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泊松数据的多尺度平滑AI 解读

Summary The paper introduces a framework for non-linear multiscale decompositions of Poisson data that have piecewise smooth intensity curves. The key concept is conditioning on the sum of the observations that are involved in the computation of a given multiscale coefficient. Within this framework, most classical wavelet thresholding schemes for data with additive homoscedastic noise can be used. Any family of wavelet transforms (orthogonal, biorthogonal or second…

异质子总体回归中的充分降维AI 解读

Summary Sliced inverse regression is one of the widely used dimension reduction methods. Chiaromonte and co-workers extended this method to regressions with qualitative predictors and developed a method, partial sliced inverse regression, under the assumption that the covariance matrices of the continuous predictors are constant across the levels of the qualitative predictor. We extend partial sliced inverse regression by removing the restrictive homogeneous covariance…

一般重复测量问题中的半参数估计AI 解读

Summary The paper considers a wide class of semiparametric problems with a parametric part for some covariate effects and repeated evaluations of a nonparametric function. Special cases in our approach include marginal models for longitudinal or clustered data, conditional logistic regression for matched case–control studies, multivariate measurement error models, generalized linear mixed models with a semiparametric component, and many others. We propose profile kernel and…

分组变量回归中的模型选择与估计AI 解读

Summary We consider the problem of selecting grouped variables (factors) for accurate prediction in regression. Such a problem arises naturally in many practical situations with the multifactor analysis-of-variance problem as the most important and well-known example. Instead of selecting factors by stepwise backward elimination, we focus on the accuracy of estimation and consider extensions of the lasso, the LARS algorithm and the non-negative garrotte for factor selection.…

函数主成分分析的惩罚样条模型AI 解读

Summary We propose an iterative estimation procedure for performing functional principal component analysis. The procedure aims at functional or longitudinal data where the repeated measurements from the same subject are correlated. An increasingly popular smoothing approach, penalized spline regression, is used to represent the mean function. This allows straightforward incorporation of covariates and simple implementation of approximate inference procedures for…

总能实现良好的随机化序贯概率预测AI 解读

Summary Building on the game theoretic framework for probability, we show that it is possible, using randomization, to make sequential probability forecasts that will pass any given battery of statistical tests. This result, an easy consequence of von Neumann's minimax theorem, simplifies and generalizes work by earlier researchers.

估计分布端点的贝叶斯似然方法AI 解读

Summary We consider maximum likelihood methods for estimating the end point of a distribution. The likelihood function is modified by a prior distribution that is imposed on the location parameter. The prior is explicit and meaningful, and has a general form that adapts itself to different settings. Results on convergence rates and limiting distributions are given. In particular, it is shown that the limiting distribution is non-normal in non-regular cases. Parametric…

Summary We develop a new class of time continuous autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (CARFIMA) models which are useful for modelling regularly spaced and irregu-larly spaced discrete time long memory data. We derive the autocovariance function of a stationary CARFIMA model and study maximum likelihood estimation of a regression model with CARFIMA errors, based on discrete time data and via the innovations algorithm. It is shown that the maximum likelihood…

基于检验统计量的贝叶斯因子AI 解读

Summary Traditionally, the use of Bayes factors has required the specification of proper prior distributions on model parameters that are implicit to both null and alternative hypotheses. I describe an approach to defining Bayes factors based on modelling test statistics. Because the distributions of test statistics do not depend on unknown model parameters, this approach eliminates much of the subjectivity that is normally associated with the definition of Bayes factors.…

规则监测数据的统计方法AI 解读

Summary Meteorological and environmental data that are collected at regular time intervals on a fixed monitoring network can be usefully studied combining ideas from multiple time series and spatial statistics, particularly when there are little or no missing data. This work investigates methods for modelling such data and ways of approximating the associated likelihood functions. Models for processes on the sphere crossed with time are emphasized, especially models that are…

空间点过程的残差分析（附讨论）AI 解读

Summary We define residuals for point process models fitted to spatial point pattern data, and we propose diagnostic plots based on them. The residuals apply to any point process model that has a conditional intensity; the model may exhibit spatial heterogeneity, interpoint interaction and dependence on spatial covariates. Some existing ad hoc methods for model checking (quadrat counts, scan statistic, kernel smoothed intensity and Berman's diagnostic) are recovered as…

摘要暂缺

利用随机图对结构化人群中的随机多类型传染病模型进行贝叶斯推断AI 解读

Summary The paper is concerned with new methodology for statistical inference for final outcome infectious disease data using certain structured population stochastic epidemic models. A major obstacle to inference for such models is that the likelihood is both analytically and numerically intractable. The approach that is taken here is to impute missing information in the form of a random graph that describes the potential infectious contacts between individuals. This level…

