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图形马尔可夫模型的边际对数线性参数AI 解读

Summary Marginal log-linear (MLL) models provide a flexible approach to multivariate discrete data. MLL parameterizations under linear constraints induce a wide variety of models, including models that are defined by conditional independences. We introduce a subclass of MLL models which correspond to acyclic directed mixed graphs under the usual global Markov property. We characterize for precisely which graphs the resulting parameterization is variation independent. The MLL…

惩罚样条两种框架下的平滑参数选择AI 解读

Summary There are two popular smoothing parameter selection methods for spline smoothing. First, smoothing parameters can be estimated by minimizing criteria that approximate the average mean-squared error of the regression function estimator. Second, the maximum likelihood paradigm can be employed, under the assumption that the regression function is a realization of some stochastic process. The asymptotic properties of both smoothing parameter estimators for penalized…

离散对数凹最大似然估计的渐近理论及应用AI 解读

Summary The assumption of log-concavity is a flexible and appealing non-parametric shape constraint in distribution modelling. In this work, we study the log-concave maximum likelihood estimator of a probability mass function. We show that the maximum likelihood estimator is strongly consistent and we derive its pointwise asymptotic theory under both the well-specified and misspecified settings. Our asymptotic results are used to calculate confidence intervals for the true…

空间样条回归模型AI 解读

Summary We describe a model for the analysis of data distributed over irregularly shaped spatial domains with complex boundaries, strong concavities and interior holes. Adopting an approach that is typical of functional data analysis, we propose a spatial spline regression model that is computationally efficient, allows for spatially distributed covariate information and can impose various conditions over the boundaries of the domain. Accurate surface estimation is achieved…

概率因果性与相互依赖模式集合的检测AI 解读

Summary Interdependent effects are usually distinguished from statistical interaction by using the sufficient causes framework. This almost always involves expressing probability distributions as deterministic logic functions, where certain conditions invariably produce or prevent an outcome. Using an idea from the philosophy literature, that a cause is defined as an event which increases the probability of an outcome, a probabilistic sufficient causes framework is developed…

快速二维 P 样条：三明治平滑器AI 解读

Summary We propose a fast penalized spline method for bivariate smoothing. Univariate P-spline smoothers are applied simultaneously along both co-ordinates. The new smoother has a sandwich form which suggested the name ‘sandwich smoother’ to a referee. The sandwich smoother has a tensor product structure that simplifies an asymptotic analysis and it can be fast computed. We derive a local central limit theorem for the sandwich smoother, with simple expressions for the…

用相依归一化随机测度混合模型比较分布AI 解读

Summary A methodology for the simultaneous Bayesian non-parametric modelling of several distributions is developed. Our approach uses normalized random measures with independent increments and builds dependence through the superposition of shared processes. The properties of the prior are described and the modelling possibilities of this framework are explored in detail. Efficient slice sampling methods are developed for inference. Various posterior summaries are introduced…

微分几何最小角回归：稀疏广义线性模型方法AI 解读

Summary Sparsity is an essential feature of many contemporary data problems. Remote sensing, various forms of automated screening and other high throughput measurement devices collect a large amount of information, typically about few independent statistical subjects or units. In certain cases it is reasonable to assume that the underlying process generating the data is itself sparse, in the sense that only a few of the measured variables are involved in the process. We…

大规模多重检验的扩展似然方法AI 解读

Summary To date, only frequentist, Bayesian and empirical Bayes approaches have been studied for the large-scale inference problem of testing simultaneously hundreds or thousands of hypotheses. Their derivations start with some summarizing statistics without modelling the basic responses. As a consequence testing procedures have been developed without necessarily checking model assumptions, and empirical null distributions are needed to avoid the problem of rejecting all…

高维惩罚似然中的调节参数选择AI 解读

Summary Determining how to select the tuning parameter appropriately is essential in penalized likelihood methods for high dimensional data analysis. We examine this problem in the setting of penalized likelihood methods for generalized linear models, where the dimensionality of covariates p is allowed to increase exponentially with the sample size n. We propose to select the tuning parameter by optimizing the generalized information criterion with an appropriate model…

基于条件数正则化的协方差估计AI 解读

Summary Estimation of high dimensional covariance matrices is known to be a difficult problem, has many applications and is of current interest to the larger statistics community. In many applications including the so-called ‘large p, small n’ setting, the estimate of the covariance matrix is required to be not only invertible but also well conditioned. Although many regularization schemes attempt to do this, none of them address the ill conditioning problem directly. We…

SMC²：状态空间模型序贯分析的高效算法AI 解读

Summary We consider the generic problem of performing sequential Bayesian inference in a state space model with observation process y, state process x and fixed parameter θ. An idealized approach would be to apply the iterated batch importance sampling algorithm of Chopin. This is a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in the θ-dimension, that samples values of θ, reweights iteratively these values by using the likelihood increments pyt∣y1:t−1,θ and rejuvenates the θ-particles…

