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年龄—时期—队列问题与生命周期模型结构参数识别AI 解读

A standard approach to estimating structural parameters in life‐cycle models imposes sufficient assumptions on the data to identify the “age profile” of outcomes, then chooses model parameters so that the model's age profile matches this empirical age profile. I show that this approach is both incorrect and unnecessary: incorrect, because it generally produces inconsistent estimators of the structural parameters, and unnecessary, because consistent estimators can be obtained…

吸烟初始行为：同伴与人格AI 解读

Social interactions are widely recognized to play an important role in smoking initiation among adolescents. In this paper, we hypothesize that emotionally stable, conscientious individuals are better able to resist peer pressure in the uptake of smoking. We exploit detailed friendship nominations in the US Add Health data, and extend the Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model to deal with (i) endogenous peer selection, and (ii) unobserved contextual effects, in order to…

反事实结果模型中平滑性假设的识别能力AI 解读

In this paper, we investigate what can be learned about average counterfactual outcomes as well as average treatment effects when it is assumed that treatment response functions are smooth. We obtain a set of new partial identification results for both the average treatment response and the average treatment effect. In particular, we find that the monotone treatment response and monotone treatment selection bound of Manski and Pepper, 2000 can be further tightened if we…

流动性的测度AI 解读

Our new approach to mobility measurement involves separating out the valuation of positions in terms of individual status (using income, social rank, or other criteria) from the issue of movement between positions. The quantification of movement is addressed using a general concept of distance between positions and a parsimonious set of axioms that characterize the distance concept and yield a class of aggregative indices. This class of indices induces a superclass of…

离散响应模型中的信息结构与统计信息AI 解读

Strategic interaction parameters characterize the impact of actions of one economic agent on the payoff of another economic agent, and are of great interest in both theoretical and empirical work. In this paper, by considering econometric models involving simultaneous discrete systems of equations, we study how the information available to economic agents regarding other economic agents can influence whether or not these strategic information parameters can be inferred from…

同类匹配模型中的潜在指数AI 解读

A large class of two-sided matching models that include both transferable and non-transferable utility result in positive assortative matching along a latent index. Data from matching markets, however, may not exhibit perfect assortativity due to the presence of unobserved characteristics. This paper studies the identification and estimation of such models. We show that the distribution of the latent index is not identified when data from one-to-one matches are observed.…

组合离散选择模型与二元博弈的识别札记AI 解读

We study nonparametric identification of single-agent discrete choice models for bundles (without requiring bundle-specific prices) and of binary games of complete information. We show that these two models are quite similar from an identification standpoint. Moreover, they are mathematically equivalent when we restrict attention to the class of potential games and impose a specific equilibrium selection mechanism in the data generating process. We provide new identification…

一口价拍卖中时间偏好与风险偏好的识别AI 解读

Buy price auctions merge a posted price option with a standard bidding mechanisms, and have been used by various online auction sites including eBay and General Motors Assistance Corporation. A buyer in a buy price auction can accept the buy price to win with certainty and end the auction early. Intuitively, the buy price option may appeal to bidders who are risk averse or impatient to obtain the good, and a number of authors have examined how such mechanisms can increase…

动态技能积累、教育政策与 schooling 回报AI 解读

Using a dynamic skill accumulation model of schooling and labor supply with learning-by-doing, we decompose early life-cycle wage growth of U.S. white males into four main sources: education, hours worked, cognitive skills (Armed Forces Qualification Tests scores), and unobserved heterogeneity, and evaluate the effect of compulsory high school graduation and a reduction in the cost of college. About 60 percent of the differences in slopes of early life-cycle wage profiles…

潜在面板结构中的组数确定：收入与民主的应用AI 解读

We consider a latent group panel structure as recently studied by Su, Shi, and Phillips (2016), where the number of groups is unknown and has to be determined empirically. We propose a testing procedure to determine the number of groups. Our test is a residual-based Lagrange multiplier-type test. We show that after being appropriately standardized, our test is asymptotically normally distributed under the null hypothesis of a given number of groups and has the power to…

离散—连续动态选择模型的内生网格法：有无偏好冲击的情形AI 解读

We present a fast and accurate computational method for solving and estimating a class of dynamic programming models with discrete and continuous choice variables. The solution method we develop for structural estimation extends the endogenous grid-point method (EGM) to discrete-continuous (DC) problems. Discrete choices can lead to kinks in the value functions and discontinuities in the optimal policy rules, greatly complicating the solution of the model. We show how these…

利用非线性合同的不连续性估计经济主体的价格敏感度AI 解读

This paper proposes a method to estimate price sensitivity of economic agents exploiting discontinuity in nonlinear contracts. As an application, we study contracts between a managed care organization and hospitals for organ transplants. Exploiting donut holes in the reimbursement contracts, we show that the impact of the reimbursement rate on hospitals' provision of health care services varies significantly across patients with different levels of illness severity. Our…