通过超球面对数样条建模方向性离散程度AI 解读

Summary We introduce the directionally dispersed class of multivariate distributions, a generalization of the elliptical class. By allowing dispersion of multivariate random variables to vary with direction it is possible to generate a very wide and flexible class of distributions. Directionally dispersed distributions have a simple form for their density, which extends a spherically symmetric density function by including a function D modelling directional dispersion. Under…

区间删失与左截断下的非参数极大似然估计AI 解读

Summary A graph theoretical approach is employed to describe the support set of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator for the cumulative distribution function given interval-censored and left-truncated data. A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator is then derived. Two previously analysed data sets are revisited.

真实零假设比例的估计及其在 DNA 微阵列数据中的应用AI 解读

Summary We consider the problem of estimating the proportion of true null hypotheses, π0, in a multiple-hypothesis set-up. The tests are based on observed p-values. We first review published estimators based on the estimator that was suggested by Schweder and Spjøtvoll. Then we derive new estimators based on nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation of the p-value density, restricting to decreasing and convex decreasing densities. The estimators of π0 are all derived under…

估计型估计方程：聚类与纵向数据的半参数推断AI 解读

Summary We introduce a flexible marginal modelling approach for statistical inference for clustered and longitudinal data under minimal assumptions. This estimated estimating equations approach is semiparametric and the proposed models are fitted by quasi-likelihood regression, where the unknown marginal means are a function of the fixed effects linear predictor with unknown smooth link, and variance–covariance is an unknown smooth function of the marginal means. We propose…

局部模型不确定性与不完整数据偏差（含讨论）AI 解读

Summary Problems of the analysis of data with incomplete observations are all too familiar in statistics. They are doubly difficult if we are also uncertain about the choice of model. We propose a general formulation for the discussion of such problems and develop approximations to the resulting bias of maximum likelihood estimates on the assumption that model departures are small. Loss of efficiency in parameter estimation due to incompleteness in the data has a dual…

基于邻接关系比较两个多元分布的精确无分布检验AI 解读

Summary A new test is proposed comparing two multivariate distributions by using distances between observations. Unlike earlier tests using interpoint distances, the new test statistic has a known exact distribution and is exactly distribution free. The interpoint distances are used to construct an optimal non-bipartite matching, i.e. a matching of the observations into disjoint pairs to minimize the total distance within pairs. The cross-match statistic is the number of…

准模型辅助框架下调查数据的校准插补AI 解读

Summary We propose to use calibrated imputation to compensate for missing values. This technique consists of finding final imputed values that are as close as possible to preliminary imputed values and are calibrated to satisfy constraints. Preliminary imputed values, potentially justified by an imputation model, are obtained through deterministic single imputation. Using appropriate constraints, the resulting imputed estimator is asymptotically unbiased for estimation of…

错误发现数量的方差AI 解读

Summary In high throughput genomic work, a very large number d of hypotheses are tested based on n≪d data samples. The large number of tests necessitates an adjustment for false discoveries in which a true null hypothesis was rejected. The expected number of false discoveries is easy to obtain. Dependences between the hypothesis tests greatly affect the variance of the number of false discoveries. Assuming that the tests are independent gives an inadequate variance formula.…

离散观测马尔可夫跳跃过程的统计推断AI 解读

Summary Likelihood inference for discretely observed Markov jump processes with finite state space is investigated. The existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimator of the intensity matrix are investigated. This topic is closely related to the imbedding problem for Markov chains. It is demonstrated that the maximum likelihood estimator can be found either by the EM algorithm or by a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. When the maximum likelihood estimator…

无限方差自回归模型的自加权最小绝对偏差估计AI 解读

Summary How to undertake statistical inference for infinite variance autoregressive models has been a long-standing open problem. To solve this problem, we propose a self-weighted least absolute deviation estimator and show that this estimator is asymptotically normal if the density of errors and its derivative are uniformly bounded. Furthermore, a Wald test statistic is developed for the linear restriction on the parameters, and it is shown to have non-trivial local power.…

袋装最近邻分类器的性质AI 解读

Summary It is shown that bagging, a computationally intensive method, asymptotically improves the performance of nearest neighbour classifiers provided that the resample size is less than 69% of the actual sample size, in the case of with-replacement bagging, or less than 50% of the sample size, for without-replacement bagging. However, for larger sampling fractions there is no asymptotic difference between the risk of the regular nearest neighbour classifier and its bagged…