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劳动收入过程的持久—暂时成分表示AI 解读

We consider the decomposition of shocks to a dynamic process into a persistent and a transitory component. Without additional assumptions (such as zero correlation) the decomposition of shocks into a persistent and transitory component is indeterminate. The assumption that is conventional in the earnings literature is that there is no correlation. The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition that is widely used in time series analysis assumes a perfect correlation. Without…

兼有离散与连续选择的动态决策过程的非参数识别AI 解读

This paper establishes conditions for nonparametric identification of dynamic optimization models in which agents make both discrete and continuous choices. We consider identification of both the payoff function and the distribution of unobservables. Models of this kind are prevalent in applied microeconomics and many of the required conditions are standard assumptions currently used in empirical work. We focus on conditions on the model that can be implied by economic…

可能弱识别的动态随机一般均衡模型推断AI 解读

This paper considers inference in log-linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with weakly (including un-) identified parameters. The framework allows for analysis using only part of the spectrum, say at the business cycle frequencies. First, we characterize weak identification from a frequency domain perspective and propose a score test for the structural parameter vector based on the frequency domain approximation to the Gaussian likelihood. The…

非可分联立方程模型中的控制函数AI 解读

The control function approach (Heckman and Robb (1985)) in a system of linear simultaneous equations provides a convenient procedure to estimate one of the functions in the system using reduced form residuals from the other functions as additional regressors. The conditions on the structural system under which this procedure can be used in nonlinear and nonparametric simultaneous equations has thus far been unknown. In this paper, we define a new property of functions called…

计量经济模型中有限混合分布的部分识别AI 解读

We consider partial identification of finite mixture models in the presence of an observable source of variation in the mixture weights that leaves component distributions unchanged, as is the case in large classes of econometric models. We first show that when the number J of component distributions is known a priori, the family of mixture models compatible with the data is a subset of a J(J−1)-dimensional space. When the outcome variable is continuous, this subset is…

互补性与同类匹配的总体影响：非参数分析AI 解读

This paper presents econometric methods for measuring the average output effect of reallocating an indivisible input across production units. A distinctive feature of reallocations is that, by definition, they involve no augmentation of resources and, as such, leave the marginal distribution of the reallocated input unchanged. Nevertheless, if the production technology is nonseparable, they may alter average output. An example is the reallocation of teachers across…

凹单调处理反应与单调处理选择：教育回报的应用AI 解读

This paper identifies sharp bounds on the mean treatment response and average treatment effect under the assumptions of both the concave-monotone treatment response (concave-MTR) and the monotone treatment selection (MTS).We use our bounds and the U.S. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 to estimate mean returns to schooling.Our upper-bound estimates are substantially smaller than (i) estimates using only the concave-MTR assumption of Manski (1997), and (ii) estimates…

收入—闲暇偏好的识别与所得税政策评估AI 解读

The merits of alternative income tax policies depend on the population distribution of preferences for income and leisure. Standard theory, which supposes that persons want more income and more leisure, does not predict how they resolve the tension between these desires. Empirical studies of labor supply have imposed strong preference assumptions that lack foundation. This paper examines anew the problem of inference on income–leisure preferences and considers the…

村庄经济中的异质性与风险分担AI 解读

We show how to use panel data on household consumption to directly estimate households' risk preferences. Specifically, we measure heterogeneity in risk aversion among households in Thai villages using a full risk-sharing model, which we then test allowing for this heterogeneity. There is substantial, statistically significant heterogeneity in estimated risk preferences. Full insurance cannot be rejected. As the risk-sharing as-if-complete-markets theory might predict,…

不完全信息动态博弈的最小距离估计AI 解读

We develop a minimum distance estimator for dynamic games of incomplete information. We take a two-step approach, following Hotz and Miller (1993), based on the pseudo-model that does not solve the dynamic equilibrium so as to circumvent the potential indeterminacy issues associated with multiple equilibria. The class of games estimable by our methodology includes the familiar discrete unordered action games as well as games where players' actions are monotone (discrete,…

公共住房超额需求模型的估计AI 解读

The purpose of this paper is to develop and estimate a new equilibrium model of public housing that acknowledges the fact that the demand for public housing may exceed the available supply. We show that ignoring these supply side restrictions leads to an inconsistent estimator of household preferences. We estimate the parameters of the model based on a unique panel data set of low-income households in Pittsburgh. We find that public housing is an attractive option for…

含非加性不可观测异质性的面板模型：估计与推断AI 解读

This paper considers fixed effects estimation and inference in linear and nonlinear panel data models with random coefficients and endogenous regressors. The quantities of interest—means, variances, and other moments of the random coefficients—are estimated by cross sectional sample moments of generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators applied separately to the time series of each individual. To deal with the incidental parameter problem introduced by the noise of the…