电子拍卖竞价模型的识别与估计AI 解读

Because of discrete bid increments, bidders at electronic auctions engage in shading instead of revealing their valuations, which would occur under the commonly assumed second-price rule. We demonstrate that misspecifying the pricing rule can lead to biased estimates of the latent valuation distribution, and then explore identification and estimation of a model with a correctly specified pricing rule. A further challenge to econometricians is that only a lower bound on the…

预防性储蓄与总需求AI 解读

We construct, and then estimate by maximum likelihood, a tractable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with incomplete insurance and heterogenous agents. The key feature of our framework is that cross-sectional heterogeneity remains finite dimensional. The solution to the model thus admits a state-space representation that can be used to recover the distribution of the model's parameters. Household heterogeneity expands the set of observables to cross-sectional…

精确匹配条件矩的非线性、非高斯马尔可夫过程离散化AI 解读

Approximating stochastic processes by finite-state Markov chains is useful for reducing computational complexity when solving dynamic economic models. We provide a new method for accurately discretizing general Markov processes by matching low order moments of the conditional distributions using maximum entropy. In contrast to existing methods, our approach is not limited to linear Gaussian autoregressive processes. We apply our method to numerically solve asset pricing…

已知第一阶段符号时的无偏工具变量估计AI 解读

We derive mean-unbiased estimators for the structural parameter in instrumental variables models with a single endogenous regressor where the sign of one or more first-stage coefficients is known. In the case with a single instrument, there is a unique nonrandomized unbiased estimator based on the reduced-form and first-stage regression estimates. For cases with multiple instruments we propose a class of unbiased estimators and show that an estimator within this class is…

容许逆从者？不依赖单调性的局部平均处理效应AI 解读

Instrumental variables (IVs) are commonly used to estimate the effects of some treatments. A valid IV should be as good as randomly assigned, it should not have a direct effect on the outcome, and it should not induce any unit to forgo treatment. This last condition, the so-called monotonicity condition, is often implausible. This paper starts by showing that actually, IVs are still valid under a weaker condition than monotonicity. It then derives conditions that are…

二元内生非可分模型中的反事实映射与个体处理效应AI 解读

This paper establishes nonparametric identification of individual treatment effects in a nonseparable model with a binary endogenous regressor. The outcome variable may be continuous, discrete, or a mixture of both, while the instrumental variable can take binary values. First, we study the case where the model includes a selection equation for the binary endogenous regressor. We establish point identification of the individual treatment effects and the structural function…

小单位中的群体隔离测度：部分识别分析AI 解读

We consider the issue of measuring segregation in a population of small units, considering establishments in our application. Each establishment may have a different probability of hiring an individual from the minority group. We define segregation indices as inequality indices on these unobserved, random probabilities. Because these probabilities are measured with error by proportions, standard estimators are inconsistent. We model this problem as a nonparametric binomial…

竞买人不对称的升价拍卖AI 解读

We present a partial identification approach for ascending auctions with bidder asymmetries, where bidders' asymmetric types may be unobservable to the econometrician. Our approach yields sharp bounds and builds on and generalizes other recent bounds approaches for correlated private values ascending auctions. When bidder identities are observable, our approach yields tighter bounds than previous approaches that ignore asymmetry, demonstrating that bidder asymmetries can…

异质性家庭分配规则识别札记AI 解读

In this note, we address nonparametric identification of a collective model of household behavior in the presence of additive unobserved heterogeneity in the sharing rule. We show that the (nonstochastic part of the) sharing rule is nonparametrically identified. Moreover, under independence assumptions, individual Engel curves and the random distributions are identified except in special cases (i.e., linear Engel curves).

向量移动平均表示的基本性检验AI 解读

We propose a test for invertibility or fundamentalness of structural vector autoregressive moving average models generated by non-Gaussian independent and identically distributed structural shocks. We prove that in these models and under some regularity conditions the Wold innovations are a martingale difference sequence (mds) if and only if the structural shocks are fundamental. This simple but powerful characterization suggests an empirical strategy to assess…

矩不等式模型中部分识别参数的子向量及其他函数推断AI 解读

This paper introduces a bootstrap-based inference method for functions of the parameter vector in a moment (in)equality model. These functions are restricted to be linear for two-sided testing problems, but may be nonlinear for one-sided testing problems. In the most common case, this function selects a subvector of the parameter, such as a single component. The new inference method we propose controls asymptotic size uniformly over a large class of data distributions and…

欧拉方程估计：子女与信贷约束AI 解读

Conventional estimators based on the consumption Euler equation, intensively used in studies of intertemporal consumption behavior, produce biased estimates of the effect of children on the marginal utility of consumption if consumers face credit constraints. As a more constructive contribution, I propose a tractable approach to obtaining bounds on the effect of children on the marginal utility of consumption. I estimate these bounds using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics…