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劳动收入轨迹并不异质：来自收入增长率的证据AI 解读

Idiosyncratic labor incomes are typically modeled either by stochastic processes with heterogeneous income profiles (HIPs) or restricted income profiles (RIPs).The HIP assumes that individual labor income grows deterministically at an unobserved rate and contains a persistent but stationary component, while the RIP assumes that income contains a random walk, a stationary component, and no unobserved deterministic growth-rate component.I show that if idiosyncratic labor…

异方差与多工具变量下的工具变量估计AI 解读

This paper gives a relatively simple, well behaved solution to the problem of many instruments in heteroskedastic data. Such settings are common in microeconometric applications where many instruments are used to improve efficiency and allowance for heteroskedasticity is generally important. The solution is a Fuller (1977) like estimator and standard errors that are robust to heteroskedasticity and many instruments. We show that the estimator has finite moments and high…

汽油需求的价格响应：经济形状约束与非参数估计AI 解读

This paper develops a new method for estimating a demand function and the welfare consequences of price changes. The method is applied to gasoline demand in the United States and is applicable to other goods. The method uses shape restrictions derived from economic theory to improve the precision of a nonparametric estimate of the demand function. Using data from the U.S. National Household Travel Survey, we show that the restrictions are consistent with the data on gasoline…

线性化动态随机一般均衡模型的识别与频域准极大似然估计AI 解读

This paper considers issues related to identification, inference, and computation in linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. We first provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the local identification of the structural parameters based on the (first and) second order properties of the process. The condition allows for arbitrary relations between the number of observed endogenous variables and structural shocks, and is simple to verify. The…

次贷危机期间金融泡沫起止时间的测定AI 解读

A new recursive regression methodology is introduced to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods modify a technique proposed in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) and provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior with consistent dating of their origination and collapse. The tests serve as an early warning diagnostic of bubble activity and a new procedure is introduced for testing bubble migration across…

随机系数分布的简便估计方法AI 解读

We propose a simple mixtures estimator for recovering the joint distribution of parameter heterogeneity in economic models, such as the random coefficients logit. The estimator is based on linear regression subject to linear inequality constraints, and is robust, easy to program, and computationally attractive compared to alternative estimators for random coefficient models. For complex structural models, one does not need to nest a solution to the economic model during…

美国经济对能源价格上涨与下跌的反应是否不对称？AI 解读

How much does real gross domestic product (GDP) respond to unanticipated changes in the real price of oil? Commonly used censored oil price vector autoregressive models suggest a substantial decline in real GDP in response to unexpected increases in the real price of oil, yet no response to unexpected declines. We show that these estimates are invalid. Based on a structural model that encompasses both symmetric and asymmetric models as special cases, correctly computed…

美国黑人与白人代际收入流动差异的非参数分析AI 解读

Lower intergenerational income mobility for blacks is a likely cause behind the persistent interracial gap in economic status in the United States.However, few studies have analyzed black-white differences in intergenerational income mobility and the factors that determine these differences.This is largely due to the absence of appropriate methodological tools.We develop nonparametric methods to estimate the effects of covariates on two measures of mobility.We first consider…

同时离散博弈中纳什均衡行动的非参数概率界AI 解读

We study a simultaneous, complete-information game played by p = 1 P agents.Each p has an ordinal decision variable Y p ∈ A p = {0 1 M p }, where M p can be unbounded, A p is p's action space, and each element in A p is an action, that is, a potential value for Y p .The collective action space is the Cartesian product A = P p=1 A p .A profile of actions y ∈ A is a Nash equilibrium (NE) profile if y is played with positive probability in some existing NE.Assuming that we…

宏观经济波动的来源：状态转换 DSGE 方法AI 解读

We examine the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations by estimating a variety of richly parameterized DSGE models within a unified framework that incorporates regime switching both in shock variances and in the inflation target. We propose an efficient methodology for estimating regime-switching DSGE models. Our counterfactual exercises show that changes in the inflation target are not the main driving force of high inflation in the 1970s. The model that best fits the U.S.…

距离终于失去作用了吗？专利引用固定效应模型中的本土偏向下降AI 解读

We examine the “home bias” of knowledge spillovers (the idea that knowledge spreads more slowly over international boundaries than within them) as measured by the speed of patent citations. We present econometric evidence that the geographical localization of knowledge spillovers has fallen over time, as we would expect from the dramatic fall in communication and travel costs. Our proposed estimator controls for correlated fixed effects and censoring in duration models, and…

求解动态经济模型的数值稳定且准确的随机模拟方法AI 解读

We develop numerically stable and accurate stochastic simulation approaches for solving dynamic economic models. First, instead of standard least-squares approximation methods, we examine a variety of alternatives, including least-squares methods using singular value decomposition and Tikhonov regularization, least-absolute deviations methods, and principal component regression method, all of which are numerically stable and can handle ill-conditioned problems. Second,…

利用多种滤波方法估计周期性 DSGE 模型AI 解读

We propose a method to estimate time in variant cyclical DSGE models using the information provided by a variety of filters. We treat data filtered with alternative procedures as contaminated proxies of the relevant model-based quantities and estimate structural and non-structural parameters jointly using a signal extraction approach. We employ simulated data to illustrate the properties of the procedure and compare our conclusions with those obtained when just one filter is…

动态离散选择模型中期望价值函数的连续性与可微性AI 解读

This paper explores the properties of expected value functions in dynamic discrete choice models. The continuity with respect to state variables and parameters, and the differentiability with respect to state variables are established under fairly general conditions. The differentiability with respect to parameters is proved when some state variables do not affect the state transition probabilities and, thus, the expected value functions. It is shown that such variables are…

含 Tobin 型解释变量的集合识别与敏感性分析AI 解读

We give semiparametric identification and estimation results for econometric models with a regressor that is endogenous, bound censored, and selected; it is called a Tobin regressor. First, we show that the true parameter value is set-identified and characterize the identification sets. Second, we propose novel estimation and inference methods for this true value. These estimation and inference methods are of independent interest and apply to any problem possessing the…

分布离散程度参数的部分识别AI 解读

This paper analyzes partial identification of parameters that measure a distribution's spread, for example, the variance, Gini coefficient, entropy, or interquartile range. The core results are tight, two-dimensional identification regions for the expectation and variance, the median and interquartile ratio, and many other combinations of parameters. They are developed for numerous identification settings, including but not limited to cases where one can bound either the…

非线性 LATE 模型中的半参数效率AI 解读

In this paper we study semiparametric efficiency for the estimation of a finite-dimensional parameter defined by generalized moment conditions under the local instrumental variable assumptions. These parameters identify treatment effects on the set of compliers under the monotonicity assumption. The distributions of covariates, the treatment dummy, and the binary instrument are not specified in a parametric form, making the model semiparametric. We derive the semiparametric…

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学校改革对教育与劳动力市场表现的影响：智利普遍教育券制度的证据AI 解读

This paper studies the effects of school reform in Chile, which adopted a nationwide school voucher program along with school decentralization reforms in 1981. Since then, Chile has had a relatively unregulated, competitive market in primary and secondary education. It therefore provides a unique setting in which to study how these reforms affected school attainment and labor market outcomes. This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of school attendance and work…

无差异交易者回忆录：从预测市场估计预测分布AI 解读

Prediction markets for future events are increasingly common and they often trade several contracts for the same event. This paper considers the distribution of a normative risk-neutral trader who, given any portfolio of contracts traded on the event, would choose not to reallocate that portfolio of contracts even if transactions costs were zero. Because common parametric distributions can conflict with observed prediction market prices, the distribution is given a…