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改进错误覆盖陈述率调整的置信区间AI 解读

Abstract This study addresses the challenges of inference following selection in fields like clinical trials, genome-wide association studies, and functional magnetic resonance imaging, where traditional methods like simultaneous confidence intervals (CIs) might be too conservative. We introduce an improved false coverage-statement rate controlling CIs, when the selection is done by passing a threshold in a certain direction. The CIs for the selected parameters are similar…

具有排斥与吸引原子的贝叶斯混合模型AI 解读

Abstract The study of almost surely discrete random probability measures is an active line of research in Bayesian non-parametrics. The idea of assuming interaction across the atoms of the random probability measure has recently spurred significant interest in the context of Bayesian mixture models. This allows the definition of priors that encourage well-separated and interpretable clusters. In this work, we provide a unified framework for the construction and the Bayesian…

列子集选择的统计视角AI 解读

Abstract We consider the problem of selecting a small subset of representative variables from a large dataset. In the computer science literature, this dimensionality reduction problem is typically formalized as column subset selection (CSS). Meanwhile, the typical statistical formalization is to find an information-maximizing set of principal variables. This paper shows that these two approaches are equivalent, and moreover, both can be viewed as maximum-likelihood…

SymmPI：具有群对称性数据的预测推断AI 解读

Abstract Quantifying the uncertainty of predictions is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed under a variety of assumptions, often—for instance, in standard conformal prediction—relying on the invariance of the distribution of the data under special groups of transformations such as permutation groups. Moreover, many existing methods for predictive inference aim to predict unobserved outcomes in sequences of feature-outcome…

用于贝叶斯多视图聚类的乘积中心狄利克雷过程AI 解读

Abstract While there is an immense literature on Bayesian methods for clustering, the multiview case has received little attention. This problem focuses on obtaining distinct but statistically dependent clusterings in a common set of entities for different data types. For example, clustering patients into subgroups with subgroup membership varying according to the domain of the patient variables. A challenge is how to model the across-view dependence between the partitions…

通过序贯蒙特卡洛实现无偏且一致的嵌套采样AI 解读

Abstract We introduce a new class of sequential Monte Carlo methods which reformulates the essence of the nested sampling (NS) method of Skilling in terms of sequential Monte Carlo techniques. Two new algorithms are proposed: nested sampling via sequential Monte Carlo (NS-SMC) and adaptive nested sampling via sequential Monte Carlo (ANS-SMC). The new framework allows convergence results to be obtained in the setting when Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used to produce new…

聚焦对象的置信保障：具有选择条件覆盖率的保形预测AI 解读

Abstract Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific test unit(s) of interest, requiring uncertainty quantification tailored to these focal units. In such cases, marginally valid conformal prediction intervals may fail to provide valid coverage for the focal unit(s) due to selection…

海量数据线性分类的多分辨率子抽样AI 解读

Abstract Subsampling is one of the popular methods to balance statistical efficiency and computational efficiency in the big data era. Most approaches aim to select informative or representative sample points to achieve good overall information of the full data. The present work takes the view that sampling techniques are recommended for the region we focus on and summary measures are enough to collect the information for the rest according to a well-designed data…

凸性与统计关联度量AI 解读

Abstract Recent investigations on the measures of statistical association highlight essential properties such as zero-independence (the measure is zero if and only if the random variables are independent), monotonicity under information refinement, and max-functionality (the measure of association is maximal if and only if we are in the presence of a deterministic (noiseless) dependence). An open question concerns the reasons why measures of statistical associations satisfy…

通过下注构造序贯蒙特卡洛检验AI 解读

Abstract In a Monte Carlo test, the observed dataset is fixed, and several resampled or permuted versions of the dataset are generated in order to test a null hypothesis that the original dataset is exchangeable with the resampled/permuted ones. Sequential Monte Carlo tests aim to save computational resources by generating these additional datasets sequentially one by one and potentially stopping early. While earlier tests yield valid inference at a particular prespecified…

模块化贝叶斯推断中切断反馈的一般框架AI 解读

Abstract Standard Bayesian inference enables building models that combine information from various sources, but this inference may not be reliable if components of the model are misspecified. Cut inference, a particular type of modularized Bayesian inference, is an alternative that splits a model into modules and cuts the feedback from any suspect module. Previous studies have focused on a two module case, but a more general definition of a ‘module’ remains unclear. We…

高维广义线性模型部分惩罚检验的强 Oracle 保证AI 解读

Abstract Partial penalized tests provide flexible approaches to testing linear hypotheses in high-dimensional generalized linear models. However, because the estimators used in these tests are local minimizers of potentially nonconvex folded-concave penalized objectives, the solutions one computes in practice may not coincide with the unknown local minima for which we have nice theoretical guarantees. To close this gap between theory and computation, we introduce local…

