institutions can have far-reaching and long-lasting impacts on informal lending and social networks more generally. We first study the introduction of microfinance in 75 villages in Karnataka, India, 43 of which were exposed to microfinance. Using difference-in-differences, we show that networks shrank more in exposed villages. Moreover, links between households that were both unlikely to borrow from microfinance were at…

学校多样性：移民与美国本土出生学生的教育表现AI 解读

Abstract We study the effect of exposure to immigrants on the educational outcomes of U.S.-born students, using a unique dataset combining population-level birth and school records from Florida. This research question is complicated by the substantial school selection of U.S.-born students, especially among White and comparatively affluent students, in response to the presence of immigrant students in the school. We propose a new identification strategy, comparing sibling…

误设矩不等式模型的推断与诊断AI 解读

Abstract This paper is concerned with possible model misspecification in moment inequality models. Two issues are addressed. First, standard tests and confidence sets for the true parameter in the moment inequality literature are not robust to model misspecification in the sense that they exhibit spurious precision when the identified set is empty. This paper introduces tests and confidence sets that provide correct asymptotic inference for a pseudo-true parameter in such…

排名推断：社区代际流动与跨国学业表现的应用AI 解读

Abstract It is often desired to rank different populations according to the value of some feature of each population. For example, it may be desired to rank neighbourhoods according to some measure of intergenerational mobility or countries according to some measure of academic achievement. These rankings are invariably computed using estimates rather than the true values of these features. As a result, there may be considerable uncertainty concerning the rank of each…

线性条件矩不等式的统计推断AI 解读

Abstract We show that moment inequalities in a wide variety of economic applications have a particular linear conditional structure. We use this structure to construct uniformly valid confidence sets that remain computationally tractable even in settings with nuisance parameters. We first introduce least-favorable critical values which deliver non-conservative tests if all moments are binding. Next, we introduce a novel conditional inference approach which ensures a strong…

更可信的平行趋势分析方法AI 解读

Abstract This paper proposes tools for robust inference in difference-in-differences and event-study designs where the parallel trends assumption may be violated. Instead of requiring that parallel trends holds exactly, we impose restrictions on how different the post-treatment violations of parallel trends can be from the pre-treatment differences in trends (“pre-trends”). The causal parameter of interest is partially identified under these restrictions. We introduce two…

随机对照试验中用于自适应随机分配的分层树AI 解读

Abstract This paper proposes an adaptive randomisation procedure for two-stage randomised controlled trials. The method uses data from a first-wave experiment in order to determine how to stratify in a second wave of the experiment, where the objective is to minimise the variance of an estimator for the average treatment effect. We consider selection from a class of stratified randomisation procedures which we call stratification trees: these are procedures whose strata can…

亚马孙雨林环境政策的最优定向配置AI 解读

Abstract This article sets out a data-driven approach for targeting environmental policies optimally in order to combat deforestation. We focus on the Amazon, the world’s most extensive rainforest, where Brazil’s federal government issued a “Priority List” of municipalities in 2008—a blacklist to be targeted with more intense environmental monitoring and enforcement. First, we estimate the causal impact of the Priority List on deforestation (along with other relevant…

动态模型的工具变量方法AI 解读

Abstract We present a new class of methods for identification and inference in dynamic models with serially correlated unobservables, which typically imply that state variables are econometrically endogenous. In the context of Industrial Organization, these state variables often reflect econometrically endogenous market structure. We propose the use of Generalized Instrument Variables methods to identify those dynamic policy functions that are consistent with instrumental…

信息假设较弱时的离散博弈估计AI 解读

Abstract We propose a method to estimate static discrete games with weak assumptions on the information available to players. We do not fully specify the information structure of the game but allow instead for all information structures consistent with players knowing their own payoffs. To make this approach tractable, we adopt as a solution concept Bayes correlated equilibrium (BCE). We characterize the sharp identified set under BCE and unrestricted equilibrium selection,…

税收政策与企业非连续大额投资：中国增值税改革的证据AI 解读

Abstract We incorporate the lumpy nature of firm-level investment into the study of how tax policy affects investment behaviour. We show that tax policies can directly impact the lumpiness of investment. Extensive-margin responses to tax policy are key to understanding the effects of different tax reforms and to designing effective stimulus policies. We illustrate these results by studying China’s 2009 VAT reform, which lowered the tax cost of investment and reduced partial…

矩不等式模型中全向量与子向量推断的简便自适应精确尺寸检验AI 解读

Abstract We propose a simple test for moment inequalities that has exact size in normal models with known variance and has uniformly asymptotically exact size under asymptotic normality. The test compares the quasi-likelihood ratio statistic to a chi-squared critical value, where the degree of freedom is the rank of the inequalities that are active in finite samples. The test requires no simulation and thus is computationally fast and especially suitable for constructing…