存在不可观测异质性时的拍卖界限AI 解读

Many empirical studies of auctions rely on the assumption that the researcher observes all variables that make auctions differ ex ante. When there is unobserved heterogeneity, the direction of the bias this causes is known only in a few restrictive examples. In this paper, I show that ignoring unobserved heterogeneity in a first price sealed bid auction with symmetric independent private values gives bounds on several quantities of economic interest under surprisingly…

弱识别动态随机一般均衡模型的频率学派推断AI 解读

A common problem in estimating dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models is that the structural parameters of economic interest are only weakly identified. As a result, classical confidence sets and Bayesian credible sets will not coincide even asymptotically, and the mean, mode, or median of the posterior distribution of the structural parameters can no longer be viewed as a consistent estimator. We propose two methods of constructing confidence intervals for structural…

多项离散选择的工具变量模型AI 解读

This paper studies identification of latent utility functions in multiple discrete choice models in which there may be endogenous explanatory variables, that is explanatory variables that are not restricted to be distributed independently of the unobserved determinants of latent utilities. The model does not employ large support, special regressor or control function restrictions, indeed it is silent about the process delivering values of endogenous explanatory variables and…

拍卖次序统计量估计方法的大样本性质AI 解读

For symmetric auctions, there is a close relationship between distributions of order statistics of bidders' valuations and observable bids that is often used to estimate or bound the valuation distribution, optimal reserve price, and other quantities of interest nonparametrically. However, we show that the functional mapping from distributions of order statistics to their parent distribution is, in general, not Lipschitz continuous and, therefore, introduces an irregularity…

对缺失数据假设的敏感性：理论与美国工资结构评估AI 解读

This paper develops methods for assessing the sensitivity of empirical conclusions regarding conditional distributions to departures from the missing at random (MAR) assumption.We index the degree of nonignorable selection governing the missing data process by the maximal Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance between the distributions of missing and observed outcomes across all values of the covariates.Sharp bounds on minimum mean square approximations to conditional quantiles are…

广义竞争风险模型识别的新方法及其二价拍卖应用AI 解读

This paper proposes an approach to proving nonparametric identification for distributions of bidders' values in asymmetric second-price auctions. I consider the case when bidders have independent private values and the only available data pertain to the winner's identity and the transaction price. My proof of identification is constructive and is based on establishing the existence and uniqueness of a solution to the system of nonlinear differential equations that describes…

通过导数约束建模内生解释变量与异质性结构方程AI 解读

In this paper, I present a general modeling framework for nonparametric models with endogenous regressors and heterogeneity. I show that many existing models in the literature can be derived from a structural equation with unobserved heterogeneity by imposing constancy assumptions on the first and second derivatives. I consider a less restrictive model that imposes constancy assumptions on the second partial derivative of the structural equation. Assuming the existence of…

识别同伴成绩溢出：学校去隔离与成绩差距的含义AI 解读

This paper develops a new approach to identifying peer achievement spillovers in the context of an equilibrium model of student effort choices. By focusing on the effect of contemporaneous peer achievement, this framework integrates previously unexplored types of heterogeneity in peer spillovers in the achievement production context. Applying the strategy to North Carolina public elementary school students, I find peer achievement spillovers exist primarily within race-based…

效用与选择概率映射的满射性AI 解读

This note considers a standard multinomial choice model. It is shown that if the distribution of additive utility shocks has a density, then the mapping from deterministic components of utilities to choice probabilities is surjective. In other words, any vector of choice probabilities can be obtained by selecting suitable utilities for alternatives. This result has implications for at least three areas of interest to econometricians: the Hotz and Miller (1993) estimator for…

递归偏好经济模型的估计AI 解读

This paper presents estimates of key preference parameters of the Epstein and Zin (1989, 1991) and Weil (1989) recursive utility model, evaluates the model's ability to fit asset return data relative to other asset pricing models, and investigates the implications of such estimates for the unobservable aggregate wealth return. Our empirical results indicate that the estimated relative risk aversion parameter ranges from 17 to 60, with higher values for aggregate consumption…

利用面板数据估计溢出效应：课堂应用AI 解读

Obtaining consistent estimates of spillovers in an educational context is hampered by at least two issues: selection into peer groups and peer effects emanating from unobservable characteristics. We develop an algorithm for estimating spillovers using panel data that addresses both of these problems. The key innovation is to allow the spillover to operate through the fixed effects of a student's peers. The only data requirements are multiple outcomes per student and…

评估 Rothstein 对教师增值模型的批评AI 解读

Value-added models of teacher effectiveness yield consistent estimates of teacher quality under the assumption that students are randomly assigned to classrooms conditional on ability. Rothstein (2010) tested and rejected this underlying sorting assumption, casting doubt on the usefulness of the value-added framework. In this paper, I illustrate that the falsification tests employed by Rothstein perform quite poorly in small samples and I propose an alternative testing…