具有错误覆盖率控制的信息性共形预测集选择AI 解读

Abstract In supervised learning, including regression and classification, conformal methods provide prediction sets for the outcome/label with finite sample coverage for any machine learning predictor. We consider here the case where such prediction sets come after a selection process. The selection process requires that the selected prediction sets be ‘informative’ in a well-defined sense. We consider both the classification and regression settings where the analyst may…

贝叶斯惩罚经验似然与马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛抽样AI 解读

Abstract In this study, we introduce a novel methodological framework called Bayesian penalized empirical likelihood (BPEL), designed to address the computational challenges inherent in empirical likelihood (EL) approaches. Our approach has two primary objectives: (i) to enhance the inherent flexibility of EL in accommodating diverse model conditions, and (ii) to facilitate the use of well-established Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling schemes as a convenient alternative to…

具有条件覆盖保证的共形预测AI 解读

Abstract We consider the problem of constructing distribution-free prediction sets with finite-sample conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to provide exact conditional coverage universally in finite samples. Thus, most popular methods only guarantee marginal coverage over the covariates or are restricted to a limited set of conditional targets, e.g. coverage over a finite set of prespecified subgroups. This paper bridges this gap by defining a…

提高观察性区组设计敏感度的条件化策略AI 解读

Abstract In an observational block design, there are I blocks of J individuals, typically with one treated individual and J−1 controls; however, unlike a randomized block design, individuals were not randomly assigned to treatment or control. To be convincing, an observational block design must demonstrate that an ostensible treatment effect is not actually a consequence of small or moderate unmeasured biases of treatment assignment in the absence of a treatment effect. It…

面向处理效应异质性学习的自适应实验AI 解读

Abstract Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity has become an increasingly popular task in various fields, as it helps design personalized advertisements in e-commerce or targeted treatment in biomedical studies. However, most of the existing work in this research area focused on either analysing observational data based on strong causal assumptions or conducting post hoc analyses of randomized controlled trial data, and there has been limited effort dedicated to the…

半参数后验修正AI 解读

Abstract We present a new approach to semiparametric inference using corrected posterior distributions. The method allows us to leverage the adaptivity, regularization, and predictive power of nonparametric Bayesian procedures to estimate low-dimensional functionals of interest without being restricted by the holistic Bayesian formalism. Starting from a conventional posterior on the whole data-generating distribution, we correct the marginal posterior for each functional of…

两阶段拒绝式抽样及其渐近性质AI 解读

Abstract Rejective sampling improves design and estimation efficiency of single-phase sampling when auxiliary information in a finite population is available. When such auxiliary information is unavailable, we propose to use two-phase rejective sampling (TPRS), which involves measuring auxiliary variables for the sample of units in the first phase, followed by the implementation of rejective sampling for the outcome in the second phase. We explore the asymptotic design…

数据增强不变的流形学习AI 解读

Abstract Data augmentation is a widely used technique and an essential ingredient in the recent advance in self-supervised representation learning. By preserving the similarity between augmented data, the resulting data representation can improve various downstream analyses and achieve state-of-the-art performance in many applications. Despite the empirical effectiveness, most existing methods lack theoretical understanding under a general nonlinear setting. To fill this…

一般协方差下超高维均值的随机化经验似然检验AI 解读

Abstract This article proposes a calibrated empirical likelihood test for ultra-high dimensional means that incorporates multiple projections. Under weak moment conditions on the distributions of data, we analyse all possible asymptotic distributions of the proposed test statistic in different scenarios. To determine the critical value and enhance test power, we employ the random symmetrization method based on the group of sign flips and use multiple selected projections.…

高斯变分近似中Cholesky因子的解析自然梯度更新AI 解读

Abstract Natural gradients can improve convergence in stochastic variational inference significantly but inverting the Fisher information matrix is daunting in high dimensions. Moreover, in Gaussian variational approximation, natural gradient updates of the precision matrix do not ensure positive definiteness. To tackle this issue, we derive analytic natural gradient updates of the Cholesky factor of the covariance or precision matrix and consider sparsity constraints…

高维混合专家模型的预测集AI 解读

Abstract Large datasets make it possible to build predictive models that can capture heterogenous relationships between the response variable and features. The mixture of high-dimensional linear experts model posits that observations come from a mixture of high-dimensional linear regression models, where the mixture weights are themselves feature-dependent. In this article, we show how to construct valid prediction sets for an ℓ1-penalized mixture of experts model in the…

面向大规模时空协变量的空间效应检测回归AI 解读

Abstract We develop a Spatial Effect Detection Regression (SEDR) model to capture the nonlinear and irregular effects of high-dimensional spatio-temporal predictors on a scalar outcome. Specifically, we assume that both the component and the coefficient functions in the SEDR are unknown smooth functions of location and time. This allows us to leverage spatially and temporally correlated information, transforming the curse of dimensionality into a blessing, as confirmed by…