元分析中异质性方差的估计AI 解读

Summary Several new estimators of the between-study variability in a heterogeneous random effects meta-analysis model are derived. One is the unbiased statistic which is locally optimal for small values of the parameter. Others are Bayes procedures within a class of quadratic statistics for a diffuse prior with different choices of the prior mean. These estimators are compared with the DerSimonian–Laird procedure and the Hedges statistic in particular via the quadratic risk…

随机实验中通过后分层调整处理效应估计AI 解读

Summary Experimenters often use post-stratification to adjust estimates. Post-stratification is akin to blocking, except that the number of treated units in each stratum is a random variable because stratification occurs after treatment assignment. We analyse both post-stratification and blocking under the Neyman–Rubin model and compare the efficiency of these designs. We derive the variances for a post-stratified estimator and a simple difference-in-means estimator under…

具有相依误差的线性模型推断AI 解读

Summary The paper is concerned with inference for linear models with fixed regressors and weakly dependent stationary time series errors. Theoretically, we obtain asymptotic normality for the M-estimator of the regression parameter under mild conditions and establish a uniform Bahadur representation for recursive M-estimators. Methodologically, we extend the recently proposed self-normalized approach of Shao from stationary time series to the regression set-up, where the…

条件异方差过程幂函数的最优预测AI 解读

Summary In conditionally heteroscedastic models, the optimal prediction of powers, or logarithms, of the absolute value has a simple expression in terms of the volatility and an expectation involving the independent process. A natural procedure for estimating this prediction is to estimate the volatility in the first step, for instance by Gaussian quasi-maximum-likelihood or by least absolute deviations, and to use empirical means based on rescaled innovations to estimate…

平稳带标记 Gibbs 点过程的残差与拟合优度检验AI 解读

Summary The inspection of residuals is a fundamental step for investigating the quality of adjustment of a parametric model to data. For spatial point processes, the concept of residuals has been recently proposed as an empirical counterpart of the Campbell equilibrium equation for marked Gibbs point processes. The paper focuses on stationary marked Gibbs point processes and deals with asymptotic properties of residuals for such processes. In particular, the consistency and…

传染病数据的非参数生存分析AI 解读

Summary The paper develops non-parametric methods based on contact intervals for the analysis of infectious disease data. The contact interval from person i to person j is the time between the onset of infectiousness in i and infectious contact from i to j, where we define infectious contact as a contact sufficient to infect a susceptible individual. The hazard function of the contact interval distribution equals the hazard of infectious contact from i to j, so it provides a…

允许高维协变量的异方差部分线性单指标模型：双重稳健与有效估计AI 解读

Summary We study the heteroscedastic partially linear single-index model with an unspecified error variance function, which allows for high dimensional covariates in both the linear and the single-index components of the mean function. We propose a class of consistent estimators of the parameters by using a proper weighting strategy. An interesting finding is that the linearity condition which is widely assumed in the dimension reduction literature is not necessary for…

超高维单指标风险率模型的独立筛选AI 解读

Summary In data sets with many more features than observations, independent screening based on all univariate regression models leads to a computationally convenient variable selection method. Recent efforts have shown that, in the case of generalized linear models, independent screening may suffice to capture all relevant features with high probability, even in ultrahigh dimension. It is unclear whether this formal sure screening property is attainable when the response is…

病例对照数据二次分析中同方差回归的稳健估计AI 解读

Summary Primary analysis of case–control studies focuses on the relationship between disease D and a set of covariates of interest (Y, X). A secondary application of the case–control study, which is often invoked in modern genetic epidemiologic association studies, is to investigate the interrelationship between the covariates themselves. The task is complicated owing to the case–control sampling, where the regression of Y on X is different from what it is in the population.…

延迟响应的组序贯检验（附讨论）AI 解读

Summary Group sequential methods are used routinely to monitor clinical trials and to provide early stopping when there is evidence of a treatment effect, a lack of an effect or concerns about patient safety. In many studies, the response of clinical interest is measured some time after the start of treatment and there are subjects at each interim analysis who have been treated but are yet to respond. We formulate a new form of group sequential test which gives a proper…

空间广义线性混合模型的降维与空间混杂缓解AI 解读

Summary Non-Gaussian spatial data are very common in many disciplines. For instance, count data are common in disease mapping, and binary data are common in ecology. When fitting spatial regressions for such data, one needs to account for dependence to ensure reliable inference for the regression coefficients. The spatial generalized linear mixed model offers a very popular and flexible approach to modelling such data, but this model suffers from two major shortcomings:…

纵向数据非参数回归函数的新局部估计方法AI 解读

Summary The paper develops a new estimation of non-parametric regression functions for clustered or longitudinal data. We propose to use Cholesky decomposition and profile least squares techniques to estimate the correlation structure and regression function simultaneously. We further prove that the estimator proposed is as asymptotically efficient as if the covariance matrix were known. A Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted to examine the finite sample performance of…